The Sleepwalkers (110 page)

95
. Ibid., p. 36; cf. Fischer,
War of Illusions
, p. 418.

96
. Tisza, memorandum to Emperor Franz Joseph, Budapest, 1 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 9978, pp. 248–9.

97
. Ibid., appendix to doc. 9984, pp. 253–61.

98
. Franz Joseph to Kaiser Wilhelm II, 2 July 1914, ibid., doc. 9984, pp. 250–52.

99
. Report by Szögyényi on Hoyos (1908) cited in Verena Moritz, ‘“Wir sind also fähig, zu wollen!” Alexander Hoyos und die Entfesselung des Ersten Weltkrieges', in Verena Moritz and Hannes Leidinger (eds.),
Die Nacht des Kirpitschnikow. Eine andere Geschichte des Ersten Weltkrieges
(Vienna, 2006), pp. 66–96, here pp. 82–3.

100
. Fellner, ‘Die Mission “Hoyos”', pp. 119, 125, 115–16.

101
. For an astute discussion of Berchtold's intentions, to which the preceding is indebted, see Williamson,
Austria-Hungary
, pp. 195–6; on the Hoyos mission, see also Manfred Rauchensteiner,
Der Tod des Doppeladlers
.
Österreich-Ungarn und der Erste Weltkrieg
(Graz, 1994), pp. 70–73; Hantsch,
Berchtold
, vol. 2, pp. 567–73.

102
. Berchtold, report on a conversation with the German ambassador, Vienna, 3 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 1006, pp. 277–8.

103
. Conversation with Bratianu reported in Czernin to MFA Vienna, Sinaia, 24 July 1914, HHStA, PA I, Liasse Krieg 812, fos. 699–708.

1
. Cited in David Fromkin,
Europe's Last Summer
.
Who Started the Great War in 1914?
(New York, 2004), p. 138.

2
. Rumbold to Grey, Berlin, 3 July 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 26, p. 18.

3
. Friedrich Meinecke,
Erlebtes, 1862–1919
(Stuttgart, 1964), p. 245.

4
. Akers-Douglas to Grey, Bucharest, 30 June 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 30, p. 23.

5
. Poklewski-Koziell to Sazonov, 4 July 1914,
IBZI
, vol. 4, doc. 81, p. 87; Hristić to Pašić, Bucharest, 30 June 1914, AS, MID – PO, 411, fo. 689.

6
. Crackanthorpe to Grey, Belgrade, 2 July, 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 27, pp. 19–20.

7
. Möllwald to MFA Vienna, Cetinje, 29 June 1914, HHStA, PA I, Liasse Krieg, 810, fo. 22.

8
. Note from the Ministry of War (sig. Krobatin), Vienna, 2 July 1914; Berchtold to Möllwald,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, docs. 9996, 10040, pp. 270–71, 295–6.

9
. Spalajković to Pašić, St Petersburg, 9 July 1914, AS, MID – PO, 412, fo. 28.

10
. Rodd to Grey, Rome, 7 July 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 36, p. 28; Mérey to Berchtold, Rome, 2 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 9988, p. 263; Mikhailović to Pašić, Rome, 1 July 1914, AS, MID – PO, 411, fos. 762–5.

11
. Sverbeyev to Sazonov, private letter, Rome, 30 June 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 4, doc. 29, p. 37; Mikhailović to Pašić, Rome, 1 July 1914, AS, MID – PO, 411, fols. 762–5.

12
. John Keiger,
France and the Origins of the First World War
(London, 1983), pp. 139, 145.

13
. Szécsen to Berchtold, Paris, 1 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 9970, p. 237.

14
. Bosković to Pašić, London, 18 July 1914, AS, MID – PO, 411, fo. 684.

15
. Mensdorff to MFA Vienna, London, 16 July 1914, HHStA, PA I, Liasse Krieg, 812, fo. 478.

16
. Czernin to MFA Vienna, Bucharest, 10 July 1914, ibid., 810, fo. 369.

17
. Jovanović to Pašić, Berlin, 13 July 1914, AS, MID – PO, 412, fos. 63–4; Spalajković to Pašić, St Petersburg, 12 July 1914, ibid., fos. 105–6.

18
. Shebeko to Sazonov, Vienna, 30 June 1914; Vienna, 1 July 1914, Vienna, 1 July 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 8, docs. 32, 46, 47, pp. 39, 53, 54.

