What Technology Wants (56 page)

144 “even
after
they read his paper”:
Walter Isaacson. (2007)
Einstein: His Life and Universe
. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 134.

144 “ten years or more”:
Walter Isaacson. (2009) In discussion with the author.

144 “appear the most determined of all”:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1978) “Independent Discovery in Science and Technology: A Closer Look at the Poisson Distribution.”
Social Studies of Science
, 8 (4), p. 526.

144
K-9
and
Turner & Hooch:
Sean Dwyer. (2007) “When Movies Come in Pairs: Examples of Hollywood Deja Vu.” Film Junk.
http://www.filmjunk.com/2007/03/07/when-movies-come-in-pairs-examples-of-hollywood-deja-vu/
.

145 a device called Toto:
Tad Friend. (1998, September 14) “Copy Cats.”
New Yorker
.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/1998/09/14/1998_09_14_051_TNY_LIBRY_000016335
.

146 simultaneous spontaneous creation:
(2009) “Harry Potter Influences and Analogues.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Harry_Potter_influences_and_analogues&oldid=330124521
.

148 Parallels in Blow Gun Culture:
Collage by the author from archival materials.

149 the exquisite timing of when to blow:
Robert L. Rands and Caroll L. Riley. (1958) “Diffusion and Discontinuous Distribution.”
American Anthropologist
, 60 (2), p. 282.

149 what we call abacus:
John Howland Rowe. (1966) “Diffusionism and Archaeology.”
American Antiquity
, 31 (3), p. 335.

149 “similar trajectories in various parts of the world”:
Laurie R. Godfrey and John R. Cole. (1979) “Biological Analogy, Diffusionism, and Archaeology.”
American Anthropologist,
New Series, 81 (1), p. 40.

151 grains before root crops:
Neil Roberts. (1998)
The Holocene: An Environmental History.
Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, p. 136.

151 an independent parallel discovery:
John Troeng. (1993)
Worldwide Chronology of Fifty-three Innovations
. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International.

151 help of a statistician:
Andrew Beyer. (2009) In discussion with the author.

152 “the telephone in the United States in 1876”:
Alfred L. Kroeber. (1948)
Anthropology
. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co., p. 364.

152 simultaneous inventions in history:
Robert K. Merton. (1973)
The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations
. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, p. 371.

153 are fueled by new technologies:
Dean Keith Simonton. (1979) “Multiple Discovery and Invention: Zeitgeist, Genius, or Chance?”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, 37 (9), p. 1614.

153 the then-obvious next step:
A. L. Kroeber. (1948)
Anthropology
. New York: Harcourt, Brace & Co.

154 “a disadvantage when it comes to new ones”:
(2008, February 9) “Of Internet Cafés and Power Cuts.”
Economist
, 386 (8566).

157 Super Sabre doing 1,215 kilometers per hour:
(2009) “Flight Airspeed Record.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Flight_airspeed_record&oldid=328492645
.

158 Speed Trend Curve:
Robert W. Prehoda. (1972) “Technological Forecasting and Space Exploration.”
An Introduction to Technological Forecasting
, ed. Joseph Paul Martino. London: Gordon and Breach, p. 43.

158 to the Moon quite soon after that:
Damien Broderick. (2002)
The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies
. New York: Forge, p. 35.

158 “Arthur C. Clarke had expected it to occur”:
Ibid.

159 start-up making the integrated chips:
John Markoff. (2005)
What the Dormouse Said: How the 60s Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer
. New York: Viking, p. 17.

160 Plotting Moore's Law:
Data from Gordon Moore. (1965) “The Future of Integrated Electronics.”
Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation,
ed. David C. Brock. Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 54.
https://www.chemheritage.org/pubs/moores_law/
; David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 70.

160 they would also become better:
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation, p. 99.

160 “drops as a result of the technology”:
Gordon E. Moore. (1995) “Lithography and the Future of Moore's Law.”
Proceedings of SPIE,
2437, p. 17.

161 “Moore's Law is really about economics”:
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation.

161 “to make it come to pass”:
Bob Schaller. (1996) “The Origin, Nature, and Implications of ‘Moore's Law.'”
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html
.

161 what you're allowed to believe:
University Video Corporation. (1992)
How Things Really Work: Two Inventors on Innovation, Gordon Bell and Carver Mead.
Stanford: University Video Corporation.

162 “it sort of drives itself”:
Bob Schaller. (1996) “The Origin, Nature, and Implications of ‘Moore's Law.'”
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/gray/moore_law.html
.

163 “while scaling of disk drives continues”:
Mark Kryder. (2009) In discussion with the author.

163 “not identical as might be expected”:
Lawrence G. Roberts. (2007) “Internet Trends.”
http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm
.

163 “sequence of the physical DNA”:
Rob Carlson. (2009) In discussion with the author.

164 Four Other Laws:
Data from National Renewable Energy Laboratory Energy Analysis Office. (2005) “Renewable Energy Cost Trends.” cost_curves_2005.ppt.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt
; Ed Grochowski. (2000) “IBM Areal Density Perspective: 43 Years of Technology Progress.”
http://www.pcguide.com/ref/hdd/histTrends-c.html
; Rob Carlson. (2009, September 9) “The Bio-Economist.”
Synthesis
.
http://www.synthesis.cc/2009/09/the-bio-economist.html
. Deloitte Center for the Edge. (2009) “The 2009 Shift Index: Measuring the Forces of Long-Term Change,” p. 29.
http://www.edgeperspectives.com/shiftindex.pdf
.

