Lethal Trajectories (12 page)

OVERVIEW:

The following information was compiled from data provided from our third-generation climate-change satellites. Using International Earth Information Systems (IEIS) guidelines, the satellites were designed to measure several climate-centric components, including carbon and methane levels, global temperatures, gravitationally measured ice-sheet densities, glacial ice-melt rates, hydrologic patterns and ocean wide acidity levels, health of oceanic ecosystems, droughts, freshwater levels, agricultural and desertification trends, rain forest and carbon sink absorption rates, eco-pollution patterns and structural mechanisms, and a host of other data.

The data is currently being fed into the IEIS climate-change clearinghouse in Houston. It will be cross-checked and disseminated to the global scientific community for review and commentary.

OBSERVATIONS:

The results are startling and greatly exceed virtually all previous worst-case-scenario projections. The overall conclusion is that Earth is far sicker than anyone had previously imagined. Key findings include:

Methane Time-Bombs:
An enormous amount of methane is being released into the atmosphere daily. With 21 times the heat-retaining capacity of CO
₂
, it is accelerating the greenhouse gas (GHG) atmospheric build-ups beyond all levels previously projected in our computer models. Three key sources of methane build-ups are:

Sub-sea permafrost melts in the Arctic Ocean that are oozing out enormous amounts of methane-locked ice crystals called methane hydrates,

Siberian Shelf permafrost melts covering an area the size of France, Spain, and Germany combined, and

North American permafrost tundra melts that far exceed earlier projections and are growing in intensity as Earth becomes warmer.

Antarctic Ice Melts:
While the disintegration of major ice shelves has been observed for years, the recent early stage Larsen C disintegration, combined with accelerated disintegration rates of other ice shelves, is alarming. (Ice shelves resting on water act like dams that prevent the ice sheets, which rest on land, from flowing into the sea. Once the shelves are gone, there is nothing to prevent the massive Antarctic ice sheets from flowing directly into the water and melting, causing global sea levels to rise.) As ice-flow rates into the sea increase, coastal areas and low-lying islands will be at increasing risk from rising sea levels.

Further, Antarctic ice-sheet density levels are diminishing at far greater rates than previously recorded. The East Antarctic ice sheet regions, which were kept colder by depleted ozone levels (man-made), are now starting to heat up. The loss of ice-sheet density could impact water vapor levels and hydrologic patterns, but exact projections will not be available for some time.

Arctic and Polar Regions:
The summer Arctic ice is now all but gone, and the density of old ice is thinning dramatically. With less of a white-ice surface to reflect the sun’s solar energy (the albedo effect), more and more heat and CO
₂
is being absorbed by the oceans. Ocean acidity levels are rising beyond any previous projections, and a negative feedback loop is clearly in force. (This particular feedback loop suggests that reduced solar reflectivity and higher temperatures are reducing ice surfaces; less ice means that more heat and CO
₂
are retained in the oceans and atmosphere. More heat means less ice, and less ice means more heat in this deadly, self-perpetuating loop.)

Greenland and Glacial Ice Melts:
The rate of ice melts and underwater melting—which, in effect, lubricates and accelerates the movement of glacial ice toward the sea—has exceeded all previous ice density and movement levels. Coupled with the Antarctic ice melts, it will accelerate the rise in sea levels. Glacial ice-melt rates are also occurring at higher altitudes, and the Himalayan ice-melt rates will cause even greater water problems—droughts and floods—for large sectors of the world’s population.

Hydrologic Systems:
The buildup in ocean acidity levels is pervasive, and the ocean’s ability to absorb CO
₂
has been compromised. Coral systems—the lifeblood of oceanic sea life—have become unhealthy and are withering at unforeseen rates. Higher temperatures and increased levels of moisture have radicalized weather patterns, causing a combination of widespread droughts, flooding, and other extremes. Aquifer density levels are decreasing at an alarming rate, and hydrologic ocean patterns are changing. Further data is required to ascertain the long-term threats.

Greenhouse Gas Intensification:
The true CO
₂
level in 2017 was slightly over 400 ppm (parts per million), but far greater if expressed as a ppm
equivalent.
The CO
₂
equivalent value takes into account other greenhouse gases such as methane—21 times more potent than CO
₂
. The current CO
₂
equivalent growth rate per annum of 3–4 ppm is roughly twice the rate it was twenty years ago. With heavier than anticipated releases of methane, the projected ppm equivalent level can be expected to reach a range of 500–600 ppm in 2050 and increase temperatures by 2.8–3.3 centigrade or more. This far exceeds Kyoto targets of 450 ppm and is well beyond the 350 ppm level many believe is required to sustain life as we know it.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

We are on a catastrophic trajectory that will gravely impact our way of life and ability to sustain a population projected to grow to nine billion people by 2050. The impacts will be increasingly felt from 2020—most noticeably in the areas of rising sea levels, increasing droughts and desertification with concomitant crop failures, altered weather patterns—such as we are now seeing regularly with the Polar Vortex phenomenon—and degradation of the ocean’s food-producing capacity.

The negative feedback loops now in play will grow and intensify as one feedback loop interacts with another. The ecological chain reaction and multiplier effect is not fully understood at this time, and it is possible the greenhouse-gas buildup could far exceed even our revised estimates. While the trajectory lines are ominous and Earth’s ability to self-regulate severely compromised, a crash effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may produce a better outcome in the future. Short-term trends will worsen, however, regardless of efforts made.

