The Norm Chronicles (45 page)

2
. Stone, P.
The Luck of the Draw:The Role of Lotteries in Decision Making
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011).

3
. Fienberg, S.E. Randomization and Social Affairs: The 1970 Draft Lottery.
Science
. 1971 Jan 22;171(3968):255–61.

4
. David, F.N.
Games, Gods, and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas
(New York: Dover Publications, 1998).

5
. New Living Translation. 2012. Available from:
http://www.newlivingtranslation.com/
.

6
. British History Online. Elizabeth – July 1588, 1–5. Calendar of State Papers Foreign, Elizabeth, Vol. 22. 2003. Available from:
http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=74849
.

7
. Hacking, I.
The Emergence of Probability
, 2nd edn (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).

8
. Cardano, G.
Liber de ludo aleae
(Rome: FrancoAngeli, 2006).

9
. See note 4 above.

10
. Reith, G.
The Age of Chance: Gambling in Western Culture
(London: Routledge, 2002).

11
. Atherton, M.
Gambling
(London:Hachette, 2007).

12
.
The Guardian
. Pakistan Embroiled in No-Ball Betting Scandal against England. 29 Aug 2010. Available from:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/aug/29/pakistan-cricket-betting-allegations
.

13
. Gamble Aware :: Gambling Facts and Figures. 2012. Available from:
http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/gambling-facts-and-figures
.

14
. Dubins, L.E., Savage, L.J.
How To Gamble If You Must: Inequalities for Stochastic Processes
(New York: McGraw-Hill, 1965).

15
. The WLA Security Control Standard (certification documents). 2012. Available from:
https://www.world-lotteries.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4374%3Athe-wla-security-control-standard-2012-wla-scs2012&catid=106%3Asecurity-control-standard-scs&Itemid=100177&lang=en
.

16
.
Daily Mirror
. Gambler Wins £585k for 86p Stake on 19-Match Accumulator. 2011. Available from:
http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/news/Gambler-wins-585k-for-86p-stake-on-19-match-accumulator-thanks-to-Glen-Johnson-87th-minute-Liverpool-winner-v-Chelsea-article833317.html
.

17
. DSM-IV Criteria: Pathological Gambling. 2000. Available from:
http://www.problemgambling.ca/EN/ResourcesForProfessionals/Pages/DSMIVCriteriaPathologicalGambling.aspx
.

18
. Central and North West London NHS Foundation Trust :: Gambling Treatment Centre London. 2012. Available from:
http://www.cnwl.nhs.uk/gambling.html
.

Chapter 13: Average Risks

1
. BBC. Figures show ‘Mr and Mrs Average’. 13 Oct 2010. Available from:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11534042
.

2
. Office for National Statistics. 2011 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (SOC 2000). 2011. Available from:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ashe/annual-survey-of-hours-and-earnings/ashe-results-2011/ashe-statistical-bulletin-2011.html
.

3
. Gould, S.J. Median Is Not the Message. Available from:
http://people.umass.edu/biep540w/pdf/Stephen%20Jay%20Gould.pdf
.

4
. Dilnot, A., Blastland, M.
The Tiger That Isn’t: Seeing Through a World of Numbers
(London:Profile Books, 2010).

5
. Savage, S.L..
The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
(Chichester: John Wiley, 2009).

Chapter 14: Chance

1
. Dostoyevsky, F.
Notes from the Underground and The Double
(Harmondsworth: Penguin Books, 1972).

2
. The Information Philosopher. Chrysippus. 2012. Available from:
http://www.informationphilosopher.com/solutions/philosophers/chrysippus/
.

3
. Oppenheimer, J.R.
Science and the Common Understanding
(New York: Simon and Schuster, 1954).

4
. Adams, D.
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
(New York: Random House, 1997).

5
. Rich, M.D.
A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates
(Santa Monica, Rand Corporation, 2001).

6
. See Extreme Fire Behavior,
Atlantic Magazine
(September 2012).

