The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (50 page)

56. “Ethiopia and Egypt Dispute the Nile,” BBC News, posted February 24, 2005.

57. Alistair Lyon, “Arab World to Face Severe Water Scarcity By 2015,” Ottawa Citizen, November 4, 2010.

58. In his book, Dirt, David Montgomery makes a powerful case that soil erosion was a major cause of the Roman economy’s decline. David Montgomery, Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2007).

59. T. Beach et al., “Impacts of the Ancient Maya on Soils and Soil Erosion in the Central Maya Lowlands,” Catena 65, no.2 (February 28, 2006), pp. 166–178.

60. Richard Heinberg and Michael Blomford, The Food and Farming Transition, Post Carbon Institute, 2009, available online
postcarbon.org/report/41306-the-food-and-farming-transition-toward
.

61. Jonathan Foley, “The Other Inconvenient Truth: The Crisis in Global Land Use,” environment 360, posted October 5, 2009.

62. “World Fertilizer Consumption,” spreadsheet for “Food and Agriculture,” Earth Policy Institute Data Center, posted January 12, 2011,
earth-policy.org/data_center/C24
; Robert J. Diaz et al., “Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems,” Science 321, no.926 (2008).

63. David Tilman et al., “Agricultural Sustainability and Intensive Production Practices,” Nature 418 (August 8, 2002), pp. 671–677.

64. Scott Kilman and Liam Pleven, “Harvest Shocker Rattles Wall Street,” The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2010.

65. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Protect and Produce: Restoring the Land,” in Dimensions of Need — An Atlas of Food and Agriculture (Rome: FAO, 1995); Leo Horrigan, Robert S. Lawrence, and Polly Walker, “How Sustainable Agriculture Can Address the Environmental and Human Health Harms of Industrial Agriculture,” Environmental Health Perspectives 110, no.5 (May, 2002).

66. Patrick Déry and Bart Anderson, “Peak Phosphorus,” The Oil Drum, posted August 17, 2007,
theoildrum.com/node/2882
.

67. Patrick Déry, Pérenniser l’agriculture, Mémoire pour la Commission Sur l’Avenir de l’Agriculture du Québec, GREB, April 2007.

68. Juliet Eilperin, “World’s Fish Supply Running Out, Researchers Warn,” The Washington Post, November 3, 2006.

69. Corinne Podger, “Depleting Fish Stocks,” BBC World Service, posted August 29, 2000.

70. Julian Cribb, The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do to Avoid It (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2010).

71. R. D. Howard, J. A. DeWoody, and W. M. Muir, “Transgenic Male Mating Advantage Provides Opportunity for Trojan Gene Effect in Fish,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 101, no.9 (February 19, 2004), pp. 2934– 2938.

72. Darrel Good, “Corn and Soybean Supplies to Remain Tight for Another Year?” University of Illinois, ACES News, posted Janury 24, 2011.

73. Lester Brown, “The Great Food Crisis of 2011,” Foreign Policy, posted January 10, 2011.

74. A Rock and a Hard Place: Peak Phosphorus and the Threat to our Food Security (Bristol UK: Soil Association, 2010).

75. Recent analysis suggests that we may hit “peak” phosphate as early as 2033, after which supplies will become increasingly scarce and more expensive. Dana Cordell, Jan-Olof Drangert, and Stuart White, “The Story of Phosphorus: Global Food Security and Food for Thought,” Global Environmental Change 19, no.2 (May 2009), pp. 292–305.

76. “New Threat to Global Food Security as Phosphate Supplies Become Increasingly Scarce,” Soil Association, posted November 29, 2010.

77. Brian Palmer, “Has the Earth Run Out of Any Natural Resources?,” Slate, posted October 10, 2010.

78. Craig Clugston, “Increasing Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity — An Analysis,” Energy Bulletin, posted April 6, 2010.