Our recommendation is to develop a strategy of aggressive action to slow the rate of deterioration. It will require a climate-change and energy plan that exceeds anything ever before attempted in scope and intensity. The effort must be global with zero tolerance for gaming the system. We sink or swim together—Period.

In addition to developing aggressive
mitigation
strategies to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, we must also develop global
adaptation
strategies to lessen the inevitable impacts. Adaptation strategies should systematically address a) coastal areas and low-lying islands, b) freshwater and agricultural shortages, c) disease transmission and economic disruption due to severe weather patterns, and d) international security issues attendant to massive population shifts and the spread of regional wars associated with food and water shortages.

In summary, the scientific evidence is now incontrovertible. The damage is done, and our best hope now rests on robust global strategies of mitigation and adaptation. It will be a race against time to salvage what we still can.

Peter Canton

Secretary, Dept. of ETCC

C
layton McCarty felt uneasy as he left his office for the short walk to the Situation Room. The uncomfortable, sultry weather with its strong threat of a storm mirrored, he thought, the political climate in Washington.

Serving as acting president without the commensurate authority of the presidency was proving awkward. Burkmeister had never officially certified himself as “incapacitated and unable to perform the duties of the presidency,” and it left a mushy chain of command. While the task was difficult, Clayton had long ago adopted a credo of don’t complain, don’t explain, just do it, and it was with this in mind that he set aside his anxieties and strode confidently into the Situation Room.

“Good morning, everyone, and thanks much for being here,” he said. “I talked to the president last night, and he sends his greetings. He said he was feeling better and hopes to get out toward the end of the week. He’s proud of the work you’ve done in his absence and asked that the SWAT team continue its post-Chunxiao planning.”

“Mr. Vice President,” asked Secretary of Defense Thurmond Thompson, “are we authorized today to make decisions in the president’s absence?”

“In a fashion, Thurmond; the media has been working the Chunxiao story 24/7 and is vocal about what they consider to be White House inaction. The president is concerned and wants us to recommend a course of action, run it by him, and then issue a statement following this meeting. He has asked me to oversee this exercise, so here’s what we’re going to do today: we’ll go around the room and hear from each of you, and then develop a short-term plan and statement that I’ll read later in the Rose Garden. If there aren’t any questions, I’ll ask you to start, Thurmond.”

“Thank you, Mr. Vice President,” replied Thompson, always one to enjoy center stage.

“For openers, the USS
Gerald Ford
carrier group has been redeployed to the East China Sea and will join other elements of the Seventh Fleet for high-visibility maneuvers near Taiwan in the coming days. Together with the Ronald Reagan carrier group, we’ll amass an enormous amount of firepower in a concentrated area. A marine brigade from San Diego will be airlifted to Guam within the next few days, and two air-force fighter squadrons will be redeployed there soon thereafter.”

Thompson continued, “I have also been in regular contact with our allies, and they’re developing their own support plans as we speak. The Brits have committed to sending at least one battalion of combat engineers, an elite Harrier V fighter-bomber squadron, and a number of naval vessels in support. All agree this is a situation we can’t let get out of hand. Our armed forces will remain at a DEFCON 4 alert status until further notified.”

“Thanks, Thurmond, good report,” McCarty said, directing his eyes to Secretary of State Elizabeth Cartright. “Elizabeth, what are you hearing from our allies and others?”

The tastefully dressed Secretary of State moved closer to the conference table, opened her leather file folder to her typed notes, and started her report.

“It’s no understatement to say that governments worldwide view the Chunxiao Incident as a grave threat to world peace. They’re worried about the possibility of war between two major countries and the ripple effect it will have on their relations with Japan and China. They’re also deeply concerned with the impact Chunxiao is having on the world oil markets. With two hostile navies in close proximity to each other in the East China Sea, it wouldn’t take much to set off the spark that ignites a war. The presence of the Seventh Fleet has certainly been a stabilizing influence, and I was glad to hear Secretary Thompson say the Gerald Ford carrier group will soon take position in that area.

“Japan continues to pressure us to take actions we are not prepared to take, and our conversations with them have become increasingly antagonistic. They’re asking us to help them find another 250,000 barrels of oil per day to replenish what they will ultimately lose from the Chunxiao field—something we can consider, but not an easy task given our own oil shortages.”

Looking at her notes, she continued, “Parenthetically, the Japanese admiral in charge of the naval vessels lost at Chunxiao has committed suicide. Our sources tell us Prime Minister Sato was furious with him, and his suicide was a direct result of what happened. It seems obvious that the incident was the work of this rogue admiral and not the accident the Japanese claimed it was, but it most certainly was not sanctioned by the Japanese government; they have no desire for a war with China.” This brought a collective sigh of relief. The inexplicable suddenly made sense.

“China has been strangely quiet, and our talks with them have been cordial. Both China and Japan will take their grievances to the United Nations in the next few weeks, and we expect the real lobbying effort for our support will come at that time.” A short discussion followed regarding what America’s position should be. McCarty finally tabled the discussion, as the decision could wait for the return of the president.

“Our allies are behind our wait-and-see approach,” Cartright continued, “and they agree that sanctions or anything resembling trade restrictions should not be on the table at this time. On another note, we’re getting some confusing signals from Saudi Arabia, and know that OPEC is concerned about the destabilization Chunxiao is causing in the oil markets. Our embassies are on special alert in China, Japan, and the Middle East.” The latter evoked a spirited discussion about concerns in the Middle East, which McCarty again reined in.