Winter Storm (33 page)

“So
we’ve heard on the BBC. What can you tell me?”

“The
situation is still not clear, but our man in the Kremlin got through this
morning. There’s been an assassination attempt on Sergei Kirov.”

“My
god! Did he survive??”

“We
don’t know. The NKVD are all over the Kremlin grounds, and there was apparently
fighting between those troops and Kirov’s Kremlin Guard. The General Secretary
was to have given a speech to the nation via radio last night, and that was
cancelled. The government is now evacuating the city and moving to Leningrad,
and most of the western suburbs are on fire. My people there tell me they think
it was deliberate. This may be a coup attempt, underway even as we speak.”

“A coup?
Who could mount such a threat to Sergei Kirov? One of the Generals? Surely not
Zhukov.”

“We
don’t know yet, but I have my suspicions. I’ll get you more information soon,
but this is all in flux now.”

“And
Volkov?”

“He
paid a visit to the Wolf’s Lair a few weeks ago, and then flew to Mongolia to sit
with the Japanese. We have no hard intelligence on that yet, but we were able
to track his movements afterwards. He’s returned to Orenburg, and there have
been some unusual fleet deployments in the last few days.”

“Explain.”

“He’s
pulled all his airships out of the Caucasus. We thought he was thinking to use
them to support his cross Volga operation, but they were ordered to Astrakhan,
and now they moved up to Uralsk.”

“Could
he be planning an offensive on the upper Volga now?”

“No
significant ground movement there,” said Tyrenkov. “No sir, but the whole of
his 22nd Air Mobile is on the move. He calls them the 1st Guards now. Units he
had in the cross Volga operation pulled out yesterday. Something is going on,
and I have my best people on it.”

“Very
well… If he moves any of those airships east, implement Plan Seven. Is there
any buildup on the Ob River Line?”

“No
sir, all is quiet there, we still have three full divisions manning the
fortifications.”

“The 78th
is still at Ilanskiy?”

“Yes
sir.”

“Get
word to General Kalinin. He is to keep a Ready Brigade on the Trans-Siberian
line for immediate deployment west to Ilanskiy in the event of any trouble, and
troops from the Ob line should be ready to move east. We are in the Laptev
Strait, still heading east. Since you are in the East Siberian Sea, take the
ship ahead and relay ice conditions to our navigator. Scout through the Chukchi
Sea and Bering Strait. Then wait for us at Big Diomede Island. One last thing.
How is my brother?”

“Restless,
but slowly adjusting to the new realities here.”

“Any
problems?”

“No
sir. Do you wish to speak with him? The channel is secure. We’re using the
equipment you gave us.”

“Very
good. Put him on. It’s time I give him a little briefing.”

Karpov
explained their situation to his younger self, heard his
complaints, the impatience in his voice, and remembered being that man. “You
will soon be in the thick of things,” he promised again. Come December, we will
have much to plan and do together. In the meantime, I’ve reached an
accommodation with our Navigator.”

“Be
careful with him,” said the younger brother. “He’s a slave to his history.”

“We’ll
talk about that later. For now, I want you to know we may not be fully
stabilized in this time. We could vanish again. If that happens I want you to
post a detachment with a radio set on Big Diomede Island. Then move south into
the Bering Sea and discover what the Japanese are up to in the Aleutians. Be patient.
If we do vanish, we don’t know how much time could pass before we reappear,
but we’ll return. Believe in that.”

“I will
wait for you, Brother.”

“Good
to hear you call me that. Oh… One other thing. Tyrenkov thinks Ivan Volkov may
be up to something. Keep your ear to the ground on that matter. Your primary
mission as Fleet Admiral is the safety and security of the men and ships you
command, but even more, the security of our base and headquarters at Ilanskiy.
I’ll tell you more when we meet again, but stay alert! I’ll hope to hear from
you on what the Japanese are up to soon.”

*

Th
e Siberian freighter
Uritskii
, operated with
registration UOAX. It was built in 1929 by Ordzhonikidze Shipyard #189, the
Baltic Shipbuilding & Engineering Works in Leningrad. It was an ISKRA-class
cargo ship of 2513 GRT, sold to the Siberian Free State in 1934. As Fedorov
took note of that, an odd sense of
déjà vu
came to him again, not for
anything he personally experienced, but with the thought that here again was
one of those tiny threads in the tapestry that seemed to bear the same color as
in the history he knew. That evening he went to Karpov about it, wondering what
he might know.

“Do you
realize the Siberian freighter
Uritskii
, is presently operating on the
U.S. to far east trade lanes?”

“
Uritskii?
”
said Karpov. “Can’t say as I know anything much about it. What is the problem?”