Chapter 15: Transport

1
.
The Guardian
. Life Sentence for Train Murder of Student. 10 Nov 2006. Available from:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/nov/10/ukcrime
.

2
. Currie, G., Delbosc, A., Mahmoud, S. Perceptions and Realities of Personal Safety on Public Transport for Young People in Melbourne. Conference paper delivered at the Australasian Transport Research Forum held in Canberra, Australia 2010.

3
. Rail Safety and Standards Board. Annual Safety Performance Report 2010/11. 2011. Available from:
http://www.rssb.co.uk/SPR/REPORTS/Documents/ASPR%202010-11%20Final.pdf
.

4
. Evans, A. Fatal Train Accidents on Britain’s Main Line Railways: End of 2010 Analysis. Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London. Available from:
http://www.cts.cv.ic.ac.uk/documents/publications/iccts01391.pdf
.

5
. BBC News. Guard Jailed over Rail Death Fall. 15 Nov 2012. Available from:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-20339630
.

6
. See note 3 above.

7
. Wolff, J. Risk, Fear, Blame, Shame and the Regulation of Public Safety.
Economics and Philosophy
. 2006;22(03):409–27.

8
. Gigerenzer, G. Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire: Behavioral Reactions to Terrorist Attacks.
Risk Analysis
. 2006 Apr 1;26(2):347–51.

9
. Hoorens, V. Self-Enhancement and Superiority Biases in Social Comparison.
European Review of Social Psychology
. 1993;4(1):113–39; McCormick, I.A., Walkey, F.H., Green, D.E. Comparative Perceptions of Driver Ability – A Confirmation and Expansion.
Accid Anal Prev.
1986 Jun;18(3):205–8.

10
. International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group. IRTAD Road Safety Annual Report. 2011. Available from:
http://internationaltransportforum.org/irtad/files/03/88/23/f038823/public/index.html
.

11
. World Health Organisation. Global Status Report on Road Safety. 2009. Available from:
http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2009/en/
.

12
. FIA Foundation. The Missing Link: Road Traffic Injuries and the Millennium Development Goals. 2010. Available from:
http://www.fiafoundation.org/publications/Pages/PublicationHome.aspx
.

13
. See note 11 above.

14
. Smeed, R.J. Some Statistical Aspects of Road Safety Research.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society
, Series A (General). 1949;112(1):1.

15
. Oakes, M., Bor, R. The Psychology of Fear of Flying (Part I): A Critical Evaluation of Current Perspectives on the Nature, Prevalence and Etiology of Fear of Flying.
Travel Med Infect Dis
. 2010 Nov;8(6):327–38.

16
. British Airways. Flying with Confidence – Fear of Flying Course from British Airways [Internet]. Available from:
http://flyingwithconfidence.com/
.

17
. Plane Crash Info. Available from:
http://planecrashinfo.com/index.html
.

18
. Ibid.

19
. Ibid.

20
. NTSB National Transportation Safety Board. NTSB – Aviation Statistical Reports. Available from:
http://www.ntsb.gov/data/aviation_stats.html
.

21
. Department for Transport. Aviation – Statistics. Available from:
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-transport/series/aviation-statistics
.

22
. NTSB National Transportation Safety Board. Preliminary Monthly Summary. 2012. Available from:
http://www.ntsb.gov/data/monthly/curr_mo.TXT
.

Chapter 16: Extreme Sports

1
. The Best Wing Suit /Skydive from YouTube, part 1. 2008. Available from:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5N9t5qOSzCU&feature=youtube_gdata_player
.

2
.
Daily Mail.
Last One on the Ground Is a Rotten Egg! Spectacular Photos of Daredevils Diving in Base-Jumping Race. Available from:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2164332/World-Base-Race-2012-Spectacular-photos-daredevils-diving-base-jumping-race.html
.

3
. Clark, R.W.
The Victorian Mountaineers
(London: Batsford, 1953).

