Correlated (12 page)

35%
of people have been involved in student government.

But among those who have been on the radio,
48%
have been involved in student government.

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19%
of people regularly tweet on Twitter.

But among those who have been on the radio,
31%
regularly tweet on Twitter.

----------------

13%
of people have testified in court.

But among those who have been on the radio,
24%
have testified in court.

You're extremely likely to have been on the radio if you both:

• have attended a wedding of a couple whom you didn't believe would last
  
• are a teacher
  

People who have been on the radio are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• have been pantsed in public
  
• prefer soft pillowcases
  
• be able to recognize the quadratic formula if they saw it
  

32%
of people do the Electric Slide at wedding receptions.

But among those who aren't registered organ donors, only
19%
do the Electric Slide at wedding receptions.

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24%
of people say that white bread is their favorite kind of bread.

But among those who aren't registered organ donors,
35%
say that white bread is their favorite kind of bread.

----------------

62%
of people want to be cremated.

But among those who aren't registered organ donors, only
51%
want to be cremated.

You're extremely likely to not be a registered organ donor if you both:

• have never smoked marijuana
  
• never leave tips in tip jars
  

People who aren't registered organ donors are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• say they'd rather find out they have a long-lost sister than a long-lost brother
  
• like super-cheesy pickup lines
  
• prefer Reese's Pieces to M&M's
  

68%
of people would accept a friend's offer to let them hold a pet rat.

But among those who know how to make origami,
81%
would accept a friend's offer to let them hold a pet rat.

----------------

63%
of people prefer tropical fruits to tropical climates.

But among those who know how to make origami,
75%
prefer tropical fruits to tropical climates.

----------------

40%
of people say they don't have super-fast Internet connections.

But among those who know how to make origami,
49%
say they don't have super-fast Internet connections.

You're extremely likely to know how to make origami if you both:

• have attempted to learn sign language
  
• are interested in geology
  

People who know how to make origami are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• have extraordinary-sounding hiccups
  
• be surfers
  
• prefer a fine-mist shower stream rather than a high-pressure stream
  

73%
of people know the difference between a stock and a bond.

But among those who prefer pleated pant fronts,
86%
know the difference between a stock and a bond.

----------------

72%
of people like meat loaf dinners.

But among those who prefer pleated pant fronts,
85%
like meat loaf dinners.

----------------

41%
of people would rather get a congratulatory stamp than a sticker.

But among those who prefer pleated pant fronts,
53%
would rather get a congratulatory stamp than a sticker.

You're extremely likely to prefer pleated pant fronts if you both:

• don't get your hair cut at a salon
  
• believe in God
  

People who prefer pleated pant fronts are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• say they are faster than average readers
  
• be good at remembering the words to songs
  
• be right-handed
  

62%
of people can drive stick shift.

But among those with children,
84%
can drive stick shift.

----------------

47%
of people delete or move their emails after they've read them.

But among those with children,
65%
delete or move their emails after they've read them.

----------------

34%
of people own an SLR camera.

But among those with children,
51%
own an SLR camera.

You're extremely likely to be a parent if you both:

• have ridden a motorcycle
  
• think a loud baby is more tolerable than a loud dog
  

People with children are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• have been on a swim team
  
• be willing to use a bidet
  
• prefer Coke over Pepsi
  

43%
of people are fans of Jim Carrey.

But among those who use the same password for pretty much everything,
55%
are fans of Jim Carrey.

----------------

38%
of people would agree to staff a kissing booth to raise funds for their favorite charity.

But among those who use the same password for pretty much everything,
49%
would agree to staff a kissing booth to raise funds for their favorite charity.

----------------

61%
of people say they remain objective and unbiased, even if it means potentially hurting someone's feelings.

But among those who use the same password for pretty much everything, only
51%
say they remain objective and unbiased, even if it means potentially hurting someone's feelings.