79. James Kanter, “Europe Sounds Alarm on Minerals Shortage,” Green: A Blog About Energy and the Environment, The New York Times, posted June 16, 2010; Damien Gurco et al., Peak Minerals in Australia: A Review of Changing Impacts and Benefits, (Australia Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organization, March 2010); David Cohen, “Earth’s Natural Wealth: An Audit,” New Scientist 2605 (May 23, 2007), pp. 34–41; Michael Moyer, “How Much Is Left?,” Scientific American online, multimedia presentation, posted August 24, 2010.

80. Thomas D. Kelly and Grecia R. Matos, “Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities in the United States,” United States Geological Survey, Data Series 140, 2010,
minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/
.

81. Peter Goodchild, “Depletion of Key Resources: Facts at Your Fingertips,” Culture Change, posted January 27, 2010.

82. R. B. Gordon, M. Bertram, and T. E. Graedel, “Metal Stocks and Sustainability,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103, no.5 (January 31, 2006), p. 1209.

83. Walter Youngquist, Geodestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources Over Nations and Individuals (Portland OR: National Book Company, 1997).

84. Julian Phillips, Goldforecaster,
goldforecaster.com
.

85. Office of Policy and International Affairs, Critical Materials Strategy, US Department of Energy, December, 2010.

86. David Cohen, “Earth’s Natural Wealth: An Audit,” New Scientist 2605 (May 23, 2007).

87. Emma Woollacott, “Shortage of Alternative Energy Minerals Will Trigger Trade Wars,” TGDaily, posted November 1, 2010.

88. Cohen, “Earth’s Natural Wealth,” New Scientist.

89. “State Palladium Stockpile Nears Depletion,” The Moscow Times, October 11, 2010.

90. Thomas Seltmann, “Nuclear Power: The Beginning of the End,” Sun & Wind Energy (Energy Watch Group, November 2009).

91. “Peak Everything,”
Wired.com
,
wired.com/inspiredbyyou/2010/10/peak-everything/?ibypid=13
.

92. Aeldric, “The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give Us Warnings When They Are About to Fail?,” The Oil Drum, posted September 22, 2010,
anz.theoildrum.com/node/6974#more
.

93. Paul Crutzen, “The ‘Anthropocene’,” in Earth System Science in the Anthropocene: Emerging Issues and Problems, Eckart Ehlers and Thomas Krafft, eds. (New York: Springer, 2006).

94. Joseph A. Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, New Studies in Archaeology, (Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press, 1988).

95. Graeme Wearden, “BP oil spill costs to hit $40bn,” Guardian.co.uk, posted November 2, 2010.

96. “Pakistan Flood-Related Losses to Reach 43 Billion Dollars,” Earth Times, posted September 1, 2010; “Report: Wildfires, Drought Costing Russia $15 Billion,” Voice of America
News.com
, posted August 10, 2010.

97. The following source lists total costs of natural disasters for the year at $109 billion, but this does not include the $40 billion Deepwater Horizon spill. Pat Speer, “Natural Disasters Cost $109 Billion in 2010,” Insurance Networking News, posted January 24, 2011.

98. Subhankar Banarjee, “5 Mining Projects That Could Devastate the Entire Planet,” AlterNet, posted November 16, 2010.

99. John Carey, “Calculating the True Cost of Global Climate Change,” environment360, posted January 6, 2011.

100. “Stern Review: Unfavorable Critical Response,” Wikipedia, accessed January, 2011.

101. Two other strategies include capturing and sequestering the carbon from fossil fuel combustion, and capturing and sequestering atmospheric carbon. Currently human efforts along these lines (ignoring, for the moment, the natural ongoing carbon capturing processes in soils, forests, and oceans) are making only an insignificant difference in the rate of growth in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

102. Heinberg, Searching for a Miracle.

103. Juliette Jowit, “One in Five Plant Species Face Extinction,” The Guardian, September 29, 2010.

104. Frank Stephenson, “A Tale of Taxol,” Florida State University, Research in Review,
rinr.fsu.edu/fall2002/taxol.html
.

