To John (18 page)

From KCIF

'
미국은
15
일
부채한도
시한
넘겨
16
일부터
비상조치
'

'US passed the
deadline of debt limit on 15th. From 16th, activate emergency
measures.
'

'This is funny. No news in
NBCnews. Is there a possibility of panic? Is that why they shut up
the mouth? Or they got so used to it.'

'The emergency
debt limit measurers was started today on 16th. Not a plan anymore.
$18.1 trillion. Wa...'

'Interesting. What can be the
measures? Quick fix. Still funny. Why do they do the sh sh thing?
No news in Bloombergbusiness either. Something fish...'

"John, did the news break?"

"Yap."

"All night long or all week
long?"

"Ja... I will hand it over."

'Think. Instead of sucking money
out of the old and the disabled. Think.'

'Is Fed belonging to the
government or a separate government?'

'It's a shame that Obama is a
professor of law not economics. He doesn't know how much they can
make a day with just one word. A pity. No wonder that they are
heading for another government shutdown. This time, possibly,
default, too. 16-day last time. This time? Shall we bet? Oh
no...'

GMT 20:45

6 hours ago, CNBC 'US debt to hit
ceiling again, and this time it could be worse.'

4 hours ago, The Times 'US
treasury looks to box of tricks as it hits debt limit.'

17 Mar 2015

'Europeans defy US to join
China-led development bank

France, Germany and Italy have all
agreed to follow Britain’s lead and join a China-led international
development bank, according to European officials, delivering a
blow to US efforts to keep leading western countries out of the new
institution.'(FT Breaking News)

'What a delightful news! Then
again, who wants to hang out with $18.1 tn debter? Too spooky.'

"We can make a breakthrough."

'Young Americans turn to tea?
Drink coffee. It's cheaper. Or come back to your fatherland.'

'So weird that there is no news
about hitting the debt ceiling. Deadly quiet before the typhoon. Or
maybe not. Everybody knows and I am the last one to know as usual.
There was an IMF warning 2013, this time, no warning either. No
news, no warning... What is going on?'

From bbc Oct 2013

'stop paying the money it owed US
Treasury bond holders. Investors, such as the Chinese government
and pension funds.'

'Oct 2013, the debt was around
$3tn. Mar 2015, the debt is $18.1tn. The US debt got 6 time for
just one and a half year.'

'The debt to China is still
$1.3tn. This means China did not buy any more US bonds since last
Oct 2013. US is excluded from Asian Development Bank funding. No
wonder.'

From wikipedia 'sovereign
default'

'If
potential lenders or bond purchasers begin to
suspect
that a
government may fail to pay back its debt, they may
demand a high interest rate in
compensation for the risk of default
. A dramatic rise in the interest rate faced by a government
due to fear that it will fail to honor its debt is sometimes called
a
sovereign debt
crisis
.'

'I think this explains the current
strong dollar and the Fed's fiddling with the interest rate. This
is why they are so quiet. The pusher of the interest rate is China.
China does not suspect? They perfectly well know. They will sell
the bonds at one go, at a proper time. When? Before the next
government shutdown. Pretty close. Or when they are ready. Asian
Developement Bank and CIPS(China International Payment
System).'

'Declaration of insolvency is
still the answer. No way out.'

'Still the question is where the
15tn came from. China did not buy any more.'

From RT

'US blow through $18.1tn debt
limit.'

18 Mar 2015

From KCIF

'US, 17% decrease of new
housing. 17% decrease within a month'

'FOMC. Economists are expecting
to get rid of the word 'patient'

'Be patient with what? If they
are not patient, what will happen? Who are they talking to? China
or US companies?'

'It's like asking 'Would you
like to die with honor, or without honor?''

'April 15 is a new dealine? I
remember the countdown one and a half year ago.'

'Still the key point is $18.1tn
debt. How can they pay back without making another war? Vietnam was
made by US exactly by the same reason. This time there is no
apparent enemy like Vietcom. The cold war is over. Where is your
world enemy?'

