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Authors: Robert D. Kaplan

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Chapter II: The Revenge of Geography

  1.
Robert D. Kaplan, “Munich Versus Vietnam,” The Atlantic Online, May 4, 2007.

  2.
Hans J. Morgenthau,
Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace
, revised by Kenneth W. Thompson and W. David Clinton (New York: McGraw Hill, 1948, 2006), pp. 3, 6, 7, 12; Thucydides,
The Peloponnesian War
, translated by Thomas Hobbes (1629) (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989); Anastasia Bakolas, “Human Nature in Thucydides,” Wellesley College, unpublished; Robert D. Kaplan,
Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos
(New York: Random House, 2001).

  3.
Morgenthau,
Politics Among Nations
, pp. xviii–xix, 37, 181, 218–20, 246, 248; William Cabell Bruce,
John Randolph of Roanoke
(New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 1922), vol. 2, p. 211; John J. Mearsheimer, “The False Promise of International Institutions,”
International Security
, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Winter 1994–1995.

  4.
Thomas Hobbes,
Leviathan
, 1651, Chapter 15.

  5.
Fareed Zakaria, “Is Realism Finished?,”
The National Interest
, Winter 1992–1993.

  6.
Raymond Aron,
Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations
(Garden City: Doubleday, 1966), p. 321; José Ortega y Gasset,
The Revolt of the Masses
(Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1985), p. 129.

  7.
Black,
Maps and History: Constructing Images of the Past
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997), pp. 58, 173, 216.

  8.
Halford J. Mackinder,
Democratic Ideas and Reality: A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction
(New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1919), pp. 15–16, 1996 National Defense University edition.

  9.
Morgenthau,
Politics Among Nations
, p. 165.

10.
Alfred Thayer Mahan,
The Problem of Asia and Its Effect Upon International Policies
(London: Sampson Low, Marston, 1900), p. 56, 2005 Elibron edition.

11.
W. H. Parker,
Mackinder: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft
(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988), pp. 93, 130–31.

12.
W. Gordon East,
The Geography Behind History
(New York: Norton, 1965, 1967), p. 120.

13.
Nicholas J. Spykman,
America’s Strategy in World Politics: The
United States and the Balance of Power
, with a new introduction by Francis P. Sempa (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1942), pp. xv, 41. 2007 Transaction edition.

14.
East,
The Geography Behind History
, p. 38.

15.
Federalist
No. 8.

16.
Williamson Murray, “Some Thoughts on War and Geography,”
Journal of Strategic Studies
, Routledge, London, 1999, pp. 212, 214; Colin S. Gray, “The Continued Primacy of Geography,”
Orbis
, Philadelphia, Spring 1996, p. 2.

17.
Mackubin Thomas Owens, “In Defense of Classical Geopolitics,”
Naval War College Review
, Newport, Rhode Island, Autumn 1999, p. 72.

18.
Spykman,
America’s Strategy in World Politics
, p. 92.

19.
James Fairgrieve,
Geography and World Power
(New York: E. P. Dutton, 1917), pp. 273–74.

20.
John Western, Department of Geography, Syracuse University.

21.
John Gallup and Jeffrey Sachs, “Location, Location: Geography and Economic Development,”
Harvard International Review
, Cambridge, Winter 1998–1999. In part, they are extrapolating from the work of Jared Diamond.

22.
M. C. Ricklefs, Bruce Lockhart, Albert Lau, Portia Reyes, and Maitrii Aung-Thwin,
A New History of Southeast Asia
(New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), p. 21.

23.
John Adams,
Works
(Boston: Little, Brown, 1850–1856), vol. 4, p. 401.

24.
Robert D. Kaplan,
Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos
(New York: Random House, 2001), pp. 101–2.

25.
Spykman,
America’s Strategy in World Politics
, p. 43.

26.
Murray, “Some Thoughts on War and Geography,” p. 213.

27.
Jakub J. Grygiel,
Great Powers and Geopolitical Change
(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), p. 15.

28.
Gray, “The Continued Primacy of Geography”; Murray, “Some Thoughts on War and Geography,” p. 216.

29.
Morgenthau,
Politics Among Nations
, p. 124.

30.
Isaiah Berlin,
Four Essays on Liberty
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1969).

31.
See Daniel J. Mahoney’s “Three Decent Frenchmen,” a review of Tony Judt’s
The Burden of Responsibility, The National Interest
,
Summer 1999; see, too,
History, Truth and Liberty: Selected Writings of Raymond Aron
, edited by Franciszek Draus (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985).

32.
Norman Davies,
God’s Playground: A History of Poland
, vol. 1,
The Origins to 1795
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2005 [1981]), p. viii.

