Magnificent Delusions (24 page)

O
N DECEMBER
7, 1970, Pakistan held its first general elections since its independence in 1947. With dozens of political parties in the fray, Yahya and his fellow generals had hoped for a fragmented
result. The military had even worked behind the scenes to ensure “that the Constituent Assembly is so fragmented as to render impossible the drafting of a constitution.”
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Further, the military regime had tried to safeguard Pakistan's identity as an Islamic ideological state before allowing the people to vote. Propaganda through state-controlled media and changes in academic curriculum would forestall elected politicians' attempts to alter Pakistan's orientation fundamentally.
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Official media had projected the year-long election campaign, which officially began on January 1, as a battle between Islam and socialism.
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As a result, Islamist vigilantes violently confronted their secular rivals on university campuses and in trade unions. Yahya's minister for information, Major General Sher Ali Khan, used a journalists' strike in April-May as an excuse to purge state and privately owned media of leftists and secularists. Cadres from the Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, then replaced the purged journalists.

The well-funded Islamists confronted Bhutto's PPP in West Pakistan and the Awami League in the eastern wing. Judging by their visibility in the media, the Islamists appeared quite powerful. Their attacks on the PPP focused on the “un-Islamic lifestyle” of the party's popular leader and stooped so low as to allege that Bhutto's mother had been a Hindu. Further, the Awami League was accused of close ties with Bengali Hindus and was alleged to be funded by India.

But the ideological debates that Pakistan's military orchestrated attracted attention only in garrison towns and from religiously conservative urban intellectuals. For the rural masses bread-and-butter issues were more important. Here, the Awami League's promise of greater power for impoverished Bengalis and Bhutto's calls for income redistribution had tremendous advantage.

The Awami League got a further boost when a major cyclone followed by a tidal wave struck East Pakistan on November 12, less than a month before the election. Images of impoverished Bengalis uprooted from their homes in coastal areas served as a reminder of West Pakistan's neglect of the eastern wing. The US government worried about the tragedy's effect on Yahya's position, as Pakistan's govern
ment lacked the capacity to manage the situation. But Nixon worried that publicly giving too much aid or help may embarrass Yahya.

For rescue operations the United States provided six helicopters and fifty sixteen-foot motor launches, each with a carrying capacity of two tons, and $50 million in aid under various heads. Pakistan's request for fifty thousand tons of wheat was also immediately approved, though the staple food in East Pakistan was rice. Kissinger told Nixon that the United States had to maintain a subtle posture in providing disaster relief for political reasons as well as humanitarian ones. “The east-west issue within Pakistan is an extremely delicate one for President Yahya, especially in this election period,” he explained. “A highly visible appearance that the U.S. was injecting its independent management would carry the implication that President Yahya's government in West Pakistan could not or would not effectively manage this situation in East Pakistan.”
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But the impression the US government sought to eschew could not be avoided. Bengalis concluded that they could not trust West Pakistani leaders or their Bengali cohorts any longer. On Election Day they overwhelmingly voted for the Awami League.

When the votes were counted, Yahya regime's expectations of a truncated Parliament were not fulfilled. The Awami League had won more than 72 percent of the popular vote in East Pakistan and ended up with 160 seats out of the 300 contested seats. Its uncontested winning of 7 seats reserved for women gave it a total of 167 seats in the 313-member National Assembly. Only two National Assembly seats from East Pakistan went to non-Awami League members. In the provincial assembly election ten days later, the Awami League secured 89 percent of the votes and won 288 out of 300 seats in East Pakistan.

