Quirkology (14 page)
Authors: Richard Wiseman
Matthew and I debated the ethics of the situation for at least a few seconds, and then we started to analyze the information. We noticed that some numbers were being chosen by lucky people and avoided by unlucky people. We slowly identified the “most likely” winning numbers: 1, 7, 17, 29, 37, and 44. For the first and only time in my life, I bought a lottery ticket. The UK National Lottery draw takes place every Saturday night and is broadcast live on prime-time television. As usual, the forty-nine balls were placed in a rotating drum; six balls and a special “bonus” ball were randomly selected. The winning numbers were 2, 13, 19, 21, 45, 32. We hadn’t managed to match any of the numbers. But had the lucky and unlucky people in our experiment fared any better? Actually, there was no difference. Lucky people did no better than unlucky people, and those using any kind of superstitious ritual were just as unsuccessful as those choosing their numbers randomly. There were also no differences between decisions based on birth dates, children’s ages, or pets’ behavior. In short: Rationality 1; Superstition 0.
Other researchers have taken more unusual approaches to the issue. One of my favorite experiments was conducted by an American high school student named Mark Levin.
18
Levin and his friends set out to test the popular belief that if a black cat crosses your path, bad luck will result. First they asked people to measure their fortune by playing a simple computerized coin-tossing game in which they had to guess whether a coin would land heads or tails. Next, highly skilled cat wranglers ensured that a black cat walked across these people’s paths as they ambled along a corridor. Finally, all the participants played the coin-tossing game a second time in order to reassess the state of their fortune. After much coin tossing and cat crossing, the results revealed that the black cat had absolutely no effect on good or bad fortune. To make certain that they had left no stone unturned, the researchers repeated the experiment with a white cat, and again obtained null results. Levin ended his article by noting that critics of his experiment might argue that the bad fortune associated with a black cat manifests itself only in real-life situations, not in an experiment involving a coin-tossing game, but he refuted the idea: “I own a black cat, and although she has crossed my path hundreds of times, I see no degradation in my school work or social life.”
18
Levin and his friends set out to test the popular belief that if a black cat crosses your path, bad luck will result. First they asked people to measure their fortune by playing a simple computerized coin-tossing game in which they had to guess whether a coin would land heads or tails. Next, highly skilled cat wranglers ensured that a black cat walked across these people’s paths as they ambled along a corridor. Finally, all the participants played the coin-tossing game a second time in order to reassess the state of their fortune. After much coin tossing and cat crossing, the results revealed that the black cat had absolutely no effect on good or bad fortune. To make certain that they had left no stone unturned, the researchers repeated the experiment with a white cat, and again obtained null results. Levin ended his article by noting that critics of his experiment might argue that the bad fortune associated with a black cat manifests itself only in real-life situations, not in an experiment involving a coin-tossing game, but he refuted the idea: “I own a black cat, and although she has crossed my path hundreds of times, I see no degradation in my school work or social life.”
Similar work has been carried out in those most apparently rational of places: hospitals. Doctors are a surprisingly superstitious lot, as shown by work on alleged behavioral effects associated with a full moon. When a team of American researchers examined almost 1,500 records of trauma victims admitted to a hospital during a twelve-month period, they found no relationship between there being a full moon and number of admissions, mortality rate, type of injury, or length of stay.
19
Despite this, a survey conducted in 1987, and reported in a paper titled “Lunacy
,
” revealed that 64 percent of emergency physicians were convinced that the full moon affected patient behavior.
20
Of these, 92 percent of nurses reported that working during a full moon was more stressful, although there is reason for skepticism about this latter finding given that the same people also argued that such stress justified “lunar pay differentials.”
19
Despite this, a survey conducted in 1987, and reported in a paper titled “Lunacy
,
” revealed that 64 percent of emergency physicians were convinced that the full moon affected patient behavior.
20
Of these, 92 percent of nurses reported that working during a full moon was more stressful, although there is reason for skepticism about this latter finding given that the same people also argued that such stress justified “lunar pay differentials.”
It doesn’t stop there. In the same way that well-wishing is considered unlucky in the theater (causing actors to tell their fellow thespians to “break a leg”), so doctors working in emergency rooms consider that comments such as “looks as though it will be a quiet night” can bring on a flood of new patients. This superstition was put to the test by Andrew Ahn and his colleagues from Massachusetts General Hospital, and described in the pages of the
American Journal of Medicine.
21
Thirty doctors were randomly assigned to one of two groups. A “jinxed” group received this message: “You will have a great on-call day.” Those in the control group received a blank piece of paper.
American Journal of Medicine.
21
Thirty doctors were randomly assigned to one of two groups. A “jinxed” group received this message: “You will have a great on-call day.” Those in the control group received a blank piece of paper.
The jinxed group did not receive any more admissions, or any less sleep, than a control condition (if anything, those receiving the message seemed to have fewer patients and more sleep than those receiving the blank piece of paper).
As with all important findings in science, this work has now been replicated in different parts of the world. In one test, two British medics, Patrick Davis and Adam Fox, randomly assigned each of their days on an emergency ward to one of two conditions: a control day or a
Q
day.