“It was
on that northern trade route, near the Aleutians, and spotted the
Kido Butai
en route to Pearl Harbor.”

“It
spotted a Japanese ship?”

“Japanese
ships, sir, 22 of them, excluding the submarines and supply ships. The
Kido
Butai
is the name the Japanese gave to their mobile carrier strike force.
That freighter was under Soviet registry in the history I know, and it was the
only ship to spot the Japanese fleet prior to the attack. It was allowed to
steam quietly off when the Japanese identified it as a Russian ship, as neither
side wanted trouble with the other.”

“You
mean to say that the Russians knew Pearl Harbor was going to be attacked and
yet they did not warn the Americans?”

“Correct.
Historians presume Stalin may have known more about the attack than many
realize, and frankly, he needed the U.S. entry into the war, just as Churchill
did. The Americans beat Japan with a third of their war effort, and of course
they were instrumental in beating the Germans on the Western front. Britain
could never have done that alone.”

“But
just remember,” said Karpov. “Eight of every ten dead German soldiers died in
Russia.”

“Oh, I
haven’t forgotten that, sir.”

“Why do
you bring up this freighter?”

“It
seemed an odd coincidence at first,” said Fedorov, “but then I realized you
ordered your airship to scout down as far as the Aleutians. That could be
dangerous. The Japanese fleet assembled in the Kuriles in late November before
making the approach to Pearl Harbor by that little used Northern route. If they
spot your airship….”

That
got Karpov’s attention. “What might they do, Fedorov?”

“It
would create both a diplomatic and military problem for them. They know you
have allied with the Soviet Union, and there has been a long watch on your
frontier with the Kwantung Army. If they choose to attack in the attempt to
preserve the security of their operation, that would be an act of war against
Siberia.”

“And if
they do nothing, as with that freighter you mentioned?”

“Then
they basically risk detection should your airship report the sighting.”

“As it
certainly would—but to me, no other ministry of my Government. The Siberian Air
Corps answers directly to me.”

“Yet
your other self is already on
Tunguska
, and so to whom would they
report? Wouldn’t they just inform the Captain and leave it at that?”

“He has
instructions to inform me, and my intelligence chief would certainly do so as
well.”

“So the
hot potato would be in your lap? What would you do sir, if I may ask?”

“That
is what we have yet to discuss.”

“Well,
assuming your intention is to persuade Japan to cede back occupied territories
in Siberia, that sighting would give you a little leverage, but probably not
enough to get a deal with Japan.”

“I’ve
considered that,” said Karpov. “But let me ask you this—what if that force is
sighted early. Would the Japanese persist with their attack?”

“I
believe they would,” said Fedorov. “They had provisions in their attack plan
that would simply change the strike wave composition in the event they were
discovered. They would front load fighters in the first wave to deal with the
possibility the Americans would have fighters up waiting for them. The bombers
would then only be launched after the Japanese achieved air superiority. They
would be outnumbered. The Americans had around 200 fighters on the seven
airfields in Hawaii, but a great many were down for maintenance. I believe the
number was 37 percent. That said, the Japanese would still be outnumbered, as
they planned to launch 45 fighters in that first wave. Yet they had the
A6-Zero, a much better fighter than the Americans. I think they would have
eventually won, and pushed through to neutralize the fighter fields as
planned.”

“Why
wouldn’t they simply provide a heavy fighter escort for their strike planes and
attack as planned?”

“Because
of their mindset, sir. The fighter pilot was a bit of a free spirit, the
samurai of the skies, if you will. Their mindset and doctrine was to range
freely, untethered from the bombers, and seek out enemy fighters. In fact,
those were their orders. They were not there to escort and defend, but to
attack. The Japanese plan itself saw offensive operations as the way to defend.
They will attack, which is why your airship may be in some jeopardy.”

“You
see, Fedorov, this is why I need you! Your knowledge of the history is
essential here. To answer your question, I intend to contact the Japanese
Government and inform them that I am personally aware of their plan to attack
Pearl Harbor. I will tell them that if they persist with this plan,
particularly if British colonies in the far east are also attacked, I would
have no recourse but to declare war on Japan. They could avoid such a
declaration by returning our occupied provinces.”

“You
think they will agree to that?”