In West Pakistan, Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) won 81 out of 138 seats for the National Assembly, mainly in the provinces of Sindh and Punjab, and the addition of 4 seats reserved for women would take its tally up to 85. Its share of the popular vote, however, was 38.89 percent. Balochistan and the Northwest Frontier Province (since renamed Khyber-Pushtoonkhwa) gave a plurality to the Pashtun nationalist National Awami Party (NAP). The orthodox Jamiat
Ulema Islam (JUI), which had aligned itself with the left-wing parties instead of other Islamists, came in second in those two provinces. The conservative parties that the military covertly supported had fared poorly.
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The election results meant that Yahya and the military would not have a smooth ride when steering the country toward a constitution of their choice. Yahya had agreed with Nixon that Pakistan needed the steadying hand of a strong president. As he had told Nixon, he was skeptical about parliamentary democracy in a country with thirty-five parties because, he claimed, parliamentary democracy worked best in a two-party system. Although Pakistan now had two major parties, that did not augur well for Yahya or the military's vision for the country, as neither of the two major parties were likely to yield their mandate to a strong presidency.

The Americans were also not happy with the outcome. They had neither predicted nor prepared for it, and now they had to deal with a complex political situation. Even if Yahya remained in charge, he could not ignore Mujib and Bhutto, who had emerged as popular leaders of Pakistan's two wings. The State Department's director of intelligence and research, Ray Cline, interpreted the election results for the US government the very next day in a report titled, “Pakistan: Election Results Suggest Fresh Problems.”
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“The Awami League's sweep, which may give it an absolute majority in the forthcoming Constituent Assembly,” Cline's report said, “and the surprising victory of the PPP have called into question almost all of the speculations about the post-election period which preceded December 7.” These speculations had projected a combination between the Awami League and West Pakistani centrists, which might have resulted in “needed accommodation between Pakistan's two wings on the key issue of provincial autonomy.” But the prospect of accommodation had become more problematic.

The Awami League would now be tempted to press for “more autonomy than the West Pakistanis are prepared to accept,” Cline cautioned. Even if Mujib understood the dangers of asking for too much, he might not be able to restrain his followers. “The emergence of Bhutto as a figure of substantial prominence” had also com
plicated the situation. According to Cline's assessment, Bhutto's radical appeals were “anathema to the present establishment, and thus may raise fresh doubts in the minds of the regime as to the value of popular government.”

Although Bhutto had avoided open criticism of the Awami League's demands for autonomy, Cline thought that “his proclivities” reflected preference for a strong center. Bhutto was “unlikely to join forces with Sheikh Mujib” on the issue of autonomy, but that would make Yahya the key to resolving any critical questions. Yahya knew he would have to work with Mujib, Cline explained, but he had supposed that “the present West Pakistani ruling elite would be well-represented” in the new legislature. Now, however, there were very few centrists who could “work with and control the Awami League leader and thus protect West Pakistani interests.”

Before holding elections Yahya had insisted that the new Constituent Assembly must complete its work on a constitution within 120 days and that Yahya would have to approve the proposed constitution. Given the election results, Cline presciently observed that ending martial law and establishing a popular civilian government had become less certain. Further, he anticipated dire consequences if the future constitution did not include the Awami League's vision of adequate autonomy. “The Bengali reaction could well be secession,” he warned.

Cline also spoke of the election's foreign affairs implications. Both the PPP and the Awami League favored balancing relations with the United States, the USSR, and China. Both also called for Pakistan's withdrawal from SEATO and CENTO. “Bhutto, however, has made much of Pakistan's relations with China,” wrote the CIA veteran, adding, “There is every reason to conclude that, private disclaimers to the contrary notwithstanding, he would favor China at the expense of the United States.”

