The End of Power (49 page)

5
. Runyon,
On Broadway
, p. 87.

6
. As quoted by Winston Churchill in
The Second World War
, p. 105.

7
. “United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2012 Budget Request,” February 2012,
http://comptroller.defense.gov/defbudget/fy2012/FY2012_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
.

8
. Edward Luce, “The Mirage of Obama's Defense Cuts,”
Financial Times
, January 30, 2012.

9
. All of the investments made in military hardware under the Reagan administration will phase out over the 2010s and 2020s. Some in the Navy are arguing against carriers; if this position wins the debate, the United States might have less than eleven carriers in a decade or two.

10
. Human Security Report Project (HSRP),
Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and The Shrinking Costs of War
, December 2, 2010,
http://www.hsrgroup.org/human-security-reports/20092010/overview.aspx
.

11
. Ibid.

12
. Ibid.

13
. The event described in the text (based on “Amputations Soared Among US Troops in 2011,”
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/09/amputations-soared-among-us-troops-in-2011
/) is backed up by this particular chart from Pentagon:
http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/amp-chart.png
. The IED casualty figure comes from the Brookings Afghanistan index.

14
. ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB), Piracy & Armed Robbery News & Figures,
http://www.icc-ccs.org/piracy-reporting-centre/piracynewsafigures
.

15
. Damon Poeter, “Report: Massive Chamber of Commerce Hack Originated in China,”
PC Magazine
, December 21, 2011,
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2397920,00.asp
.

16
. Ann Scott Tyson, “US to Raise ‘Irregular War' Capabilities,”
Washington Post
, December 4, 2008; US Department of Defense,
Quadrennial Defense Review
, February 2010,
http://www.defense.gov/qdr/
.

17
. Thomas Mahnken, quoted in Andrew Burt, “America's Waning Military Edge,”
Yale Journal of International Affairs
, March 2012,
http://yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Op-ed-Andrew-Burt.pdf
.

18
. Mao Zedong, “The Relation of Guerrilla Hostilities to Regular Operations,”
http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/works/1937/guerrilla-warfare/ch01.htm
.

19
. Global Security, “Second Chechnya War—1999–2006,”
http://www.global security.org/military/world/war/chechnya2.htm
.

20
. William Lynn, quoted in Burt, “America's Waning Military Edge.”

21
. Ivan Arreguín-Toft, “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict,”
International Security
26, no. 1 (2001): 93–128; Ivan Arreguín-Toft, “How a Superpower Can End Up Losing to the Little Guys,”
Nieman Watchdog
, March 23, 2007,
www.niemanwatchdog.org
.

22
. Marc Hecker and Thomas Rid, “Jihadistes de tous les pays, dispersez-vous,”
Politique Internationale
123 (2009): fn 1.

23
. John Arquilla, “The New Rules of Engagement,”
Foreign Policy
, February–March 2010.

24
. Rod Nordland, “War's Risks Shift to Contractors,”
New York Times
, February 12, 2012.

25
. Singer,
Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the Twenty-First Century
, p. 18.

26
. Lind et al., “The Changing Face of War.”

27
. Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, “A New Kind of War,”
Foreign Policy
, January 20, 2010.

28
. Singer,
Wired for War.

29
. Sutherland,
Modern Warfare, Intelligence and Deterrence
, p. 101.

30
. Scott Wilson, “Drones Cast a Pall of Fear,”
Washington Post
, December 4, 2011.

31
. Francis Fukuyama, “The End of Mystery: Why We All Need a Drone of Our Own,”
Financial Times
, February 25, 2012.

32
. Christian Caryl, “America's IED Nightmare,”
Foreign Policy
, December 4, 2009; Thom Shanker, “Makeshift Bombs Spread Beyond Afghanistan, Iraq,”
New York Times
, October 29, 2009.

33
. Tom Vanden Brook, “IED Attacks in Afghanistan Set Record,”
USA Today
, January 25, 2012,
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012–01–25/IEDs-afghanistan/52795302/1
.

34
. Jarret Brachman, “Al Qaeda's Armies of One,”
Foreign Policy
, January 22, 2010; Reuel Marc Gerecht, “The Meaning of Al Qaeda's Double Agent,”
Wall Street Journal
, January 7, 2010.

35
. Amos Yadlin, quoted in Amir Oren, “IDF Dependence on Technology Spawns Whole New Battlefield,”
Haaretz
, January 3, 2010.

36
. Kaplan,
The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post–Cold War.

37
. Chua,
World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability.

38
. Hecker and Rid,
War 2.0: Irregular Warfare in the Information Age.

39
. Ann Scott Tyson, “New Pentagon Policy Says ‘Irregular Warfare' Will Get Same Attention as Traditional Combat,”
Washington Post
, December 4, 2008.

40
. Tony Capaccio, “Pentagon Bolstering Commandos After Success in Killing Bin Laden,”
Bloomberg News
, February 9, 2012.

41
. “The Changing Character of War,” ch. 7 in Institute for National Strategic Studies,
Global Strategic Assessment 2009
, p. 148.

42
. David E. Johnson et al., “Preparing and Training for the Full Spectrum of Military Challenges: Insights from the Experience of China, France, the United Kingdom, India and Israel,” National Defense Research Institute, 2009.

43
. John Arquilla interview in “Cyber War!,”
Frontline
, April 24, 2003,
www.pbs.org
.

44
. Amir Oren, “IDF Dependence on Technology Spawns Whole New Battlefield,”
Haaretz
, January 3, 2010.

45
. John Arquilla, “The New Rules of Engagement,”
Foreign Policy
, February–March 2010.

