The Perfect Pathogen (11 page)

CHAPTER 18

Sarah, Ben and Katie entered
the conference room ready for the DVC with the Secretary of HHS, National
Security Advisor, the Director of the CDC, and a host of other supporting
characters. When they fired up the screen, they could see the members from the
other organizations around their respective tables. This should be an
interesting discussion, thought Katie.

At 10:00 a.m. sharp, the Secretary started the
discussion.

“Thank you for joining in on this DVC today. Allow
me to start with a brief overview. I have been in touch with the WHO and our
partners around the world. There are over 260 teams of scientists working on
this problem, but no one has come up with anything concrete yet. The death toll
worldwide is approaching five million deaths per day. In the U.S we are going to
breach the 150,000 deaths per day mark soon which will likely outstrip the
capability of our infrastructure. We have contacted each State Health
Department and recommended they establish mass grave sites in the vicinity of
all major metropolitan areas. Plans are in place to assist with handling the
dead, if need be. In some of the more populous states, the governors have
activated the National Guard to help with the problem. Only a few of the far
right and far left press organizations are sounding the panic alarm, even
though the term Epigeddon has taken hold and is now used daily in the
mainstream press. In other parts of the world there are varying responses. In
the more authoritarian countries, the people are starting to riot, believing
that the government is holding back bad news. In countries with more democratic
governments, the response is more like here. There is a wait and see attitude.
But we all know, the patience of the people only lasts for a short time and as
the number of deaths continue to mount, we will be approaching a tipping point.
So with that as an introduction, what do you have?”

The CDC Director in Atlanta, Bob Gleeson, answered
first. “We have six teams working across the country in conjunction with the
task force which has been formed out of Johns Hopkins University. We still have
not been able to determine the cause. The characteristics are common among all
of the victims. It is almost like a premature aging that is causing the deaths.
We have never seen anything like this in the past. The pathogen is neither a
virus nor a bacteria, so our normal protocols for detection and treatment are
not working. All cultures are negative. Biopsy results are inconsistent. We
have conducted antibody serology testing, PCR, culturing for every infectious
agent known to man, spectroscopy, Western blots, and prion testing. We are
branching out in creative ways at different sites, but to date there has been
no success. I know my colleagues in DC are working on a different angle, as was
discussed yesterday, and maybe with additional insight provided by their
research we will be able to move in the correct direction. In summary, the
prognosis so far is grave.”

“Thank you for your report, Bob,” said the
Secretary. “Allow me now to let Dr. Lin explain what her team has.”

“Madame Secretary,” Sarah started, “We have been
looking closely at trying to determine how to define the spread of the disease,
the potential gestation period of the pathogen, as well as to determine the
cause of death of the victims. I will let Dr. Shah and Dr. McMann explain their
theories regarding the disease. Ben.”

“Good morning ladies and gentlemen,” said Ben. “I
found it interesting to hear what the Director said regarding premature aging.
I haven’t actually used that term, but it does fit, based on what Dr. White and
the Johns Hopkins team and I have discussed. What we believe is happening is
that this pathogen, which we are now calling SDX or symptomatic disease
unknown, for lack of a better term, is causing the internal organs of its victims
to age at accelerated rates. We don’t know how fast the process is or when it
starts or if it follows the trajectory of a hyperbolic curve approaching
infinity, but what we do know is that when people show signs, as evidenced by a
stroke or heart attack, they don’t recover. All of the evidence we have seen
from autopsies over the last four days supports this assumption. The internal
organs of the victims appear much older than the victim themselves. As to the
question of when it starts,  I think this varies based on the health condition
of the individual and the normal life span of the person, based on their
environment and or lifestyle. For example, if someone was 40 years old with a
life expectancy of 80, and they were a carrier of SDX, then if the disease was
active in their system we could expect they would age at an accelerated rate.
Currently, we don’t know the gestation periods of SDX and we don’t know how
fast acceleration is. My colleague, Dr. McMann is working to try and determine
this and I will let her discuss what her hypotheses are.”

“Thank you, Ben,” said the Secretary. “Katie, I
want to thank you for the interesting work you have done so far. Please explain
your theory as to why you think your blood test analysis can predict the
presence of SDX and please elaborate more on Ben’s comments regarding gestation
period.”

“Certainly, Madam Secretary,” said Katie,
swallowing her fear. “As most of you know, I have been analyzing the blood
results from thousands of victims. We are measuring over one hundred and fifty
different blood levels, most of which are not measured in routine physicals.
What I have determined is that there are six key markers that I believe are
indicative of someone who is infected with SDX. They are listed in my report.
After running the samples through an algorithm I had previously developed to
predict longevity, I can now say with 99% certainty that all the victims of the
pandemic have had abnormal readings for these six unique blood tests. I
theorized that if the victims of SDX had the elevated levels, shouldn’t the
levels also be elevated in anyone who is a carrier of SDX?  So, I took the
liberty of having my blood tested, since I had worked closely with the Chief of
Statistics for Aging, Herb Burns, who died Monday of this disease. When I
received the results, I found that all six levels were high in my blood, and
that the levels fell in the middle of the range of what the victims have
exhibited. Based on this information, I recommended expanded live tests and I
expect to receive the first live test batch results today around noon. I will
be looking at this information to determine if the live test batch candidates
are positive for SDX. My theory is that they will all be positive and let me
explain why.”

Suddenly, there was a combination of gasps,
whispered discussions, and people shifting in their seats, in the other
conference rooms. There were looks of grave concern all around. Katie
definitely had their attention.

The National Security Advisor, Jim Redman,
interrupted, “That is a pretty bold statement, Dr. McMann. What you are saying
is that we are all going to die, it is just a matter of time.”