22
During the control days, the team discussed the weather; during a
Q
day they spoke about how they all thought it would be a quiet night. In line with the results obtained by their counterparts in the United States, the British physicians found no significant differences between the numbers of admissions between the two conditions.
Q
day.
22
During the control days, the team discussed the weather; during a
Q
day they spoke about how they all thought it would be a quiet night. In line with the results obtained by their counterparts in the United States, the British physicians found no significant differences between the numbers of admissions between the two conditions.
What is probably the most systematic and thorough test of superstition dates back to the turn of the last century. In the 1880s, an American Civil War veteran, Captain William Fowler, decided to tempt fate by creating a Thirteen Club in New York.
23
The idea was simple. He would invite twelve guests to join him for dinner on the thirteenth day of each month and then break various widely held superstitions such as spilling salt on the table, crossing forks, and opening umbrellas indoors. The scheme was an instant success and the Thirteen Club quickly became one of New York’s most popular social clubs. As the club’s membership grew, Fowler had to hire ever-larger rooms capable of holding several tables each containing thirteen guests. Over the next forty years or so, the club’s membership ran into the thousands, and its list of honorary members included no less than five successive American presidents. The members’ strength of feeling against the superstitious mind-set should not be underestimated. In a speech to the club on December 13, 1886, the politician, agnostic, and orator Robert Green Ingersoll noted:
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The idea was simple. He would invite twelve guests to join him for dinner on the thirteenth day of each month and then break various widely held superstitions such as spilling salt on the table, crossing forks, and opening umbrellas indoors. The scheme was an instant success and the Thirteen Club quickly became one of New York’s most popular social clubs. As the club’s membership grew, Fowler had to hire ever-larger rooms capable of holding several tables each containing thirteen guests. Over the next forty years or so, the club’s membership ran into the thousands, and its list of honorary members included no less than five successive American presidents. The members’ strength of feeling against the superstitious mind-set should not be underestimated. In a speech to the club on December 13, 1886, the politician, agnostic, and orator Robert Green Ingersoll noted:
The most important thing in this world is the destruction of superstition. Superstition interferes with the happiness of mankind. Superstition is a terrible serpent, reaching in frightful coils from heaven to earth and thrusting its poisoned fangs into the hearts of men. While I live, I am going to do what little I can for the destruction of this monster.
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Ingersoll went on to explain that if he discovered there was an afterlife when he died, he would spend his time there continuing to argue with those who believed in the supernatural. Despite consistently engaging in behavior that allegedly attracted little but ill-fortune, death, and disease, the members of the Thirteen Club proved remarkably healthy and happy. At the club’s thirteenth dinner in 1895, Fowler reported that the death rate of members was slightly
below
that of the general population. The positive effects of breaking superstitious taboos were underlined by the comments made by one-time club leader, J. Arthur Lehman, in 1936: “My advice to anyone that wants real luck and happiness and health is to break every possible known superstition today. . . . All of the members of the Club that I can remember had good luck . . . I’m seventy-eight now and I defy you to find anyone happier or healthier than I am.”
below
that of the general population. The positive effects of breaking superstitious taboos were underlined by the comments made by one-time club leader, J. Arthur Lehman, in 1936: “My advice to anyone that wants real luck and happiness and health is to break every possible known superstition today. . . . All of the members of the Club that I can remember had good luck . . . I’m seventy-eight now and I defy you to find anyone happier or healthier than I am.”
So if superstitions have no validity, why have they survived the test of time and been passed down from generation to generation? Part of the answer takes us from the islanders off the coast of New Guinea to Israelis trying to cope with SCUD attacks during the first Gulf War.
Bronislaw Malinowski was one of the world’s greatest anthropologists. He grew up in Poland, where he studied mathematics and the physical sciences. However, a chance encounter changed Malinowski’s life. While preparing for a foreign-language exam, he came across a copy of
The Golden Bough
by the renowned anthropologist Sir James Frazer. Frazer’s book was a detailed study of magic and religion in diverse cultures across the world. The book persuaded Malinowski to travel to Britain and pursue a career in anthropology. In 1914, partly to escape possible internment at the outbreak of World War I, Malinowski traveled to Melanesia, a small island off the coast of New Guinea, to immerse himself in the culture of an isolated community known as the Trobriand Islanders. His book describing his subsequent work there,
Argonauts of the Western Pacific,
is now universally regarded as a masterpiece.
25
The Golden Bough
by the renowned anthropologist Sir James Frazer. Frazer’s book was a detailed study of magic and religion in diverse cultures across the world. The book persuaded Malinowski to travel to Britain and pursue a career in anthropology. In 1914, partly to escape possible internment at the outbreak of World War I, Malinowski traveled to Melanesia, a small island off the coast of New Guinea, to immerse himself in the culture of an isolated community known as the Trobriand Islanders. His book describing his subsequent work there,
Argonauts of the Western Pacific,
is now universally regarded as a masterpiece.