'Just amazing...'

'Don't you have a mere
£200,000, Sir? Such a shame. Then again, maybe you don't have to
waste your precious tax. Wait for one afternoon.'

'Dalio warns Fed of 1937-style
rate risk

Bridgewater founder say policy
shift could have unintended consequences (FT)'

What can be unintended
consequences?

'FCA bans trader over Libor
rigging'

Libor ring a bell...

'Wang Qishan visits US'

He is quite well known. His
purpose?

'Dollar rally needs US growth
underpinning

Some
say it is fuelled by
diverging
central bank
policy not a strengthening economy '

I was one of the Somes.

'Dalio warns Fed of 1937-style
rate risk

The US Federal Reserve risks
causing a 1937-style stock market slump when it finally moves to
raise interest rates, one of the world’s most powerful hedge fund
managers has warned.'

Homework was done three days
ago.

'Wang Qishan visits US'

He is quite well known. His
purpose? He is originally an economist. He goes to US. China is not
happy with US policy. That's it.

'I guess China wants their debt
payed back rather than blow away. They do not need a gesture. They
want US to get healthy rather than have another stroke. So, they
can get their debt back. Interest rate is like Oxytocin injection.
It will shoot up blood pressure instantly as it contracts the
muscle. You need an opposite. Blood thinner like aspirin 0.75mg a
day. What can be the equivalent to Aspirin? No more drug. Improving
one's physical constitution. It takes time. Of course.'

'So, this messy US economy policy
is the byproduct of Democrats and Republicans. The politicians. The
more important thing is who is holding the neck of China? The
internationalization of RMB. If they can make it quicker, for
example, even 3 month, 1.3tn can be nothing. Get off the fence and
make up your mind. You can say that to Yankees.'

'As for today 18/03/2015, 1 CNY =
0.160544 USD. This will be a historic record. Why? Haha... So
ridiculous to make me angry and laugh.'

From Wikipedia data,

'Among Renminbi hubs outside
China, or List of RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements, there is no USA.
What is going on? The third world war was started 2009 as China
started internationalizing RMB. The war is still going on... Right
now.'

'Fed drops pledge to be ‘patient’
on rate rises

The Federal Reserve has dropped
its pledge to be “patient” before raising interest rates, freeing
its hands to lift official borrowing costs for the first time in
nearly a decade.'(FT)

'So?'

The reason of the current strong
dollar is not what Fed is saying. It's the amount of dollars which
China or Japan are reserving. Maybe this is the last scene of Fed.
The final stage? Possible.

For example,
the above news was broken at GMT PM 6:18. Normally if Fed says they
will raise the interest, the dollar should rock high. This time.
Only the chart shows. The opposite. Euro the same. Why? I want a
tutor to answer my question.

(GBPUSD 2 screenshots. EURUSD 1
screenshot included)

19 Mar 2015

From KCIF

'
금년말
기준금리
1.125%
에서
0.625%
로
,
내년말
2.5%
에서
1.875%
로
하향전망

No need to be patient. Fed will
lower the interest rest from 1.125% to 0.625% at the end of this
year.'

'Only if there is no default
until 15th Apr...'

'And great. Anyway, I have zero
patience.'

Softly-softly message from the
Fed(FT Asia)

'You are killing me softly with
your song... This should be the theme song for next presidential
election.'

US Fed frees its hand to raise
rates(FT morning)

'Basically, it says we don't
know. Do what you like to do. A wise decision as they do not want
to be blamed for nothing.'

'Hang on. Fed had been holding
the horse by the reins for the last 10 years. Now they what? Common
sensically, what can happen to the horse and the jockey right in
the middle of a racing? Horse race like Grand National? For the
jockey, god helps him or her. For the horse, once it tastes the
freedom, it's hard to retrain it. It becomes useless as a racing
horse. Ask a horse specialist. If you try to rein it again, it goes
mental with bubbles in its mouth.'

