Understanding Sabermetrics (37 page)

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Authors: Gabriel B. Costa,Michael R. Huber,John T. Saccoma

BOOK: Understanding Sabermetrics
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MA 488 TERM-END EXAMINATION
 
READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS CAREFULLY BEFORE STARTING WORK.
1. Place all textbooks, etc., neatly in the hallway.
2. Print your name and section on every sheet used.
3. For this examination, references authorized are:
a. Notes
b. Calculator
c. Laptop computer (no wireless/Internet access)
 
4. Sufficient work is required to indicate clearly the method of reasoning and the operations performed. SHOW ALL WORK. Clearly indicate your final answer.
5. All work written on the WPR will be graded unless marked through or explicitly marked with words to the effect of “do not grade.”
6. Work only on the front side of a sheet of paper. If you need more space, use a separate sheet for each problem continued. Clearly indicate which problem is continued by writing “
Cont’d on sheet _____
” on the problem sheet and “
Prob ____ cont’d
” on the additional sheet. Be sure to put your name on the continuation sheet.
7. Early departure is authorized. Place completed WPRs in the instructor folder on the instructor’s desk.
 
Question 1
Use sabermetrical arguments to determine the best season enjoyed by the following six Hall-of-Fame center fielders:
 
Question 2
Discuss the both the validity and the shortcomings of the concept of the
equivalence coefficient
. Modify the instrument so as to make it a more realistic model for prediction.
 
 
 
Question 3
Consider the following five pitchers enshrined in the Hall of Fame:
Steve Carlton
Whitey Ford
Sandy Koufax
Nolan Ryan
Tom Seaver
 
Determine the pitcher with the highest proficiency (P) using the following model:
 
Question 4
Compare the records of Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas over the years 1990- 1995.
 
Question 5
Discuss sabermetrics. Has it really changed how professional baseball is viewed and assessed? Include both qualitative and quantitative components, as well as personal opinions, in your discussion.
MA 488 HALL OF FAME IDENTIFICATIONS
 
1. I was known as “The Flying Dutchman” and was a member of the first class, elected in 1936.
2. I was the third baseman in Connie Mack’s famed “$100,000 Infield” of the early 1900s, and I had a very powerful nickname.
3. I am actually in the Football Hall of Fame. Babe Ruth replaced me as an outfielder when he came to the Yankees.
4. I am also in the Football Hall of Fame (as a player) and in the Baseball Hall of Fame as an umpire.
5. Yankee backstop Bill Dickey “learned me” how to catch.
6. During the latter years of my life, I was known as “Baseball’s Greatest Living Player,” but I was not immediately elected to the Hall of Fame when I retired.
7. I hit the first World Series home run in Yankee Stadium, but I’m mostly remembered as a manager.
8. Our first names are Robert, Vernon and Steve, but we were all known as “Lefty.”
9. I was known as “The Mechanical Man” and played second base for some great Tiger teams.
10. In 1910, New York columnist Franklin P. Adams wrote a famous poem which immortalized the three of us.
11. I was known as “The Grey Eagle” when I roamed center field during the first quarter of the 20th century.
12. I have the highest percentage of votes ever garnered for an elected member of the Hall of Fame.
13. We played in different eras, but both of us suffered tragic and premature deaths, so any waiting periods before our elections were waived.
14. I was known as “Little Napoleon.”
15. I was honored to be called the “Grand Old Man of Baseball.”
16. I was the last of the “legitimate” spitball pitchers and was known as “Old Stubblebeard.”
17. I hit a line drive which broke Dizzy Dean’s toe in the 1937 All-Star Game.
18. Ty Cobb helped me with my hitting; so much so, that I won four American League batting titles in alternate years in the 1920s.
 
 
(J) Student Feedback
 
Over the years, we have had very few complaints about our courses on sabermetrics. Many times, especially with the MATH 1011 course, students ask about the possibility of a “Sabermetrics II” course or the feasibility of offering the course for three credits. All students complete end-of-course surveys which attempt to assess the learning of the student in the course. How was the mix of mathematics with “baseball pedagogy”? Did the projects and exams sufficiently test their knowledge? As mentioned above, some students have submitted papers or given presentations at regional mathematics meetings, based on their sabermetrics projects. Feedback is always requested, and we have been pleased with the results.
Baseball is still popular. Despite the surrounding controversies, the national pastime is still that. It would be difficult to conceive of many things which would be more enjoyable than teaching people about baseball.
 
References: An Informal Bibliography and Websites
 
Books
 
Albert, Jim, and Jay Bennett.
Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game
(Rev. Ed.). New York: Copernicus Books, 2003.
Hoban, Michael.
Baseball’s Complete Players: Ratings of Total-Season Performance for the Greatest Players of the 20th Century.
Jefferson, N.C.: McFarland, 2000.
James, Bill.
The Bill James Baseball Abstract
. (Various editions) New York: Ballantine Books.
_____.
The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract
. (Various editions) New York: Villard Books.
_____, John Dewan, Neil Munro, and Don Zminda, eds.
STATS

ALL-TIME baseball Sourcebook
. Skokie, IL: STATS, Inc, 1998.
_____, and Jim Henzler.
Win Shares
. Morton Grove, IL: STATS, Inc., 2002.
Jenkinson, Bill.
The Year Babe Ruth hit 104 Home Runs
. New York: Carroll and Graf Publishers, 2007.
Schwartz, Alan.
The Numbers Game
. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2004.
Thorn, John, and Pete Palmer.
The Hidden Game of Baseball
. New York: Doubleday, 1985.
Thorn, John, and Pete Palmer, eds.
Total Baseball
. 2nd ed. New York: Warner Books, 1991.
Williams, Ted, and Jim Prime.
Ted Williams’ Hit List
. Indianapolis: Masters, 1996.
Articles
 
Albert, J. “Exploring baseball hitting data: what about those breakdown statistics?”
Journal of the American Statistical Association
89 (1994), pp. 1066-1074.
Lindsey, G. “An Investigation of Strategies in Baseball.”
Operations Research
(1963), pp. 120-127.
Smith, D. “Maury Wills and the Value of a Stolen Base.”
Baseball Research Journal
(1980).
Web Sites
 
Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
.
Baseball-Reference.com
: Major League Baseball Statistics and History Sports Reference, Inc.
http://www.baseball-reference.com
.
Baseball Think Factory.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org
.
“Consecutive Games Hitting Streaks.”
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/feats/feats-streak.shtml
.
High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site.
http://www.highboskage.com
.

Official Rules
.” Major League Baseball.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/foreword.jsp
.
Paul Wendt homepage.
http://world.std.com/~pgw
.
POP™ AWARD. Perfect Players Partners Ltd.
http://www.popaward.com/htdocs/Index.htm
.
Rob Neyer homepage.
http://www.robneyer.com
.
“Science of Baseball.” Exploratorium.
Sinins Lee. “Around the Majors.”
The Hardball Times
.
http://www.hardballtimes. com/main/atm
.
Tango on Baseball. Tom N. Tango.
http://www.tangotiger.net
.
Index
 
 
Aaron, Hank
 
Alexander, Grover Cleveland (“Pete”)
 
 
Base-out percentage (BOP)
 
The Baseball Abstract
 
Batting factor (ABF)
 
Batting runs (BR)
 
Batting runs created (BRC)
 
Beat Navy!
 
Beltran, Carlos
 
Bench, Johnny
 
Berra, Yogi
 
Blair, Paul

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