How We Know What Isn't So (32 page)

Some of what I have said about social science applies equally well to this book. Much that we currently know about what is or isn’t so will surely change in subsequent years. What is most important, then, is not dispelling particular erroneous beliefs (although there is surely some merit in that), but creating an understanding of how we form erroneous beliefs. To truly appreciate the complexities of the world and the intricacies of human experience, it is essential to understand how we can be misled by the apparent evidence of everyday experience. This, in turn, requires that we think clearly about our experience, question our assumptions, and challenge what we think we know.

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Another reason for brevity here is to avoid redundancy with several other recent books that, although not concerned with erroneous beliefs per se, nevertheless deal with the shortcomings of everyday reasoning that contribute so much to the formation of dubious beliefs. For the interested reader, some of the best to consider are R. Nisbett & L. Ross (1980)
Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment
. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall; R. M. Dawes (1988)
Rational choice in an uncertain world
. San Diego, CA: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich; D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (1982)
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; and J. Baron (1988)
Thinking and deciding
. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Chapter 1.
Introduction

1
E. J. Lamb (1979) Does adoption affect subsequent fertility?
American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 134,
138-
44
.

2
R. M. Dawes (1979) The robust beauty of improper linear models.
American Psychologist, 34,
571-82.

3
G. O. Abell & B. Greenspan (1979) Human births and the phase of the moon.
New England Journal of Medicine, 300,
96.

4
Gallup Opinion Index (1978) Political, social, and economic trends. June, pp. 1-5; A. Greeley (1987) From here to the hereafter.
San Jose Mercury News
, January 17, p. C1; “Gallup Poll of Beliefs” (1989)
Skeptical Inquirer, 13,
244-45; “Scientific Literacy” (1989)
Skeptical Inquirer, 13
, 343-45.

5
J. A. Wheeler (1979) Paper presented to the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Houston, TX.

6
R. Nisbett & L. Ross (1980)
Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment
. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, p. 14.

7
R. K. Merton (1948) The self-fulfilling prophecy.
Antioch Review, 8,
193-210.

8
E. B. Martin (1981) The conspicuous consumption of rhinos.
Animal Kingdom, 84,
20-29.

9
M. Elkins (1989) Division of Law Enforcement, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Personal communication.

10
R. M. Deutsch (1977)
The new nuts among the berries: How nutrition nonsense captured America
. Palo Alto, CA: Bull.

11
S. J. Gould (1987)
An urchin in the storm: Essays about books and ideas
. New York: W.W. Norton, p. 245.

Chapter 2.
Something Out of Nothing

1
J. R. Vokey & J. D. Read (1985) Subliminal messages: Between the devil and the media.
American Psychologist, 40,
1231-39.

2
J. W. Connor (1984) Misperception, folk belief, and the occult: A cognitive guide to understanding.
Skeptical Inquirer, 8,
344-54.

3
T. Gilovich, R. Vallone, & A. Tversky (1985) The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences.
Cognitive Psychology, 17,
295-314.

4
T. Gilovich (1983) Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44,
1110-26.

5
R. Falk (1981) The perception of randomness. In
Proceedings, Fifth International Conference for the Psychology of Mathematics Education
Grenoble, France; Wagenaar, W. A. (1972) Generation of random sequences by human subjects: A critical survey of literature.
Psychological Bulletin, 77,
65-72.

6
A. Tversky & D. Kahneman (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.
Science, 185,
1124-31.

7
Taken from R. Thaler (1983) Illusions and mirages in public policy.
The Public Interest, 73,
60-74.

8
D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (1971) Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness.
Cognitive psychology, 3,
430-54; D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (1973) On the psychology of prediction.
Psychological Review, 80,
237-51; A. Tversky & D. Kahneman (1971) Belief in the law of small numbers.
Psychological Bulletin,
76, 105-110; A. Tversky & D. Kahneman (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.
Science, 185,
1124-31.

9
R. D. Clarke (1946) An application of the poisson distribution.
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (London), 72,
p. 72; D. Johnson (1981)
V-1, V-2: Hitler’s vengeance on London
. New York: Stein & Day.

10
R. D. Clarke (1946) An application of the poisson distribution.
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (London), 72,
p. 72; W. Feller (1968)
An introduction to probability theory and its applications
. New York: Wiley.

11
D. Johnson (1981)
V-1, V-2: Hitler’s vengeance on London
. New York: Stein & Day, p. 144-45.

12
L. Ross, M. R. Lepper, & M. Hubbard (1975) Perseverance in self-perception and social perception: Biased attributional processes in the debriefing paradigm.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32,
880-92.

13
L. Ross, M. R. Lepper, F. Strack, & J. L. Steinmetz (1977) Social explanation and social expectation: The effects of real and hypothetical explanations upon subjective likelihood.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35,
817-29.

