Quirkology (13 page)
Authors: Richard Wiseman
Dr. Samuel Johnson always tried to court good fortune by leaving his house right foot first and avoiding stepping on cracks in the pavement. Adolf Hitler believed in the magical powers of the number seven. President Woodrow Wilson believed the number thirteen had consistently brought luck into his life, noting that there were thirteen letters in his name, and during his thirteenth year at Princeton University he became their thirteenth president.
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His Royal Highness Prince Philip apparently taps on his polo helmet seven times before a game. The Swiss tennis ace Martina Hingis allegedly avoids stepping on the court lines between points. The basketball star Chuck Persons admitted to feeling nervous before a game unless he had eaten two KitKats or two Snickers bars, or one KitKat and one Snickers bar.
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Even the Nobel Prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr is rumored to have placed a horseshoe over his door (although here the evidence is debatable; when asked whether he thought it really brought him good luck, Bohr replied “No, but I am told it works whether you believe in it or not . . . ”).
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His Royal Highness Prince Philip apparently taps on his polo helmet seven times before a game. The Swiss tennis ace Martina Hingis allegedly avoids stepping on the court lines between points. The basketball star Chuck Persons admitted to feeling nervous before a game unless he had eaten two KitKats or two Snickers bars, or one KitKat and one Snickers bar.
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Even the Nobel Prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr is rumored to have placed a horseshoe over his door (although here the evidence is debatable; when asked whether he thought it really brought him good luck, Bohr replied “No, but I am told it works whether you believe in it or not . . . ”).
Irrationality is not restricted to princes, politicians, and physicists. According to a recent Gallup poll, 53 percent of Americans are at least a little superstitious, and an additional 25 percent admitted to being somewhat or very superstitious.
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Another survey revealed that 72 percent of the public said that they possessed at least one good luck charm.
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The results of my own 2003 superstition survey, conducted in collaboration with the British Association for the Advancement of Science, revealed the same high levels of belief in modern-day Britain: Approximately 80 percent of Britons routinely touch wood, 64 percent cross their fingers, and 49 percent avoid walking under ladders.
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Even some of the brightest students in the United States engage in this type of behavior. Harvard undergraduates routinely touch the foot of the statue of John Harvard for good luck before going into their exams, and those at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology rub the nose of a brass image of the inventor George Eastman. Over the years, both Harvard’s foot and Eastman’s nose have developed considerable superstition-induced shines.
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Another survey revealed that 72 percent of the public said that they possessed at least one good luck charm.
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The results of my own 2003 superstition survey, conducted in collaboration with the British Association for the Advancement of Science, revealed the same high levels of belief in modern-day Britain: Approximately 80 percent of Britons routinely touch wood, 64 percent cross their fingers, and 49 percent avoid walking under ladders.
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Even some of the brightest students in the United States engage in this type of behavior. Harvard undergraduates routinely touch the foot of the statue of John Harvard for good luck before going into their exams, and those at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology rub the nose of a brass image of the inventor George Eastman. Over the years, both Harvard’s foot and Eastman’s nose have developed considerable superstition-induced shines.
Although the consequences of many traditional beliefs, such as touching wood or carrying a lucky charm, are relatively harmless, the effects of other superstitious ideas have far more serious implications. In early 1993, researchers wanted to discover whether it really was unlucky to live in a house numbered thirteen.
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They placed advertisements in more than thirty local newspapers, asking people living in “number thirteen” houses to get in touch and rate whether their good fortune had decreased after moving to such a house. Five hundred replied, with approximately one in ten reporting that they had experienced more bad luck as a result of moving to the unlucky number. The researchers then wondered whether the belief might affect house prices and so conducted a national survey of real-estate agents about the issue. A surprising 40 percent said that buyers were often resistant to buying property numbered thirteen, and that this often resulted in sellers having to lower the price of the properties.
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They placed advertisements in more than thirty local newspapers, asking people living in “number thirteen” houses to get in touch and rate whether their good fortune had decreased after moving to such a house. Five hundred replied, with approximately one in ten reporting that they had experienced more bad luck as a result of moving to the unlucky number. The researchers then wondered whether the belief might affect house prices and so conducted a national survey of real-estate agents about the issue. A surprising 40 percent said that buyers were often resistant to buying property numbered thirteen, and that this often resulted in sellers having to lower the price of the properties.