46
. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “Is Military Power Becoming Obsolete?”
Project Syndicate
, January 13, 2010.

47
. “Q and A: Mexico's Drug-Related Violence,”
BBC News
, March 30, 2012,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10681249
.

48
. Thomas Rid, “Cracks in the Jihad,”
The Wilson Quarterly
, Winter 2010.

49
. Hecker and Rid, “Jihadistes de tous les pays, dispersez-vous!”

1
. Peter Hartcher, “Tipping Point from West to Rest Just Passed,”
Sidney Morning Herald
, April 17, 2012.

2
. Comments to Hartcher's column dated April 17, 2012.

3
. “Secret US Embassy Cables Revealed,” Al Jazeera, November 29, 2010.

4
. Interview with Jessica Mathews, Washington, September 2012.

5
. Interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski, Washington, May 2012.

6
. Murphy,
Are We Rome? The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America.

7
. “Bin-Laden's Death One of Top News Stories of 21th Century,”
Global Language Monitor
, May 6, 2011,
http://www.languagemonitor.com/top-news/binladens-death-one-of-top-news-stories-of-21th-century/
.

8
. Robert Fogel, “123,000,000,000,000,”
Foreign Policy
, January–February 2010; see also Dadush,
Juggernaut.

9
. Joe Leahy and Stefan Wagstyl, “Brazil Becomes Sixth Biggest Economy,”
Financial Times
, March 7, 2012, p. 4.

10
. Kindleberger,
The World in Depression, 1929–1939;
see also Milner, “International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability,”
Foreign Policy
, Spring 1998.

11
. William C. Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,”
International Security
24, no. 1 (1999): 5–41.

12
. See Nye,
Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power
, and Nye,
Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.
In 2011, Nye published another book on the subject titled
The Future of Power.

13
. Patrick, “Multilateralism and Its Discontents: The Causes and Consequences of U.S. Ambivalence.”

14
. United States Department of State,
Treaties in Force: A List of Treaties and Other International Agreements of the United States in Force on January 1, 2012.

15
. Peter Liberman, “What to Read on American Primacy,”
Foreign Affairs
, March 12, 2009; see also Stephen Brooks and WilliamWohlforth, “Hard Times for Soft Balancing,”
International Security
30, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 72–108.

16
. Ferguson,
Colossus.

17
. Robert Kagan, “The End of the End of History,”
New Republic
, April 23, 2008.

18
. Robert A. Pape, “Soft Balancing Against the United States,”
International Security
30, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 7–45; on soft balancing, see also Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth, “Hard Times for Soft Balancing,”
International Security
30, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 72–108.

19
. Zakaria,
The Post-American World.

20
. Randall L. Schweller, “Ennui Becomes Us,”
The National Interest
, January–February 2010.

21
. Douglas M. Gibler,
International Military Alliances from 1648 to 2008.

22
. On the ISAF, see Anna Mulrine, “In Afghanistan, the NATO-led Force Is ‘Underresourced' for the Fight Against the Taliban: When It Comes to Combat, It Is a Coalition of the Willing and Not-So-Willing,”
U.S. News
, June 5, 2008.

23
. “Spanish Court says Venezuela Helped ETA, FARC,” Reuters, March 1, 2010.

24
. “Small Arms Report by the UN Secretary General, 2011,”
http://www.iansa.org/resource/2011/04/small-arms-report-by-the-un-secretary-general-2011
.

25
. For data on India and Brazil, see “Aid Architecture: An Overview of the Main Trends in Official Development Assistance Flows,” World Bank, May 2008.

26
. Homi Kharas, “Development Assistance in the 21st Century”; see also Waltz and Ramachandran, “Brave New World: A Literature Review of Emerging Donors and the Changing Nature of Foreign Assistance.”

27
. Kharas, “Development Assistance in the 21st Century.”

28
. Ibid.

29
. “Aid Architecture: An Overview of the Main Trends in Official Development Assistance Flows”; see also Homi Kharas, “Trends and Issues in Development Aid.”

30
. The sources for the data on south-south investment can be found in Chapter 8.

31
. For further information about the Pew Global Attitudes Project, see
http://www.pewglobal.org/
.

32
. Kathrin Hille, “Beijing Makes Voice Heard in US,”
Financial Times
, February 14, 2012.

33
. Joshua Kurlantzick, “China's Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power,” CEIP Policy Brief No. 47, June 2006; Kurlantzick, “Chinese Soft Power in Southeast
Asia,”
The Globalist
, July 7, 2007; Loro Horta, “China in Africa: Soft Power, Hard Results,” Yale Global Online, November 13, 2009; Joshua Eisenman and Joshua Kurlantzick, “China's Africa Strategy,”
Current History
, May 2006.

34
. Tharoor, “India's Bollywood Power”; see also Tharoor, “Indian Strategic Power: ‘Soft.'”

35
. “India Projecting Its Soft Power Globally: ICCR Chief,”
Deccan Herald
(New Delhi), October 7, 2011.

36
. Ibsen Martinez, “Romancing the Globe,”
Foreign Policy
, November 10, 2005; on the Korea example, see Akshita Nanda, “Korean Wave Now a Tsunami,”
Straits Times
, December 13, 2009.

37
. The Anholt-GfK Roper Nation Brands Index (2012),
http://www.gfkamerica.com/newsroom/press_releases/single_sites/008787/index.en.html
.

38
. Sam Dagher, Charles Levinson, and Margaret Coker, “Tiny Kingdom's Huge Role in Libya Draws Concern,”
Wall Street Journal
, October 17, 2011.