You're extremely likely to use the same password for pretty much everything if you both:

• are more familiar with Play-Doh than Plato
  
• don't own an iPad or other tablet
  

People who use the same password for pretty much everything are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• love
  A Christmas Story
  
• think the best way to respond to the Westboro Baptist Church's provocations is to ignore them, rather than counterprotest
  
• be blunt
  

67%
of people like detective fiction.

But among those who dine out frequently,
78%
like detective fiction.

----------------

37%
of people are not very ticklish.

But among those who dine out frequently,
47%
are not very ticklish.

----------------

48%
of people prefer a cologne/perfume that evokes autumn.

But among those who dine out frequently,
57%
prefer a cologne/perfume that evokes autumn.

You're extremely likely to dine out frequently if you both:

• aren't bothered when different foods are touching on your plate
  
• have an American Express or Discover credit card
  

People who dine out frequently are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• be lactose intolerant
  
• rather read the book than listen to the audiobook
  
• use shoe polish
  

Whenever you poll a group of people, there's always a chance that what seems like a significant result is actually just a matter of chance. For instance, if you flip a fair coin 100 times, it's highly unlikely that it would land on either heads or tails 61 or more times out of 100. In fact, there's only about a 5% chance of that happening. And so, we can say with 95% confidence (see page 19) that a fair coin will land on heads between 40 and 60 times in 100 flips.

Now suppose you're trying to determine whether a coin is fair and it lands on heads 61 times out of a hundred. You might conclude that it's biased toward heads.

But a 5% chance means that in 1 in 20 attempts, you should indeed expect to land on one side 61 or more times.

Thus the more times you conduct your coin-flipping experiment, the more likely it is that you will achieve what appears to be a significant result by pure chance.

Similarly, suppose you have data from hundreds of poll questions, and you compare the results of one poll to the results of all the other polls to see if any correlations exist. The more comparisons you make, the more likely it will be that an apparent correlation will occur by pure chance.

61%
of people say they have a low energy level.

But among those who prefer Pepsi over Coke,
75%
say they have a low energy level.

----------------

47%
of people don't feel comfortable opening their eyes underwater.

But among those who prefer Pepsi over Coke,
59%
don't feel comfortable opening their eyes underwater.

----------------

19%
of people prefer powdered laundry detergent.

But among those who prefer Pepsi over Coke, only
8%
prefer powdered laundry detergent.

You're extremely likely to prefer Pepsi over Coke if you both:

• are closer to lower class than upper class
  
• are good at keeping a straight face when you're pulling someone's leg
  

People who prefer Pepsi over Coke are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• like techno music
  
• think Adam and Eve had belly buttons
  
• prefer crushed iced to cubed ice
  

28%
of people would be willing to have all memories from the past year wiped out in exchange for $500,000.

But among pessimists,
44%
would be willing to have all memories from the past year wiped out in exchange for $500,000.

----------------

56%
of people show their teeth when they smile for photos.

But among pessimists, only
42%
show their teeth when they smile for photos.

----------------

20%
of people have never been bitten by an animal.

But among pessimists,
33%
have never been bitten by an animal.

You're extremely likely to be a pessimist if you both:

• think children age you
  
• think the song title “Sometimes Love Just Ain't Enough” more closely represents your view than “All You Need Is Love”
  

Pessimists are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• be interested in visiting the Salt and Pepper Shaker Museum in Gatlinburg, Tennessee
  
• want to take a martial arts class
  
• prefer scooped ice cream over soft serve
  

18%
of people have food allergies.

But among those who are allergic to pet dander,
36%
have food allergies.

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27%
of people think it should be legal for two siblings to marry if they intend to not have children.

But among those who are allergic to pet dander, only
13%
think it should be legal for two siblings to marry if they intend to not have children.

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43%
of people occasionally use Craigslist.

But among those who are allergic to pet dander,
57%
occasionally use Craigslist.

You're extremely likely to be allergic to pet dander if you both:

• regularly use ChapStick or other lip balm
  
• prefer to be photographed from your left side
  

People who are allergic to pet dander are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:

• say they'd rather listen to the audiobook than read the book
  
• eat their chocolate bunnies butt-first
  
• know how to make origami