Why markets cheered Fed
statement?

1. They don't have to Yellen
that often. (simply not glamorous whatever she says)

2. Fed up = sick of fiddling
with a word

3. I-knew-it kind of
attitude

5. 18tn debt. Game over.

"Hit and Run."

20 Mar 2015

"Morning John, do you know what is
going on with emergency measures for debt limit? 5th day already.
Pensions for the old and the disabled. And what else did the US
government shut down?"

From KCIF

'
FOMC March, less likely to raise the
interest rate, dollar is getting slow down and encouraged investing
psychology.'

'So, strong dollar has been
preventing investment in US? Of course. If you invest money in US
industry, there will not be that much you can get later. So why
invest in US?'

'Was is Loosebelt Franklin who
saved America from the Great Depression? New Deal policy? Built a
whole new industry? US need a new industry as shale oil industries,
weapon industries and NASA are dying. NASA sold its airport to
Google, dear. 80bn. Hang on. If you sell the whole NASA, how much
can you make? You can start a whole new life, even after paying the
debt, no cierto?'

'What's the point of going to
Mars if you have a sovereign default? Sell NASA.'

"John, what's up?"

"Something split."

"You mean schizo?"

"Possible..."

"Welll... at least schizo is
better than a mad dog, no? Not infectious, I mean."

'If US break another war for
their economy, they will be punished. God.'

'On March 6,
2015, public debt held by the public had reached $13.08 trillion or
about 74% of Q4 2014 GDP. Intragovernmental holdings stood at $5.07
trillion, giving a combined total public debt of
$18.15 trillion
or about
103% of Q4 2014 GDP.

People's Republic of China and
Japan at about $1.3 trillion and $1.2 trillion respectively =
2.5tn' (Wikipedia)

'Who is holdoing the rest of
debt? A mystery... The amount of the debt is at the level between
War and recession.'

'Oh no... I can't believe that
Fed took over FF(Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Decision by FHFA
Director Lockhart, the regulator of FF and the 12 Federal Home Loan
Banks.'

'What happened to 12 Federal
Home Loan Banks?'

'12tn debt has to be explained.
One and a half year ago, the debt was 3tn. Now 18tn. Ok 6tn is hold
by foreigners. 12 tn is owned by Americans? Who and how? Lockhart
said FF presents very large systemic risks. And Fed took it over.
Is this why they did Moonwalk the other way? Way above the earth?
Or no way on earth? Incredible...'

'FF owned or guaranteed $5.5
trillion of mortgages (57% of all US mortgages). FF went wrong. 57%
of all US mortgages went wrong... Fed took it over. Also what
happen if the mortgage company got busted? And Fed was fiddling
with the interest rate? Fuck off.'

'So shitty. I cannot summarize
this. I do not want to summarize this kind of shit.'

'12 Federal Home Loan Banks are
owned by over 7,500 regulated financial institutions from all 50
states, U.S. possessions, and territories.'

All quite fucked...

Because they are the creditors
of 12tn debt of the US government. So, if the government go
bankrupt, they are the ones to go with the US government. Not
China, nor Japan or any other foreign bodies. If they go with the
government, what will happen to the home owners who got the
mortgages either from FF or FHLB? 60%, apparently. If I have a
mortgage from a bank, and that bank go busted, what will happen to
my mortgage and my house? I will still pay the interest rate or
repayment as usual to whoever will take that bank.

Is this why Fed wants to raise
the interest rate? They took FF even the raised interest rate will
endanger the whole economy into another bubbles or recession?

Hang on. The whole thing sounds
so funny.

1. The debt of US gov became
18tn because Fed took FF.

2. Why? Because mortgage
borrowers could not pay the debt.

3.Why? No jobs.

4. Is recession already started
and serious in US?

If China or foreign banks take
over these, will Americans pay the mortgage to them? The Death
Pledge? Is this why US failed Deutche and Santander the other day?
They knew what is coming?