165 “operative even when people disbelieved it”:
Rob Carlson. (2009) In discussion with the author.

165 more than an industry road map:
Ray Kurzweil. (2005)
The Singularity Is Near.
New York: Viking.

165 Kurzweil's Law:
Data from Ray Kurzweil. (2005) “Moore's Law: The Fifth Paradigm.” The Singularity Is Near (January 28, 2010).
http://singularity.com/charts/page67.html
.

167 Doubling Times:
Data from Ray Kurzweil. (2005)
The Singularity Is Near.
New York: Viking; Eric S. Lander, Lauren M. Linton, et al. (2001) “Initial Sequencing and Analysis of the Human Genome.”
Nature
, 409 (6822).
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11237011
; Rik Blok. (2009) “Trends in Computing.”
http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~rikblok/ComputingTrends/
; Lawrence G. Roberts. (2007) “Internet Trends.”
http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm
; Mark Kryder. (2009) In discussion with the author; Robert V. Steele. (2006) “Laser Marketplace 2006: Diode Doldrums.”
Laser Focus World
, 42 (2).
http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/248128
.

169 which it passed in 1997:
David C. Brock and Gordon E. Moore. (2006) “Understanding Moore's Law.” Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation.

169 The Continuum of Kryder's Law:
Data from Clayton Christensen. (1997)
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 10.

170 need to “listen to the technology”:
(2001) “An Interview with Carver Mead.”
American Spectator
, 34 (7).
http://laputan.blogspot.com/2003_09_21_laputan_archive.html
.

170 Compound
S
Curves:
Data from Clayton Christensen. (1997)
The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail.
Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 40.

176 First Glimpse of the Picture Phone:
AT&T archival photograph via “Showcasing Technology at the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair.”
http://www.westland.net/ny64fair/map-docs/technolog
y.htm.

177 everyone recognized the vision:
(2010) “Videophone.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Videophone&oldid=340721504
.

177 “self-sustaining, ineluctable flow”:
Langdon Winner. (1977)
Autonomous Technology: Technics-Out-of-Control as a Theme in Political Thought
. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 46.

181 “much that can still be chosen”:
Ibid., p. 55.

182 “moments in the progressions”:
Ibid., p. 71.

182 The Triad of Biological Evolution:
Inspired by Stephen Jay Gould. (2002)
The Structure of Evolutionary Theory,
Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 1052; designed by the author.

183 The Triad of Technological Evolution:
Designed by the author.

184 North Korea at Night:
Paul Romer. (2009) “Rules Change: North vs. South Korea.” Charter Cities (January 28, 2010).
http://chartercities.org/blog/37/rules-change-north-vs-south-korea
.

185 that is sparse and minimal:
Paul Romer. (2009) “Paul Romer's Radical Idea: Charter Cities.” TEDGlobal, Oxford.

185 a matter of what it is designed for:
Robert Wright. (2000)
Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny
. New York: Pantheon.

187 technology is our “second self”:
Sherry Turkle. (1985)
The Second Self
. New York: Simon & Schuster.

188 “but we hope in technology”:
W. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves.
New York: Free Press, p. 246.

191 “tendency to make war impossible”:
Richard Rhodes. (1999)
Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World.
New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 66.

191 “will be beyond computation”:
Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky. (1998)
The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation.
New York: Villard, p. 274.

191 “war will become impossible”:
Ibid.

191 “a thousand world conventions”:
Ibid., p. 273.

191 “it will make war impossible”:
Havelock Ellis. (1926)
Impressions and Comments: Second Series 1914-1920
. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

191 “it will make war ridiculous”:
Ivan Narodny. (1912) “Marconi's Plans for the World.”
Technical World Magazine
(October).

191 “Good Will Toward Men a reality”:
Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky. (1998)
The Experts Speak: The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation.
New York: Villard, p. 105.

192 “good will towards men”:
Janna Quitney Anderson. (2006) “Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast.” Elon University/Pew Internet Project.
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/1870.xhtml
.

192 “will bring peace and harmony on Earth”:
Nikola Tesla. (1905) “The Transmission of Electrical Energy Without Wires as a Means for Furthering Peace.”
Electrical World and Engineer
.
http://www.tfcbooks.com/tesla/1905-01-07.htm
.

192 “the unfettered movement of ideas”:
David Nye. (2006)
Technology Matters: Questions to Live
W
ith.
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 151.

192 “dream of participatory democracy”:
Stephen Doheny-Farina. (1995) “The Glorious Revolution of 1971.”
CMC Magazine
, 2 (10).
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1995/oct/last.html
.

192 “seen as a sacrament”:
Joel Garreau. (2009) In discussion with the author.

192 “answers to solutions”:
W. Brian Arthur. (2009)
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves
. New York: Free Press, p. 153.

192 die in automobile accidents:
M. Peden, R. Scurfield, et al. (2004) “World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention.” World Health Organization.
http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/world_report/en/index.html
.

192 kills more people than cancer:
Melonie Heron, Donna L. Hoyert, et al. (2006) “Deaths, Final Data for 2006.” National Vital Statistics Reports, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 57 (14).

193 “round of technological innovation?”:
Theodore Roszak. (1972) “White Bread and Technological Appendages: I.”
Visions of Technology: A Century of Vital Debate About Machines, Systems, and the Human World
, ed. Richard Rhodes. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 308.