25
Malinowski studied many aspects of the Trobrianders’ daily lives, and he was especially interested in one aspect: their superstitious behavior. He noticed that the Trobrianders used standard fishing techniques when they worked in the relatively calm waters of a lagoon, and engaged in elaborate magical and superstitious rituals only when they ventured onto the much more dangerous open seas. Malinowski speculated that superstitious behavior had its roots in the unpredictability of the islanders’ lives. When fishing in the lagoons, the Trobrianders faced little uncertainty. However, the situation was completely different on the open seas: Here they knew that life was far more unpredictable, and so they attempted a variety of magical rituals in a vain attempt to gain control of the situation and decrease the danger.
It might be nice to believe that irrationality was confined to a group of isolated islanders in the 1920s, but exactly the same pressures that forced the Trobrianders to carry out elaborate rituals in the open seas around Melanesia also cause us to touch wood, cross our fingers, and reach for the lucky rabbits’ feet.
By the middle of the 1920s, inflation in Germany was so high that paper money was carried in shopping bags. People were eager to spend their money the moment they had it for fear that it would be severely devalued the following day. By 1932, almost half the population was unemployed. In 1982, Vernon Padgett from Marshall University and Dale Jorgenson from the California State University published a paper comparing the number of articles on astrology, mysticism, and cults that appeared in major German magazines and newspapers between the two world wars and the degree of economic threat during those years.
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Articles on gardening and cooking were also counted as controls. An index of economic threat was calculated on the basis of wages, percentage of unemployed trade union members, and industrial production. When people were suffering an economic downturn, the number of articles on superstition increased. When things were going better, they decreased. The strong relationship between the two factors caused the authors to conclude that “just as the Trobriand islanders surrounded their more dangerous deep sea fishing with superstitions, Germans in the 1920s and 1930s became more superstitious during times of economic threat.”
26
Articles on gardening and cooking were also counted as controls. An index of economic threat was calculated on the basis of wages, percentage of unemployed trade union members, and industrial production. When people were suffering an economic downturn, the number of articles on superstition increased. When things were going better, they decreased. The strong relationship between the two factors caused the authors to conclude that “just as the Trobriand islanders surrounded their more dangerous deep sea fishing with superstitions, Germans in the 1920s and 1930s became more superstitious during times of economic threat.”
The authors linked their findings to much broader social issues, noting that in times of increased uncertainty people look for a sense of certainty, a need that can cause them to support strong leadership regimes and to believe in such irrational determinants of their fate as superstition and mysticism.
A study carried out in Israel by psychologists at the University of Tel Aviv during the 1991 Gulf War graphically illustrated the same idea.
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Soon after the war began it became clear that some cities, such as Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan, were in danger of attack from SCUD missiles; others, such as Jerusalem and Tiberias, were relatively safe. The researchers wondered whether the increased stress associated with living in the more dangerous areas would encourage people to become more superstitious. To test this idea, they put together a questionnaire about superstition. Some of the items asked about well-known examples of magical thinking, such as whether it was a good idea to shake hands with a lucky person, or to carry a lucky charm. Others concerned newly formed types of superstitious behavior that had emerged since the onset of the attacks. For example, since the mid-1980s, buildings in Israel had been constructed with a room capable of being sealed with plastic in order to protect its occupants from a gas attack. The questionnaire asked people whether they thought it best always to step into the sealed room right foot first and whether the chances of being hit during an attack were greater if a person whose house had already been hit was present in the sealed room. Next, the researchers went door to door in both high- and low-risk areas asking about two hundred people whether they carried out these behaviors. The researchers’ speculations were confirmed: People living in areas subjected to severe missile attacks had developed far more superstitious beliefs and behaviors than those living in less dangerous parts of the country.
27
Soon after the war began it became clear that some cities, such as Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan, were in danger of attack from SCUD missiles; others, such as Jerusalem and Tiberias, were relatively safe. The researchers wondered whether the increased stress associated with living in the more dangerous areas would encourage people to become more superstitious. To test this idea, they put together a questionnaire about superstition. Some of the items asked about well-known examples of magical thinking, such as whether it was a good idea to shake hands with a lucky person, or to carry a lucky charm. Others concerned newly formed types of superstitious behavior that had emerged since the onset of the attacks. For example, since the mid-1980s, buildings in Israel had been constructed with a room capable of being sealed with plastic in order to protect its occupants from a gas attack. The questionnaire asked people whether they thought it best always to step into the sealed room right foot first and whether the chances of being hit during an attack were greater if a person whose house had already been hit was present in the sealed room. Next, the researchers went door to door in both high- and low-risk areas asking about two hundred people whether they carried out these behaviors. The researchers’ speculations were confirmed: People living in areas subjected to severe missile attacks had developed far more superstitious beliefs and behaviors than those living in less dangerous parts of the country.
The research from New Guinea, Germany, and Israel all suggests that many people become superstitious to help them cope with uncertainty. However, other work shows that these beliefs can also develop for quite different reasons and have far more negative consequences.
Sir James Frazer, in his classic text on magic and religion, describes several types of magical thinking. One of the most fundamental is the “law of contagion.” According to the theory, once an object has been in contact with a person, the object somehow possesses the “essence” of that person. In certain magical rituals, a person trying to cast a spell may try to obtain the hair or fingernail clippings of an intended victim and use this to exert some kind of (usually negative) influence over them.
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