At other times, the effects can be a matter of life or death. In chapter 1, we met David Phillips, the sociologist who investigated whether people’s birth dates influenced time of death. In an article published in the
British Medical Journal,
Phillips reported a link between superstition and the precise moment of passing away.
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In Mandarin, Cantonese, and Japanese, the words for “death” and “four” are pronounced in almost exactly the same way. Because of this, the number 4 is seen as unlucky in Chinese and Japanese cultures. Many Chinese hospitals do not have a fourth floor, and some Japanese people are nervous about travelling on the fourth day of the month. The link also stretches to California, where new businesses are offered a choice of the last four digits in their telephone numbers. Phillips noticed that Chinese and Japanese restaurants contain about a third fewer instances of the number 4 than expected, a pattern absent in restaurants describing themselves as American. All this led Phillips to wonder whether the superstitious stress induced on the fourth day of each month played an important role in health. Could it be linked, for example, to the onset of a heart attack?
British Medical Journal,
Phillips reported a link between superstition and the precise moment of passing away.
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In Mandarin, Cantonese, and Japanese, the words for “death” and “four” are pronounced in almost exactly the same way. Because of this, the number 4 is seen as unlucky in Chinese and Japanese cultures. Many Chinese hospitals do not have a fourth floor, and some Japanese people are nervous about travelling on the fourth day of the month. The link also stretches to California, where new businesses are offered a choice of the last four digits in their telephone numbers. Phillips noticed that Chinese and Japanese restaurants contain about a third fewer instances of the number 4 than expected, a pattern absent in restaurants describing themselves as American. All this led Phillips to wonder whether the superstitious stress induced on the fourth day of each month played an important role in health. Could it be linked, for example, to the onset of a heart attack?
To assess the possible effects of these beliefs on health, Phillips and his team analyzed the records of more than 47 million people who had died in the United States between 1973 and 1998. They compared the day of death of Chinese and Japanese Americans with white Americans, discovering that in the Chinese and Japanese populations, cardiac deaths were 7 percent higher on the fourth day of each month than on any other day. This figure jumped to 13 percent when the investigators focused on chronic heart deaths. The mortality data from white Americans contained no peaks. The work is controversial, and has been questioned by other researchers.
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Nevertheless, Phillips and his team are confident that something strange is happening, and they named the alleged effect after Charles Baskerville, a character in the Arthur Conan Doyle story
The Hound of the Baskervilles,
who suffers a fatal heart attack from extreme psychological stress.
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Nevertheless, Phillips and his team are confident that something strange is happening, and they named the alleged effect after Charles Baskerville, a character in the Arthur Conan Doyle story
The Hound of the Baskervilles,
who suffers a fatal heart attack from extreme psychological stress.
It is one thing for superstitious people to inadvertently kill themselves, but quite another when their beliefs directly affect other people’s lives. Thomas Scanlon and colleagues looked at traffic flow, shopping centers, and emergency hospital admissions that occurred on Friday the thirteenth. They discovered significantly less traffic flow, over a two-year period, on sections of London’s orbital M25 motorway on Friday the thirteenth compared to Friday the sixth, suggesting that nervous drivers may be staying indoors.
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They then examined various types of hospital admission on the two dates, including poisoning, injuries caused by venomous animals, self-harm, and traffic-related accidents. Of these, only the traffic accident grouping showed a significant effect, with more accidents on Friday the thirteenth than Friday the sixth.
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They then examined various types of hospital admission on the two dates, including poisoning, injuries caused by venomous animals, self-harm, and traffic-related accidents. Of these, only the traffic accident grouping showed a significant effect, with more accidents on Friday the thirteenth than Friday the sixth.
The effect is far from trivial, with an increase of 52 percent on the fateful day. However, Scanlon and his colleagues had access only to admissions from one hospital, so the numbers were relatively small, and thus it was possible that their findings were simply due to chance. In a significantly larger but equally controversial study, the Finnish research Simo Näyhä examined similar records between 1971 and 1997 for the whole of Finland.
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During this time there were 324 Friday the thirteenths and 1,339 “control” Fridays. The results supported the previous research, especially for women. Of the deaths for men, only 5 percent could be attributed to the unlucky day, but for women the figure was 38 percent. Both sets of researchers attributed the rise in accident rates to drivers’ feelings of nervousness on the most inauspicious of unlucky days. The message is clear: Superstition kills.