14
M. Gazzaniga (1985)
The social brain: Discovering the networks of the mind
. New York: Basic Books.

15
See also R. E. Nisbett & T. D. Wilson (1977). Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes.
Psychological Review, 84,
231-59.

16
D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (1973). On the psychology of prediction.
Psychological Review, 80,
237-51.

17
“Letter from the publisher.” (1979)
Sports Illustrated
, August 13, pp. 6-7.

18 O. H. Mowrer (1968) The law of effect, conditioning, and the problem of punishment. In E. E. Boe & R. M. Church (Eds.)
Punishment: Issues and experiments
. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.

19
B. F. Skinner (1953)
Science and human behavior
. New York: Free Press.

20
P. Aries (1962)
Centuries of childhood: A social history of family life
. New York: Vintage Books.

21
D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (1973) On the psychology of prediction.
Psychological Review, 80,
237-51; A. Tversky & D. Kahneman (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.
Science, 185,
1124-31.

22
P. E. Schaffner (1985) Specious learning about reward and punishment.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 48,
1377-86.

23
“Women barred from funerals.”
Jerusalem Post
, February 3, 1987; “No halachic basis for ban on women attending funerals.”
Jerusalem Post
, February 4, 1987.

Chapter 3.
Too Much from Too Little

1
H. J. Einhorn & R. M. Hogarth (1977) Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity.
Psychological Review, 85,
395416.

2
L. Alien & H. Jenkins (1980) The judgment of contingency and the nature of response alternatives.
Canadian Journal of Psychology, 34,
1-11; R. Beyth-Marom (1982) Perception of correlation reexamined.
Memory & Cognition, 10,
511-19; J. Crocker (1981) Judgment of covariation by social perceivers.
Psychological Bulletin, 90,
272-92; J. Crocker (1982) Biasedstions in judgment of covariation studies.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8,
21420; H. M. Jenkins & W. C. Ward (1965) Judgments of contingency between responses and outcomes.
Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 79,
(1, Whole No 594); J. Smedslund (1963) The concept of correlation in adults.
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 4,
165-73; W. D. Ward & H. M. Jenkins (1965) The display of information and the judgment of contingency.
Canadian Journal of Psychology, 19,
231-41.

3
J. Crocker (1982) Biased questions in judgment of covariation studies.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8,
214-20.

4
R. H. Fazio, S. J. Sherman, & P. M. Herr (1982) The feature-positive effect in the self-perception process; Does not doing matter as much as doing?
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 42,
404-11; H. M. Jenkins & R. S. Sainsbury (1970) Discrimination learning with the distinctive feature on positive or negative trials. In D. Mostofsky (Ed.),
Attention: Contemporary theory and analysis.
New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts; J. Newman, W. T. Wolff, & E. Hearst (1980) The feature-positive effect in adult human subjects.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning; and Memory, 6,
630-50; R. Nisbett & L. Ross (1980)
Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment
. New Jersey; Prentice Hall; P. C. Wason & P. N. Johnson-Laird (1965)
Psychology of reasoning: Structure and content
. London: Batsford.

5
F. Bacon (1960/1620)
The new organon and related writings
. New York: Liberal Arts Press.

6
P. C. Wason (1966) Reasoning. In B. M. Foss (Ed.),
New horizons in psychology
. Harmondsworth: Penguin.

7
M. Bassok&Y. Trope(1984)People’s strategies for testing hypotheses about another’s personality: Confirmatory or diagnostic?
Social Cognition, 2,
199-216;R. B. Skov&S. J. Sherman(1986) Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies,and perceived hypothesis confirmation.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22,
93-121; M. Snyder (1981) Seek, and ye shall find: Testing hypotheses about other people.In E. T. Higgins, D. C. Herman, & M. P. Zanna (Eds.),
Social cognition: The Ontario symposium on personality and social psychology
. Hilsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum; M. Snyder & W. B. Swann (1978) Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36,
1202-1212; Y. Trope & M. Bassok(1982) Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43,
22-34; Y. Trope & M. Bassok (1983) Information gathering strategies in hypothesis testing.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19,
560-76.

8
M. Bassok & Y. Trope (1984) People’s strategies for testing hypotheses about another’s personality: Confirmatory or diagnostic?
Social Cognition, 2,
199-216; Y. Trope & M. Bassok (1982) Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43,
22-34; Y. Trope & M. Bassok (1983) Information gathering strategies in hypothesis testing.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19,
560-76.

9
M. Bassok&Y. Trope(1984)People’s strategies for testing hypotheses about another’s personality:Confirmatory or diagnostic?
Social Cognition, 2,
199-216; R. B. Skov & S. J. Sherman (1986) Information-gathering processes:Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation.
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22,
93-121; M. Snyder (1981) Seek,and ye shall find: Testing hypotheses about other people.In E. T. Higgins, D. C. Herman,& M. P. Zanna (Eds.),
Social cognition: The Ontario symposium on personality and social psychology
. Hilsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum;M. Snyder&W. B. Swann(1978) Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36
, 1202-1212.