105. Jonathan Watts, “Biodiversity Loss Seen As Greater Financial Risk Than Terrorism,” The Guardian, October 27, 2010.

106. Richard Black, “Plankton Decline Across Oceans As Waters Warm,” BBC News, posted July 28, 2010.

107. Peter Tatchell, “The Oxygen Crisis,” The Guardian, August 13, 2008.

108. Matt Chorley, “$5,000,000,000,000: The Cost Each Year of Vanishing Rainforest,” The Independent, October 3, 2010.

109. Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne et al., “Untangling the Environmentalist’s Paradox: Why is Human Well-being Increasing as Ecosystem Services Degrade?” Bioscience 60, 8 (September 2010), pp. 576–589.

110. Jim, “Desdemona at 2: The Environmentalist’s Paradox,” Desdemona Despair, posted December 2, 2010.

111. European Environment Agency, European Environment State and Outlook Report 2010 (Denmark: EEA, 2010).

112. Mark Kinver, “Growing Demand for Resources ‘Threatens EU Economy’,” BBC News, posted November 30, 2010.

113. Nafeez Ahmed, “Study: Global Warming, Energy Shortages, Food Scarcity and Recession Could Cause Industrial ‘Failure’ in 10 Years,”
OpEdNews.com
, posted October 5, 2010.

114. Ahmed, “Study: Global Warming, Energy Shortages, Food Scarcity and Recession.”

Chapter Four

1. See H. C. Barnett and C. Morse, Scarcity and Growth (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1963).

2. For an excellent discussion of whether the shift from cheap conventional oil to expensive non-conventional liquid fuels constitutes “substitution” in the economic sense, see David Murphy, “Does Peak Oil Even Matter?,” The Oil Drum, December 17, 2010,
theoildrum.com/node/7246#more
.

3. Environmental Protection Agency, Biofuels and the Environment: The First Triennial Report to Congress, Draft Report EPA/600/R-10/183A, January 28, 2011.

4. David Pimentel and Tad W. Patzek, “Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower,” Natural Resources Research 14, no.1 (March 2005).

5. Hosein Shapouri, James Duffield, and Michael Wang, “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update,” US Department of Agriculture, Office of Energy Policy and New Uses, Report No. 813, 2002.

6. David Pimental and Tad Patzek, “Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass and Wood: Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower,” Natural Resources Research 14, no.1 (March 2005); Adam Liska et al., “Improvements in Life Cycle Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Corn Ethanol,” J. Industrial Ecology, 13, no.1 (2009); Jason Hill et al., “Environmental, Economic, and Energetic Costs and Benefits of Biodiesel and Ethanol Biofuels,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (July 25, 2006). A recent paper by David Murphy on ethanol (Murphy et al., “New Perspectives on the Energy Return on (Energy) Investment (EROI) of Corn Ethanol,” Environment, Development and Sustainability 13:179–202, 2011) calculates the 95 percent confidence interval surrounding the various estimates of EROEI of corn ethanol that are found in the literature. The results are that the EROEI = 1.01 ± 0.2. Therefore we cannot say, with any certainty, that the EROEI of corn ethanol is above 1.

7. Charles A. S. Hall and the “EROI Study Team,” “Provisional Results from EROI Assessments,” The Oil Drum, posted April 8, 2008,
theoildrum.com/node/3810
.

8. “New Forecast Warns Oil Will Run Dry Before Substitutes Roll Out,” UC Davis News Service, posted November 9, 2010; Helen Knight, “Green Machine: Markets Hint at 100-Year Energy Gap,” New Scientist online, posted November 11, 2010.

9. Kurt Zenz House, “The Limits of Energy Storage Technology,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 20, 2009.

10. Aeldric, “The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give Us Warnings When They Are About to Fail?” The Oil Drum, posted September 22, 2010,
anz.theoildrum.com/node/6974#more
.