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During this time there were 324 Friday the thirteenths and 1,339 “control” Fridays. The results supported the previous research, especially for women. Of the deaths for men, only 5 percent could be attributed to the unlucky day, but for women the figure was 38 percent. Both sets of researchers attributed the rise in accident rates to drivers’ feelings of nervousness on the most inauspicious of unlucky days. The message is clear: Superstition kills.
Superstitious beliefs can also exert a significant effect on entire societies. According to the ancient Sino-Japanese almanac, each year is labeled on the basis of two elements: one of twelve animals (such as a sheep, a monkey, or a chicken) and ten heavenly symbols (such as earth, metal, or water). The year of the Fire-Horse occurs just once every sixty years, which is perhaps just as well, because it symbolizes little but bad fortune. According to legend, women born in this year will have a fiery temperament, making them highly undesirable wives. Although this notion stretches back into the mists of time, it is kept alive in modern-day Japan through a popular Kabuki drama based on the story of Yaoya Oshichi. According to the story, in 1682 Oshichi fell in love with a young priest and thought it best to start a small fire to help cement their love. Unfortunately, she was born in the year of the Fire-Horse, and the fire spread out of control and eventually destroyed almost the whole of Tokyo.
The last year of the Fire-Horse was 1966, and the Japanese researcher Kanae Kaku decided to use the opportunity to examine whether superstitious thinking had an effect on the population of Japan.
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The answer was a resounding, and astounding, yes. The year 1966 saw a 25 percent decrease in the Japanese birthrate (corresponding to almost half a million fewer babies born during the year), and an increase of more than 20,000 induced abortions. Subsequently, Kaku found similar drops in the 1966 birthrates for Japanese people living in California and Hawaii.
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The answer was a resounding, and astounding, yes. The year 1966 saw a 25 percent decrease in the Japanese birthrate (corresponding to almost half a million fewer babies born during the year), and an increase of more than 20,000 induced abortions. Subsequently, Kaku found similar drops in the 1966 birthrates for Japanese people living in California and Hawaii.
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Curious, Kaku dug deeper into the data, and discovered something even more remarkable.
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According to legend, females born during the year of the Fire-Horse will lead especially unlucky, and ill-fated, lives. In 1966, there was no easy method for determining the sex of a child prior to birth, and thus the only way to ensure a dearth of female offspring would involve infanticide. Would parents actually be prepared to kill their female babies simply because of an age-old superstitious belief? Kaku examined the neonatal mortality rates from accidents, poisoning, and an external cause of violence between 1961 and 1967. The results were chilling. In 1966, the mortality rates for newborn girls, but not boys, were significantly higher than in the surrounding years. These patterns caused Kaku to conclude that Japanese girls were indeed being “sacrificed to a folk superstition” during the year of the Fire-Horse.
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According to legend, females born during the year of the Fire-Horse will lead especially unlucky, and ill-fated, lives. In 1966, there was no easy method for determining the sex of a child prior to birth, and thus the only way to ensure a dearth of female offspring would involve infanticide. Would parents actually be prepared to kill their female babies simply because of an age-old superstitious belief? Kaku examined the neonatal mortality rates from accidents, poisoning, and an external cause of violence between 1961 and 1967. The results were chilling. In 1966, the mortality rates for newborn girls, but not boys, were significantly higher than in the surrounding years. These patterns caused Kaku to conclude that Japanese girls were indeed being “sacrificed to a folk superstition” during the year of the Fire-Horse.
Kenji Hira and his team, researchers from Kyoto University, assessed the financial costs of another type of Japanese superstition.
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Before 1873, Japan utilized a six-day lunar calendar, the days being designated Sensho, Tomobiki, Senpu, Butsumetsu, Taian, and Shakku. Even today, Taian is traditionally seen as a lucky day and Butsumetsu as an unlucky day. Because of this, many hospital patients wish to be discharged on Taian. Figures from three years of recent hospital admissions revealed that many patients were indeed arranging to ensure this outcome. The researchers estimated that this superstitious behavior cost Japan millions of dollars each year. In Ireland, too, there is a superstitious belief about hospitals: If you leave a place on a Saturday, you are unlikely to be away for long (“Saturday flit, short sit”). An analysis of 77,000 Irish maternity records over four years revealed that about 35 percent fewer patients than expected were discharged on Saturdays, but increases of 23 percent and 17 percent in discharges were observed on Fridays and Sundays, respectively.
