How We Know What Isn't So (36 page)

35
S. J. Gould (1982)
The panda’s thumb: More reflections on natural history
. New York: W. W. Norton.

36
F. Bacon (1960/1620)
The new organon and related writings.
New York: Liberal Arts Press.

37
J. E. Alcock (1981)
Parapsychology: Science or magic?
New York: Pergamon Press.

38
W. Allen (1972)
Without Feathers.
New York: Random House.

39
J. Randi (1982) Nostradamus: The prophet for all seasons.
Skeptical Inquirer, 7,
30-37.

40
National Research Council (1988, January)
American Psychological Association Monitor,
p. 7.

41
T. S. Kuhn (1962)
The structure of scientific revolutions.
Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Chapter 11.
Challenging Dubious Beliefs

1
D R. Lehman, R. O. Lempert, & R. E. Nisbett (1988)
The effects of graduate training on reasoning: Formal discipline and thinking about everyday-life events
.
American Psychologist, 43,
431-42.

2
M. W. Wagner & M. Monnet (1979) Attitudes of college professors toward extra-sensory perception.
Zetetic Scholar, 5,
7-16.

Abelson, Robert, 85-87

Adoption and subsequent conception, 1-3, 31

AIDS, risk to heterosexuals, 83,96,102-103, 107-11

Alcock, James, 178-79

Alien, Woody, 156-57, 179

Allport, Gordon, 91

Alvarez, Luis, 176

Asch, Solomon, 117

Auerbach, Red, 17

Bacon, Francis, 9, 12, 62, 75, 125, 178

Barnum effect, 60-61

Bartlett, F. C., 91

Baserate information, 106-109

Beloff, John, 158, 169

Bern, Daryl, 101

Birthday paradox, 175-77

Black uniforms and aggression, 52-53

Blaming the victim, 143-45

Broca, Paul, 56

Brokaw, Tom, 99

Cabbage, price regulation, 104-105 Causal explanation, facility with, 21-23

Child, Irving, 169

Cholesterol, 82, 97, 133

Clustering illusion, 16, 19

Coincidence, 175-77

Confirmation bias, 30-37

Covariation detection, 30-48, 151-54

Darwin, Charles, 10, 62

Dawes, Robyn, 45, 153

Divorce rate, U.S., 106-107

Endowment effect, 76

ESP, belief in, 2, 170

among academics, 193

role of personal experience, 174

False consensus effect, 113-17

Flattery, 150

Frank, Mark, 52

Free, World B., 11

Freud, Sigmund, 62, 113

Fried, Lee, 171

Full moon, 1, 69

Geller, Uri, 158, 172

Gladstone, William, 125

Goffman, Erving, 71, 119

Goldney, K. M.
See
Soal, G. S.

Goleman, Daniel, 64

Gossip, 121

Gould, Stephen Jay, 6, 176

Groupthink, 122

Hahneman, Samuel, 134

Heine, Heinrich, 119

Holt, John, 29, 34

Homeopathic medicine, 134

Honorton, Charles, 168, 169n.

Hot hand, 11-17, 30, 69

Hyde, Henry, 99

Hyman, Ray, 160, 169n.

Hypothesis testing, 33-37

Illusion of validity, 30

Jahn, Robert, 168

Janis, Irving, 122

Jennings, Dennis and Susan, 116

Kahneman, Daniel, 18

Kammann, Richard, 167

Knight, Bobby, 17

Krippner, Stanley, 160

Kuhlman, Kathryn, 130-32

Kunda, Ziva, 80-81

Kundera, Milan, 150

Lake Wobegon effect, 77-78, 80, 84

Lane, Arbuthnot, 136

Little Albert, 88-92, 94-95, 103-104, 107-11

Lombroso, Cesare, 56

Marks, David, 167

McEnroe, John, 148

McFerrin, Bobby, 104

Medawar, Peter, 58, 128

Memory for expected and unexpected information, 61-72

among gamblers, 54-55

Mencken, H. L., 88

Merton, Robert, 3, 44

Missing children campaign, 97

Multiple endpoints,

58-61 variable windows, 59-60

Nostradamus, 179

Novalis, 112

Parker, Adrian, 169

Pauling, Linus, 58, 132

Pennsylvania Dutch, 94

Pirsig, R., 185

Pittman, Thane, 49

Poaching, 5

Portacaval shunt, 156-57

Postman, Leo, 91

Premonitions, 177-80

Prisoner’s dilemma game, 45-46

Project UFO, 100-101

Psychoimmunology, 139-43

Puthoff, Harold, 166-67, 173

Randi, James, 158n., 171

Regression, statistical, 23-28, 129

regression fallacy, 26-28

Remote viewing, 166-67, 173

Representativeness, 17-18, 25-26, 49-50, 133-36

Rhine, J. B., 161-63

Rozin, Paul, 135

Rush, Benjamin, 125

Samuelson, Paul, 178

SAT exam, effectiveness of, 43-44

Schelling, Thomas, 84

Schlesinger, Arthur, 122

Schmidt, Helmut, 168, 169n.

Science, probabilistic versus deterministic, 190-92

Self-enhancement, 77-79

Self-fulfilling prophecies, 44-48

seemingly-fulfilled prophecies, 46-48

Self-handicapping, 147-49

Self-serving attribution biases, 78-79

Shakespeare, William, 146

Sharpening and leveling, 91-94

Simonton, Carl and Stephanie, 131

Sneaky bookers, 147-48

Soal, G. S., 163-66

Sontag, Susan, 145

Spinoza, Baruch, 9-10

Split-brain patients, 22-23

Sports Illustrated
jinx, 26-27

Styron, William, 144-45

Targ, Russell, 166-67, 173

Tart, Charles, 173

Tiller, William, 158

Tversky, Amos, 18

Updike, John, 125

Variable windows, 59-60

V-1 and V-2 weapons, 19-21

Vietnam, 42-43

Ward, Artemus, 1 Washington, George, 125

West, D. J., 169

Zeigarnik effect, 63