Chapter III: Herodotus and His Successors

  1.
William H. McNeill,
The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), pp. 22, 27.

  2.
Freya Stark, “Iraq,” in
Islam To-day
, edited by A. J. Arberry and Rom Landau (London: Faber & Faber, 1943).

  3.
Ibn Khaldun,
The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History
(1377), translated by Franz Rosenthal, 1967 Princeton University Press edition, pp. 133, 136, 140, 252; Robert D. Kaplan,
Mediterranean Winter
(New York: Random House, 2004), p. 27.

  4.
Georges Roux,
Ancient Iraq
(London: Allen & Unwin, 1964), pp. 267, 284, 297, 299.

  5.
McNeill,
The Rise of the West
, pp. 32, 41–42, 46, 50, 64.

  6.
James Fairgrieve,
Geography and World Power
(New York: E. P. Dutton, 1917), pp. 26–27, 30, 32.

  7.
McNeill,
The Rise of the West
, pp. 69, 71; Roux,
Ancient Iraq
, pp. 24–25.

  8.
McNeill,
The Rise of the West
, pp. 167, 217, 243.

  9.
Ibid., pp. 250, 484, 618.

10.
Ibid., p. 535.

11.
Arthur Helps, preface to 1991 abridged English-language edition of Oswald Spengler,
The Decline of the West
(Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press).

12.
Ibid., p. 249.

13.
Oswald Spengler,
The Decline of the West
, translated by Charles Francis Atkinson (New York: Knopf, 1962 [1918, 1922]), pp. 324, 345, 352.

14.
Ibid., pp. 177–78, 193–94, 353–54; Arnold J. Toynbee,
A Study of History
, abridgement of vols. 7–10 by D. C. Somervell (New York: Oxford University Press, 1957), pp. 144–45.

15. Ibid., pp. 451, 539.

16.
W. Gordon East,
The Geography Behind History
(New York: Norton, 1967), p. 128.

17.
Arnold J. Toynbee,
A Study of History
, abridgement of vols. 1–6 by D. C. Somervell (New York: Oxford University Press, 1946), pp. 123, 237.

18.
Toynbee,
A Study of History
, vols. 1–6, pp. 146, 164–66; Jared Diamond,
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
(New York: Viking, 2005), pp. 79, 81, 106–7, 109, 119–20, 136–37, 157, 159, 172, 247, 276.

19.
By no means was Europe alone in this regard. For example, Toynbee notes how the inhabitants of the Andean plateau were challenged by a bleak climate and poor soil, even as the inhabitants of the Pacific coast of South America were challenged by heat and drought that necessitated irrigation works. The difference, though, between Europe and South America, which Toynbee does not indicate, is that Europe, with its natural deepwater ports, lay athwart many trade and migration routes. Toynbee,
A Study of History
, vol. 1, p. 75.

20.
McNeill,
The Rise of the West
, pp. 565, 724.

21.
Ibid., p. 253.

22.
Ibid., pp. 722, 724.

23.
Ibid., p. 728.

24.
Robert Gilpin,
War and Change in World Politics
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

25.
Morgenthau,
Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace
, revised by Kenneth W. Thompson and W. David Clinton (New York: McGraw Hill, 2006), pp. 354–57.

26.
Ibid., p. 357.

27.
McNeill,
The Rise of the West
, p. 807.

28.
Ibid, p. 352.

29.
Toynbee,
A Study of History
, vols. 1–6, p. 284.

30.
Toynbee,
A Study of History
, vols. 7–10, p. 121.

31.
For examples of Eurocentric mapping conventions, see Jeremy Black,
Maps and History
, pp. 60, 62.

32.
Marshall G. S. Hodgson,
The Venture of Islam: Conscience and History in a World Civilization
, vol. 1:
The Classical Age of Islam
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974), pp. 50, 56, 60–61, 109–11.

33.
Ibid., pp. 114, 120–24, 133; Marshall G. S. Hodgson,
The Venture
of Islam: Conscience and History in a World Civilization
, vol. 2:
The Expansion of Islam in the Middle Periods
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974), pp. 65, 71.

34.
Hodgson,
The Classical Age of Islam
, pp. 154, 156, 158.

35.
Ibid., pp. 151, 204–6, 229.

36.
Toynbee,
A Study of History
, vols. 1–6, p. 271.

37.
Ibid., p. 268. The Abyssinian highlands were more inaccessible still, and would remain under heavy Christian influence.

38.
Hodgson,
The Expansion of Islam in the Middle Periods
, pp. 54, 396, 400–401.

39.
Marshall G. S. Hodgson,
The Venture of Islam: Conscience and History in a World Civilization
, vol. 3:
The Gunpowder Empires and Modern Times
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974), pp. 114, 116.

40.
All direct quotes are from David Grene’s 1987 University of Chicago Press translation. I have also drawn on material from the introductions to other translations by A. R. Burn and Tom Griffith.