19
. Hartwig to Sazonov, Belgrade, 30 June 1914, ibid., vol. 4, doc. 35, p. 43; on the importance of Friedjung as a pretext for rejecting out of hand the Austrian case against Serbia, see also Manfred Rauchensteiner,
Der Tod des Doppeladlers. Österreich-Ungarn und der Erste Weltkrieg
(Graz, 1994), p. 77.

20
. Bronewsky to Sazonov, Sofia, 8 July 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 4, doc. 136, p. 143.

21
. Sverbeyev (ambassador to Berlin) to Sazonov, 2 July 1914, ibid., doc. 62, p. 68.

22
. Benckendorff to Sazonov, London, 30 June 1914, ibid., doc. 26, p. 32.

23
. Bunsen (British envoy in Vienna) to Grey, 5 July 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 40, pp. 31–2.

24
. Carlotti to San Giuliano, St Petersburg, 8 July 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 4, doc. 128, p. 128; the Russian publication of this communication notes that there are no documents relating to this conversation in the Russian foreign ministry records, and the account of the same meeting by Czernin describes the conversation but does not mention this point. The reason may be that Czernin had acquired privileged information from a contact in Vienna, but wished to conceal the fact that he had divulged Austrian intentions to Sazonov. The close agreement between Czernin's disclosure and official thinking in Vienna at the time suggests, however, that the comment was indeed made and that the exchange was authentic.

25
. Szapáry to Berchtold, 18 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10365, p. 495.

26
. Thus Shebeko verbally to Berchtold on 30 July in Vienna, see N. Shebeko,
Souvenirs. Essai historique sur les origines de la guerre de 1914
(Paris, 1936), p. 258.

27
. Szécsen to Berchtold, 4 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10047, p. 299.

28
. Grey to Buchanan, London, 8 July 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 39, p. 31.

29
. Bunsen to Grey, 5 July 1914, ibid., doc. 41, pp. 31–2.

30
. Bernadotte Everly Schmitt,
Interviewing the Authors of the War
(Chicago, 1930), p. 10. Whereas Schmitt accepted Artamonov's disclaimer, Albertini was more sceptical, see Luigi Albertini,
The Origins of the War of 1914
, trans. Isabella M. Massey (3 vols., Oxford, 1953), vol. 2, pp. 81–6.

31
. Wilhelm II, marginal comments on Tschirschky to Bethmann Hollweg, Vienna, 30 July 1914, in Imanuel Geiss (ed.),
Julikrise und Kriegsausbruch 1914
.
Eine Dokumentensammlung
(2 vols., Hanover, 1963/4), here vol. 1, doc. 2, p. 59.

32
. Berchtold report of a conversation with Tschirschky, 3 July 1913,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10006, p. 277; Hugo Hantsch,
Leopold Graf Berchtold
.
Grandseigneur und Staatsmann
(2 vols., Graz, 1963), vol. 2, pp. 566–8.

33
. Szögyényi to Berchtold, Berlin, 5 July 1914, in
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10058, pp. 306–7.

34
. Hoyos memoir in Fritz Fellner, ‘Die Mission “Hoyos”', in id.,
Vom Dreibund zum Völkerbund. Studien zur Geschichte der Internationalen Beziehungen 1882–1919,
ed. H. Mashl and B. Mazohl-Wallnig (Vienna, 1994), p. 137.

35
. Holger Afflerbach,
Falkenhayn: Politisches Denken und Handeln im Kaiserreich
(Munich, 1994), p. 151; Albertini,
Origins
, vol. 2, p. 142; Annika Mombauer,
Helmut von Moltke and the Origins of the First World War
(Cambridge, 2001), p. 190; Geiss (ed.),
Julikrise
, vol. 1, p. 79.

36
. Szögyényi to Berchtold, Berlin, 6 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10076, p. 320.

37
. Imanuel Geiss,
July 1914. The Outbreak of the First World War. Selected Documents
(New York, 1974), p. 72; Albertini,
Origins
, vol. 2, pp. 137–40.

38
. Albertini,
Origins
, vol. 2, p. 147; Hantsch,
Berchtold
, vol. 2, pp. 571–2.

39
. Albertini,
Origins
, vol. 2, pp. 159, 137–8; Afflerbach,
Falkenhayn
, p. 151; Stevenson,
Armaments
, pp. 372, 375.

40
. Geiss,
July 1914
, p. 72; David Stevenson,
Armaments and the Coming of War. Europe 1904–1915
(Oxford, 1996), p. 372; Szögyényi to Berchtold, Berlin, 28 October 1913,
ÖUAP
, vol. 7, doc. 8934, pp. 513–15.