Katie glanced at Sarah and Sarah nodded. Katie
continued, “Mr. Redman that would be correct, assuming all are positive and
that we don’t find the cause and a remedy.”

“This is just a bunch of bullshit speculation. You
don’t have any hard data to back up your claim,” said Jim in a noticeably
louder voice now.

“Now let’s all just settle down a little bit,”
said the Secretary, firmly taking control. “I have asked for this briefing and
I want to hear what Katie has to say. She could be wrong, but if she isn’t, I
want it all on the table so we can start to consider contingencies. Katie,
please continue.”

“As I said, I will receive a total of thirty-seven
samples around noon today. I will analyze the data and provide the results to
Sarah as soon as possible. I expect this will take about two hours after
receiving the results. Let me explain my position as to why I think they will
all be positive.

“I have been analyzing blood data from
Centenarians for over seven years. I modified the algorithm I used for this
longevity project to analyze the SDX data. Four of the six blood tests I have
identified as markers for SDX were used in my longevity study. I have started a
cursory analysis of the four tests on my Centenarian population and what I
found set off alarm bells. Approximately five years ago, the levels of these
four blood tests started to increase in my test group. This was noted during the
longevity project, but little attention was paid to this because it was
hypothesized that these levels went up as a normal part of the aging process or
they were accepted “normal” like elevated HDL or chloride.”

Katie continued, “In retrospect, when you look
across the age range prior to five years ago, this is not true. What I do know
from a sampling from different areas around the world is that all of the
Centenarian population in my test data have elevated levels. What I expect to
find is that the levels increased in some areas of the world sooner than in
other areas. As of this morning, more than two thirds of the 3,300 people we
were tracking have succumbed to this illness and they all had elevated levels
before they died. Six or seven years ago, that was not the case,” she said.
“Those that died seven years ago had normal levels for all four tests.”

“That explains part of the puzzle, how about the
gestation period?” asked the Secretary.

Katie took a deep breath and said, “That is a
little harder to determine. Over the next day and a half, I plan on going
through the longevity data from the last seven years to see if I can determine
where the levels of the coinciding blood tests started to increase first. Then
I will follow the trail to see if we can determine where it spread and how
quickly. The third part of the analysis is to look at those who died and when
their levels started to increase to see if a conclusion regarding gestation
period can be drawn.”

“That sounds like a lot a work for one person. Is
someone assisting you?” said the Secretary.

“Yes, Dr. Shah and his team will be assisting me.”

“Yes, Madame Secretary,” said Ben joining in. “As
part of the data analysis, we will be trying to come up with a determination
regarding life expectancy for someone who is a carrier of SDX. I believe that
the data Katie has can provide a window into this problem. Again, the key is,
how fast is the premature aging process?  I did some back of the envelope
calculations and I expect it could be as much as one-hundred times the normal
aging process, which would mean that someone who is 40 with a life expectancy
of 80 would have about six months to live, or better stated, six months for us
to find a cure.”

“Well, I am looking forward to the results of your
analysis. I have another news conference today at four this afternoon. It
doesn’t look like I have any concrete progress to report. For those of you
involved in the strategy meeting, there will be another DVC at 1 p.m. Does
anybody have anything else?” said the Secretary.

“Yes,” said Jim. “I want to remind everyone that
what we have discussed here is classified and that it is not to be shared
outside this room. All press contacts will be made through the Secretary and
her office in consultation with the White House.”

Everyone nodded and the DVC ended.

“You handled that well Katie,” said Sarah. “I
don’t know what got into Jim.”

“I have a feeling he is one of 37 samples in the
live batch and he didn’t want to be confronted with his mortality,” said Katie.

“I hope that isn’t an indication of how people
will react when this finally gets out,” said Ben.

“If it gets out,” said Sarah.

“Ben, I need to talk to Sarah privately if you
don’t mind,” said Katie.

“No problem, I will just wait outside and then we
can meet to discuss how to coordinate the analysis of the longevity data.”

“What is it Katie?” ask Sarah with a look of
concern.

“I took the liberty of having my family tested for
SDX. I’m sorry, but I needed to know. I didn’t want to infect them if they
weren’t already infected,” said Katie.

Sarah’s look of concern turned to a look of
disappointment.

“Please don’t do any more unauthorized tests,
Katie. If you feel strongly that something needs to be done, come to me first
and we can discuss it. At any rate, now we will have more live tests results,
including you and your family. I sure do hope you are wrong about everyone
being positive for SDX.”

“Me too, but I don’t think I am,” said Katie
convincingly.

Sarah opened the door to the conference room and
said, “Ben you can come in now, we are finished.” Then she headed for her
office.

Ben said, “That seemed pretty intense. Anything to
do with the current situation?”

“Well, yes,” said Katie. “I had to tell Sarah that
I tested my family.”

“You did what?” he exclaimed.

“I had my family come up to the office to meet me
for dinner and while they were there I took them into the lab to have their
blood drawn. They think they are helping me with my research, and they are. If
they are positive, then that helps us with the next logical step in our
thinking.”

“You never cease to amaze me,” said Ben. “So how
do you want to work the coordination of the data analysis?”

“I thought I would analyze the data by region and
then send you the information. At that point you could see if you can determine
a pattern. So, what you will get is the level for each individual in the
particular region and whether they were dead or alive as of last Friday. If
they died prior to that time you will also get the date and, where possible,
the time of death. I will provide you the test data by region for all of the
subjects, highlighting when the four marker blood tests started to rise and
when the individual died, if they are not still alive. Hopefully, based on this
information, you can make a judgment as to whether the individual died of SDX
or something else,” said Katie.