41.
Boris Pasternak,
Doctor Zhivago
, translated by Max Hayward and Manya Harari (New York: Pantheon, 1958), p. 43.

42.
Robert D. Kaplan, “A Historian for Our Time,”
The Atlantic
, January/Februrary 2007.

43.
Hodgson,
The Classical Age of Islam
, p. 25.

Chapter IV: The Eurasian Map

  1.
Jakub J. Grygiel,
Great Powers and Geopolitical Change
(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), pp. 2, 24; Mackubin Thomas Owens, “In Defense of Classical Geopolitics,”
Naval War College Review
, Newport, Rhode Island, Autumn 1999, pp. 60, 73; Saul B. Cohen,
Geography and Politics in a World Divided
(New York: Random House, 1963), p. 29.

  2.
Paul Kennedy, “The Pivot of History: The U.S. Needs to Blend Democratic Ideals with Geopolitical Wisdom,”
The Guardian
, June 19, 2004; Cohen,
Geography and Politics in a World Divided
, p. xiii.

  3.
Zbigniew Brzezinski,
The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives
(New York: Basic Books, 1997), p. 37.

  4.
Hans J. Morgenthau,
Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace
, revised by Kenneth W. Thompson and W. David Clinton (New York: McGraw Hill, 1948), pp. 170–71.

  5.
Halford J. Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in Politics of Reconstruction
(Washington, DC: National Defense University, 1919, 1942), p. 205; W. H. Parker,
Mackinder: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft
(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1982), pp. 211–12.

  6.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, p. 155.

  7.
H. J. Mackinder, “On the Necessity of Thorough Teaching in General Geography as a Preliminary to the Teaching of Commercial Geography,”
Journal of the Manchester Geographical Society
, 1890, vol. 6; Parker,
Mackinder
, pp. 95–96.

  8.
H. J. Mackinder, “The Geographical Pivot of History,”
The Geographical Journal
, London, April 1904, p. 422.

  9.
Ibid., p. 421.

10.
Ibid., p. 422.

11.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, p. 72; James Fairgrieve,
Geography and World Power
, p. 103.

12.
The United States would know a similar fate, as World War II left it virtually unscathed, even as the infrastructures of Europe, the Soviet Union, China, and Japan were laid waste, granting America decades of economic and political preeminence.

13.
Toynbee,
A Study of History
, abridgement of vols. 7–10 by D. C. Somervell (New York: Oxford University Press, 1946), pp. 151, 168.

14.
Geoffrey Sloan, “Sir Halford J. Mackinder: The Heartland Theory Then and Now,” in
Geopolitics, Geography and Strategy
, edited by Colin S. Gray and Geoffrey Sloan (London: Frank Cass, 1999), p. 19.

15.
Kennedy, “The Pivot of History: The U.S. Needs to Blend Democratic Ideals with Geopolitical Wisdom.”

16.
Parker,
Mackinder
, p. 154.

17.
Gerry Kearns,
Geopolitics and Empire: The Legacy of Halford Mackinder
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 38.

18.
Parker,
Mackinder
, p. 121.

19.
Daniel J. Mahoney, “Three Decent Frenchmen,”
The National Interest
, Washington, Summer 1999; Franciszek Draus,
History, Truth and Liberty: Selected Writings of Raymond Aron
(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985).

20.
Grygiel,
Great Powers and Geopolitical Change
, p. 181; Raymond Aron,
Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations
(Garden City: Doubleday, 1966), pp. 197–98.

21. Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, p. 2.

22.
Ibid., p. 1.

23.
Parker,
Mackinder
, p. 160.

24.
Ibid., p. 163.

25.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, pp. 24–25, 28, 32; Parker,
Mackinder
, 122–23; Fairgrieve,
Geography and World Power
, pp. 60–62.

26.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, pp. 22, 38, 41, 46.

27.
Ibid., pp. 46, 48.

28.
Brzezinski,
The Grand Chessboard
, p. 31.

29.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, pp. 41–42, 47.

30.
Ibid., p. xviii, from introduction by Stephen V. Mladineo.

31.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, pp. 95–99, 111–12, 115; Cohen,
Geography and Politics in a World Divided
, pp. 85–86; James Fairgrieve,
Geography and World Power
(London: University of London Press, 1915).

32.
Sloan, “Sir Halford J. Mackinder: The Heartland Theory Then and Now,” p. 31.

33.
Arthur Butler Dugan, “Mackinder and His Critics Reconsidered,”
The Journal of Politics
, May 1962.

34.
Brian W. Blouet,
Halford Mackinder: A Biography
(College Station: Texas A & M Press, 1987), pp. 150–51.

35.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, pp. 55, 78; Cohen,
Geography and Politics in a World Divided
, pp. 42–44.

36.
Mackinder,
Democratic Ideals and Reality
, pp. 64–65.

37.
Ibid., p. 116.

38.
Ibid., pp. 74, 205.

39.
Ibid., p. 201.

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