41
. On British concerns in the spring and summer of 1914 about the reliability of the Russians, see Thomas Otte,
The Foreign Office Mind. The Making of British Foreign Policy, 1865–1914
(Cambridge, 2001) pp. 376–8; on French concern about Sergei Witte: Stefan Schmidt,
Frankreichs Aussenpolitik in der Julikrise 1914. Ein Beitrag zur Geschichte des Ausbruchs des Ersten Weltkrieges
(Munich, 2009), pp. 266–8.

42
. Konrad H. Jarausch, ‘The Illusion of Limited War: Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg's Calculated Risk, July 1914',
Central European History
, 2/1 (1969), pp. 48–76;
Gian Enrico Rusconi, Rischio 1914. Come si decide una guerra
(Bologna, 1987), pp. 95–115.

43
. Jarausch, ‘Bethmann Hollweg's Calculated Risk', p. 48.

44
. Dieter Hoffmann,
Der Sprung ins Dunkle: Oder wie der 1.Weltkrieg entfesselt wurde
(Leipzig, 2010), pp. 159–62;
Le Matin
, 4 January 1914; see also Ignatiev to Danilov (Russian Quartermaster-General), Paris, 22 January 1914,
IBZI
, series 3, vol. 1, 77, pp. 65–8, here p. 66. Izvolsky suspected that the article was inspired by a middle-ranking functionary of the Quai d'Orsay, see ibid., p. 66, n. 1.

45
. Cited in Hermann von Kuhl,
Der deutsche Generalstab in Vorbereitung und Durchführung des Weltkrieges
(Berlin, 1920), p. 72.

46
. Pourtalès to Bethmann, 13 June 1914,
DD
, vol.1, doc. 1, p. 1.

47
. Wilhelm II, marginal notes to the translation of the same article, ibid., doc. 2, p. 3.

48
. Bethmann to Lichnowsky, Berlin, 16 June 1914,
GP
, vol. 39, doc. 15883, pp. 628–30, esp. p. 628.

49
. I. V. Bestuzhev, ‘Russian Foreign Policy, February–June 1914',
Journal of Contemporary History
, 1/3 (1966), p. 96.

50
. General Staff memorandum, Berlin, 27 November 1913 and 7 July 1914, PA-AA, R 11011.

51
. Zara S. Steiner,
Britain and the Origins of the First World War
(London, 1977), pp. 120–24; Wolfgang J. Mommsen, ‘Domestic Factors in German Foreign Policy before 1914',
Central European History
,
6
(1973), pp. 3–43, here pp. 36–9.

52
. Karl Dietrich Erdmann (ed.),
Kurt Riezler. Tagebücher, Aufsätze, Dokumente
(Göttingen, 1972), diary entry 7 July 1914, pp. 182–3. The publication of the diaries triggered a long and often acrimonious debate, both over the extent of German responsibility for the outbreak of war (the ‘Fischer Controversy' was still smouldering) and over the authenticity of the diaries (especially the pre-war sections). Bernd Sösemann in particular accused Erdmann of misdescribing the manuscript, which consisted of heavily edited, partly truncated loose leaves with a combination of what appear to be original diary entries and later interpolations, as a ‘diary' granting the reader a contemporary window on events. See Bernd Sösemann, ‘Die Erforderlichkeit des Unmöglichen. Kritische Bemerkungen zu der Edition: Kurt Riezler, Tagebücher, Aufsätze, Dokumente',
Blätter für deutsche Landesgeschichte
, 110 (1974); id., ‘Die Tagebücher Kurt Riezlers. Untersuchungen zu ihrer Echtheit und Edition',
Historische Zeitschrift
, 236 (1983), pp. 327–69, and Erdmann's detailed reply: Karl Dietrich Erdmann, ‘Zur Echtheit der Tagebücher Kurt Riezlers. Eine Antikritik',
Historische Zeitschrift
, 236 (1983), pp. 371–402. On the abiding value of the edition and of Riezler's notes despite the complex character of the source, see Holger Afflerbach's introduction to the reprint edition of Erdmann's edition (Göttingen, 2008).

53
. Erdmann,
Riezler
, diary entry 7 July 1914, p. 182.

54
. Ibid., diary entry 8 July 1914, p. 184; on the importance of this argument to German policy, see also Jürgen Angelow,
Der Weg in die Urkatastrophe. Der Zerfall des alten Europa 1900–1914
(Berlin, 2010), pp. 25–6.