He also noted that Mujib's and Bhutto's views diverged significantly in relation to the subcontinent. The Awami League leader favored decreasing tension and resuming trade with India. But in Cline's assessment, “Bhutto, reflecting both his own xenophobia and popular West Pakistani sentiment (including that of the military),
urges a hard line toward India, frequently couched in inflammatory and irresponsible language.”
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With all this in mind, American diplomats watched cautiously as Bhutto and Mujib started negotiating the new constitution. These negotiations dragged on for almost two months and remained inconclusive. In February 1971 Yahya belatedly scheduled the session of the Constituent Assembly for March 3 in Dhaka, the capital of East Pakistan, but later postponed it indefinitely, ostensibly on Bhutto's demand. The West Pakistani leader saw no point in attending the Assembly meeting until his party and the Awami League had agreed on the basic principles of the constitution. Bhutto and Yahya had most likely acted in concert, because no one in relatively privileged West Pakistan was prepared to cede power completely to the Bengali majority.
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Kissinger foresaw the fresh crisis emerging in Pakistan and told Nixon that it could have far-reaching implications for US interests in South Asia. He recognized that the main issue was the power relationship between East and West Pakistan, and he lamented that Mujib and Bhutto had failed to forge a consensus. But he saw the issue primarily from Yahya's perspective. “Yahya remains committed to turning his military government over to the civilian politicians,” Kissinger wrote, adding that Yahya was not willing to “preside over the splitting of Pakistan.”

The odds were increasing against the emergence of “a constitution acceptable to each of the major parties”—Mujib, Bhutto, and Yahya. Mujib was planning to “stick with his demands for the virtual autonomy of East Pakistan and if he does not get his way—which is very likely—to declare East Pakistan's independence.” The Bengali leader had approached “U.S. and other diplomats to play a peacemaking role to avoid an East-West civil war if he does not get his way and makes a unilateral declaration of independence.” The United States was being forced “to walk a very narrow tightrope.”
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Kissinger noted that although the United States was not the controlling factor in the emerging situation, all major actors in Pakistan's unfolding drama were seeking its influence. “We do have some important interests, and our posture at this juncture is critical to how
these interests will be protected in the future,” he pointed out. The US position had been to support the unity of Pakistan, as the United States had been forced to state that position in response to some Pakistani politicians' charges that the United States was plotting East Pakistani secession.

Kissinger wanted Nixon to determine American policy when faced with a declaration of East Pakistani independence. He wondered whether the United States should adopt a more neutral stance toward Mujib, who was “basically friendly toward the U.S.” This would hedge against the day the United States might have to deal with an independent East Pakistan.

The national security adviser realized that “there is very little material left in the fabric of the unity of Pakistan.” But that reality was inconvenient because in his view, “the division of Pakistan would not serve U.S. interests.”
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He wanted to start contingency planning in order to protect US interests in the face of the growing possibility that East and West Pakistan would split. The worst-case scenario for the United States could be the emergence of two countries out of Pakistan, both opposing American interests. India was already closer to the Soviet Union than to the United States; the loss of Pakistan would mean that the Americans had lost all of South Asia.

While Kissinger sought Nixon's direction for dealing with the changing circumstances in East Pakistan, Ambassador Farland traveled to Dhaka and met Mujib. The Awami League leader was unwilling to join Yahya and his cronies in blaming Bhutto exclusively for the delay in convening the newly elected Parliament. Instead, he held the army responsible for trying to manipulate the situation to stay in power. “Those very people who had supported Ayub,” he told Farland, had brought about the current situation.

According to Mujib, Bhutto's hard line toward East Pakistan was the result of “the help and leadership of certain West Pakistani military officers.” Bhutto favored “excessive expenditures on military preparedness,” precisely because of his ties to a section of the Pakistani military. He predicted that “the life struggle of Bangladesh would begin” when Bhutto called off all talks and the Constituent Assembly failed to meet because Yahya refused to summon it.

During his meeting with the US ambassador, Mujib made it clear that the eclipse of West Pakistani military leadership would not threaten US interests. He also denigrated “Bhutto's love for Communist China and his intransigent position vis-à-vis India,” Farland reported. Mujib “reflected at length upon his anti-communist position and the dangers that China portended to the area.” But what distinguished Mujib from West Pakistanis who had dealt with the United States since Pakistan's independence was his attitude toward India; he declared that Bangladesh needed to reestablish good relations with India and “reopen the historic trade routes in the area.”