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Before 1873, Japan utilized a six-day lunar calendar, the days being designated Sensho, Tomobiki, Senpu, Butsumetsu, Taian, and Shakku. Even today, Taian is traditionally seen as a lucky day and Butsumetsu as an unlucky day. Because of this, many hospital patients wish to be discharged on Taian. Figures from three years of recent hospital admissions revealed that many patients were indeed arranging to ensure this outcome. The researchers estimated that this superstitious behavior cost Japan millions of dollars each year. In Ireland, too, there is a superstitious belief about hospitals: If you leave a place on a Saturday, you are unlikely to be away for long (“Saturday flit, short sit”). An analysis of 77,000 Irish maternity records over four years revealed that about 35 percent fewer patients than expected were discharged on Saturdays, but increases of 23 percent and 17 percent in discharges were observed on Fridays and Sundays, respectively.
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The message is clear. Superstitious beliefs are not just about the harmless touching of wood or the crossing of fingers. Instead, they can affect house prices, the number of people injured and killed in traffic accidents, abortion rates, monthly death statistics, and they can even force hospitals to waste significant amounts of funding on unnecessary patient care. Given the important implications of superstition, it perhaps isn’t surprising that many researchers have examined just why it is that so many people allow irrational ideas to affect the way they think and behave.
Proponents of superstition argue that there must be something to these beliefs because they have survived the test of time. They have a point. Lucky charms, amulets, and talismans have been found in virtually all civilizations throughout recorded history. Touching wood dates back to pagan rituals that were designed to elicit the help of benign and powerful tree gods. When a ladder is propped up against a wall it forms a natural triangle, which was seen as symbolic of the Holy Trinity, and to walk under the ladder was seen as breaking the Trinity. The number thirteen is seen as unlucky because there were thirteen people at Christ’s last supper.
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Skeptics view this type of historical data not as evidence of the validity of superstition but as a depressingly deep-seated irrationality, noting that scientific tests of superstition have consistently obtained negative findings. They, too, have a point. The alleged relationship between superstitious behavior and national lotteries is a good example. Each week, millions of people around the world buy lottery tickets in the hope of changing their lives for the better. The winning numbers are drawn at random, and so there should be no way of predicting the outcome of the lottery. But that doesn’t stop people from trying all sorts of magical rituals to increase their chances of being successful. Some people choose the same “lucky” numbers every week. Others base their choices on their birthdays, their children’s ages, or their addresses. A few have even developed more obscure rituals, including writing each of the numbers on pieces of paper, spreading them across the floor, letting the cat into the room, and choosing those touched by the cat.
When the National Lottery was first launched in Britain, I worked with fellow psychologists, Peter Harris and Matthew Smith, to put these rituals to the test.
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In a large-scale experiment conducted with a BBC television program called
Out of This World,
we asked 1,000 lottery players to send us their numbers prior to a draw, to indicate whether they thought themselves lucky or unlucky, and to describe the method they had used to make their selection. The lottery forms were returned remarkably quickly. In all, we received replies from seven hundred people who, among them, intended to buy about 2,000 lottery tickets. After Matthew and I had entered everyone’s choice of numbers into a giant spreadsheet the day before the draw, we realized that we had collected some extraordinary information. If lucky people really do pick more winning lottery numbers than unlucky people, then the numbers that were being chosen by the lucky people, but not by the unlucky ones, would be more likely to be winning numbers. It hadn’t occurred to us before, but if the theory was right, some of the data we had collected for our experiment could make us millionaires.
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In a large-scale experiment conducted with a BBC television program called
Out of This World,
we asked 1,000 lottery players to send us their numbers prior to a draw, to indicate whether they thought themselves lucky or unlucky, and to describe the method they had used to make their selection. The lottery forms were returned remarkably quickly. In all, we received replies from seven hundred people who, among them, intended to buy about 2,000 lottery tickets. After Matthew and I had entered everyone’s choice of numbers into a giant spreadsheet the day before the draw, we realized that we had collected some extraordinary information. If lucky people really do pick more winning lottery numbers than unlucky people, then the numbers that were being chosen by the lucky people, but not by the unlucky ones, would be more likely to be winning numbers. It hadn’t occurred to us before, but if the theory was right, some of the data we had collected for our experiment could make us millionaires.
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