55
. A. Hoyos, ‘Meine Mission nach Berlin', in Fellner, ‘Die Mission “Hoyos”', p. 137.

56
. ‘Protocol of the Ministerial Council for Joint Affairs convened on 7 July 1914',
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10118, pp. 343–51, here pp. 343–5.

57
. Ibid., p. 349.

58
. Gunther E. Rothenberg,
The Army of Francis Joseph
(Lafayette, 1976), pp. 177–9; Rauchensteiner,
Tod des Doppeladlers
, pp. 74–5; Roberto Segre,
Vienna e Belgrado 1876–1914
(Milan, [1935]), p. 61.

59
. Samuel R.Williamson,
Austria-Hungary and the Origins of the First World War
(Houndmills, 1991), p. 199.

60
. Conrad von Hötzendorf,
Aus meiner Dienstzeit, 1906–1918
(5 vols., Vienna, 1921–5), vol. 4, p. 33.

61
. Berchtold, Report to the Emperor, 14 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, doc. 10272, pp. 447–8.

62
. Conrad to Berchtold, Vienna, 10 July 1914, ibid., doc. 10226, pp. 414–15.

63
. Shebeko,
Souvenirs
, p. 214; Sidney Bradshaw Fay,
The Origins of the First World War
(2 vols., New York), vol. 2, pp. 243–8.

64
. The Austrian ambassador Count Mérey informed Vienna of German indiscretions in an exasperated telegram of 18 July; in his reply, Berchtold indicated that he had learned through ‘secret secure sources' – a coded reference to information from intercepts – of Rome's instructions to the envoys in Bucharest and St Petersburg, see Mérey to Berchtold, Rome, 18 July 1914 and Berchtold to Mérey, Vienna, 20 July 1914,
ÖUAP
, vol. 8, docs. 10364, 10418, pp. 494, 538. On the implications of the breach of secrecy, see Williamson,
Austria-Hungary and the Origins
, p. 201; id., ‘Confrontation with Serbia: The Consequences of Vienna's Failure to Achieve Surprise in July 1914',
Mitteilungen des Österreichischen Staatsarchivs
, 43 (1993), pp. 168– 77; id., ‘The Origins of the First World War',
Journal of Interdisciplinary History
, 18 (1988), pp. 795–818, here pp. 811–12. On all this see also: San Giuliano to Berlin, St Petersburg, Vienna and Belgrade, 16 July 1914, in Italian Foreign Ministry (ed.),
I Documenti Diplomatici Italiani
, 4th series, 1908–1914 (12 vols., Rome, 1964), vol. 12 doc. 272; R. J. B. Bosworth,
Italy, the Least of the Great Powers: Italian Foreign Policy before the First World War
(Cambridge, 1979), pp. 380–86.

65
. See Shebeko,
Souvenirs
, p. 213.

66
. Crackanthorpe to Grey, Belgrade, 17 July 1914,
BD
, vol. 11, doc. 53, p. 41.

67
. Pašić to Serbian legations, Belgrade, 19 July, AS, MID – PO 412, fo. 138.

68
. Albertini,
Origins
, vol. 2, pp. 254–7, with further details.

69
. Robin Okey,
The Habsburg Monarch, c. 1765–1918
.
From Enlightenment to Eclipse
(London, 2001), p. 377.

70
. William Jannen, ‘The Austro-Hungarian Decision for War in July 1914', in Samuel R. Williamson and Peter Pastor (eds.),
Essays on World War I: Origins and Prisoners of War
(New York, 1983), esp. pp. 58–60.

71
. On Vienna's confidence in deterrence, see Segre,
Vienna e Belgrado
, p. 69.

72
. Memorandum composed between 28 June and 7 July 1914 by Berthold Molden, journalist and freelancer for the press department of the Foreign Ministry in Vienna, cited in Solomon Wank, ‘Desperate Counsel in Vienna in July 1914: Berthold Molden's Unpublished Memorandum',
Central European History
, 26/3 (1993), pp. 281–310, here p. 292.

73
. Molden memorandum, cited in ibid., p. 293.

74
. Edna Ullmann-Margalit, ‘Big Decisions: Opting, Converting, Drifting', Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Centre for the Study of Rationality, Discussion Paper # 409, accessed online at
http://www.ratio.huji.ac.il/
. See also: Edna Ullmann-Margalit and Sidney Morgenbesser, ‘Picking and Choosing',
Social Research
, 44/4 (1977), pp. 758–85. I am grateful to Ira Katznelson for drawing my attention to these articles.