4
. Windsor, J.S., Firth, P.G., Grocott, M.P., Rodway, G.W., Montgomery, H.E. Mountain Mortality: A Review of Deaths that Occur during Recreational Activities in the Mountains.
Postgraduate Medical Journal
. 2009 Jun 1;85(1004):316–21.

5
. Pollard, A., Clarke, C. Deaths during Mountaineering at Extreme Altitude.
The Lancet
. 1988 Jun;331(8597):1277.

6
. Wikipedia. Franz Reichelt. Available from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Reichelt
. The terrifying film of Reichelt’s jump is on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BepyTSzueno
.

7
. United States Parachute Association. Skydiving Safety. Available from:
http://www.uspa.org/AboutSkydiving/SkydivingSafety/tabid/526/Default.aspx
.

8
. Soreide, K., Ellingsen, C.L., Knutson, V. How Dangerous Is BASE Jumping? An Analysis of Adverse Events in 20,850 Jumps From the Kjerag Massif, Norway.
The Journal of Trauma: Injury, Infection, and Critical Care
. 2007 May;62(5):1113–7.

9
. British Sub-Aqua Club. UK Diving Fatalities Review. Available from:
http://www.bsac.com/page.asp?section=3780§ionTitle=UK+Diving+Fatalities+Review
.

10
. Redelmeier, D.A., Greenwald, J.A. Competing Risks of Mortality with Marathons: Retrospective Analysis.
BMJ
. 2007 Dec 22;335(7633):1275–7.

11
. Kipps, C., Sharma, S., Pedoe, D.T. The Incidence of Exercise-Associated Hyponatraemia in the London Marathon.
British Journal of Sports Medicine
. 2011 Jan 1;45(1):14–19.

12
. Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents. Home and Leisure Accident Statistics: RoSPA : HASS and LASS. Available from:
http://www.hassandlass.org.uk/query/index.htm
.

13
. See note 10 above.

14
. Bennett, P., Calman, K., Curtis, S., Fischbacher-Smith, D.
Risk Communication and Public Health
(Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2009).

Chapter 17: Lifestyle

1
.
Daily Express
. Less Meat, More Veg is the Secret for Longer Life. 2012. Available from:
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/307781
; Pan, A., Sun, Q., Bernstein, A.M., Schulze, M.B., Manson, J.E., Stampfer, M.J., et al. Red Meat Consumption and Mortality: Results From 2 Prospective Cohort Studies.
Arch Intern Med
. 2012 Apr 9;172(7):555–63.

2
. Partington, A.
The Oxford Dictionary of Quotations
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).

3
. Shaw, M., Mitchell, R., Dorling, D. Time for a Smoke? One Cigarette Reduces Your Life by 11 Minutes.
BMJ
. 2000 Jan 1;320(7226):53.

4
. Doll R. Mortality in Relation to Smoking: 50 Years’ Observations on Male British Doctors.
BMJ
. 2004 Jun 26;328:1519–20.

5
. Spiegelhalter, D. Using Speed of Ageing and ‘Microlives’ to Communicate the Effects of Lifetime Habits and Environment.
BMJ
. 17 Dec 2012;345(dec14 14):e8223–e8223.

6
. Prospective Studies Collaboration. Body-Mass Index and Cause-Specific Mortality in 900,000 Adults: Collaborative Analyses of 57 Prospective Studies.
The Lancet
. 2009 Mar;373:1083–96.

7
. Khaw K.-T., Wareham N., Bingham S., Welch A., Luben R., Day N. Combined Impact of Health Behaviours and Mortality in Men and Women: The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study.
PLoS Med
. 2008;5(1):e12

8
. NHS Information Centre. Statistics on Obesity, Physical Activity and Diet: England. 2012. Available from:
http://www.hscic.gov.uk/searchcatalogue?productid=4787&topics=2%2fPublic+health%2fLifestyle%2fPhysical+activity&sort=Relevance&size=10&page=1
.