“Certainly
not, but it is at least a suitable diplomatic nicety. You said yourself that
this is both a military and diplomatic problem, and I’ve given it a good deal
of thought. You see, Stalin maintained a cautious neutrality with Japan, and
the Japanese even allowed American shipping into Vladivostok to support Russia.
Stalin didn’t want to see divisions tied down against the Japanese when he
needed them to fight the Germans. Much the same idea is in play here, but
things are different now. The long war with Volkov sees Siberia with a standing
army over three times what it was in the old history. I’ve sent Sergei Kirov
close to fifteen divisions, but that is only half my existing force on the
ground, and I can raise more. Not only that, I am promised new equipment from
the Soviet factories now relocating to Siberian territory. This means I will
have mechanized forces soon, and troops capable of posing a real threat to
Japan’s interests in China. They will have to see me as a serious factor. I can
back up any threat I make, both on the ground, and certainly at sea. They do
not realize that yet, as they think I have no more than a few old destroyers at
my command. When
Kirov
enters the Northern Pacific, all that changes.
Then the real game begins.”

Fedorov
smiled, nodding his head. “Kita No Kaze Kumori,” he said. ‘That was a Japanese
wind code phrase that roughly translates ‘north wind cloudy,’ and that was code
for the status of relations between Japan and Russia, and in this instance,
with you. It seems we have a nice winter storm brewing in the Pacific if you
take this line, Captain.”

“Are
you advising me not to do so?”

“No, I
haven’t said that. Now that I know what you intend, I think it is a carefully
weighed cart of apples. But I also think it will probably not produce the
results you expect. Oh, the Japanese may make every outward appearance of
accommodating you. They may even go so far as to open negotiations on what they
will call the disputed territories. I think they might offer you something,
appease you, and then they would simply have to hem and haw about it until they
completed their attack. After that, you get nothing, and the Kwangtung Army is
put on full alert, as is their navy. They would prefer to keep you neutral, but
they will not compromise their war plan to gain that neutrality. They have
bigger fish to fry.”

“They
are the ones who end up in the pan, Fedorov, and I can put them there much
sooner than they think. Their entire war plan depends on this
Kido Butai,
does it not? I can sink every last one of those carriers, and take all their naval
air power away from them in a single battle. Then what could they do?”

“The
Americans virtually did that to them at the Battle of Midway, sir. They
continued to fight for many years after. I spoke of the Japanese mindset
earlier. If anything, it is even going to be more determined, more entrenched,
because Japan has become a major power in the Pacific, right alongside the
United States. That is who they perceive as their real enemy now, America.”

Karpov
nodded. “Let me share a bit of intelligence with you,” he said. “My man
Tyrenkov informed me that Volkov flew east for a meeting with the Japanese in
Mongolia after his visit with Hitler. You and I both know he is aware of this
history, perhaps not with the detail and insight you have, but he knows all the
mistakes Japan made in this war. You were pointing them out to me earlier—their
failure to get the American fuel bunker and sub pens. Do you suppose Volkov has
briefed the Japanese on this? Could he be trying to influence the outcome of
this attack?”

“That
is very likely,” said Fedorov.

“So you
see, this changes things from our perspective. There is a demon on the other
side whispering in Hitler’s ear one day, and in Tojo’s the next.”

Fedorov
smiled. “Believe it or not, I’ve whispered in Sergei Kirov’s ear, and in
Churchill’s.”

“Precisely.
You know that intelligence wins this war. So does Volkov. So we have to
consider that the Japanese may be planning a much more devastating attack on
Pearl harbor if Volkov pointed out the shortcomings of their initial plan.
Suppose they do go after those fuel bunkers, and the American sub pens,
ignoring the battleships.”

“Oh,
they won’t ignore the battleships. They’ll have to get as many of those as they
can. But what you say does raise some fears.”

“Well,
how far back would that put the American war effort here—in the Pacific?”

“Certainly
months, possibly half a year. The fuel could be replaced. I told you the
Japanese were very remiss about soft naval targets. Remember what I said about
mindset. Battleships yes, oil tankers, no glory there.”

“Unless
Ivan Volkov gets his message into their heads,” said Karpov.

“I
suppose we would not know that until after the fact.”

“Correct,”
said Karpov flatly.

Something
in his tone put Fedorov on his guard. “You say that as if… Why as if you
planned to let them go ahead and make their attack to see what they might do.”

“That
thought has crossed my mind.”

Fedorov
gave him a strange look. “One minute you’re talking about destroying the
Kido
Butai,
and now you suggest we allow them to attack as planned? Just to see
what Volkov may have told them?”

“Oh,
no, I can find that out tomorrow if I wish. I could get on a secure line with Volkov
and squeeze it out of him. He’d like nothing more than to boast that he now has
Japan on a leash, and that I’d better look to my southern front, because the
Japanese are coming. In fact, he may be making some initial moves to coordinate
with the Japanese even now. I had some intelligence on unusual airship fleet
deployments. He knows that a winter storm is coming. His finger is in the wind
too, Fedorov. That’s why he’s been called the Prophet all these years.”