Ultimatum (64 page)

Yet if Wu was right, it was impossible to say what effect the loss of Taiwan would have on China’s position on the Carbon Plan. And if that was right, then the only thing he could predict was the effect it would have on America’s position. And that wouldn’t be good. If Taiwan was forcibly taken, it would result in a massive loss of U.S. credibility.

On the other hand, it would show China as an aggressor, and possibly make other leaders less likely to support them.

But the United States would look weak. And why ally yourself with a weakened power?

He was conscious of everyone waiting, watching him.

He looked at Enderlich. “Take me through your plans on Taiwan, Admiral.”

Enderlich nodded.

“That’s not a commitment, Admiral Enderlich. I just want to see them.”

~ * ~

Wednesday, October 26

Situation Room, The White House

Overnight, there had been a near miss between a Chinese and American plane over the South China Sea. Something had then malfunctioned on the American aircraft and the pilot had been forced to eject. The Chinese media portrayed it as some kind of victory. A Chinese government spokesman asserted that if hostilities broke out between China and the United States, they wouldn’t be restricted to East Asia.

In the Situation Room, the president puzzled over the wording. “What exactly does that mean, do you think?”

“Could be they’re meaning to attack us on Guam, sir,” said Enderlich. “It’s certainly within range for their aircraft.” He smiled. “Bring it on.”

“What about Hawaii?”

“Ditto. Alaska’s different, they could do better in Alaska, but what are they going to achieve? Blow up a bunch of icebergs.”

“What about the continental United States?”

Enderlich shook his head. “As far as we’re aware there’s no naval activity within range. It’s been a long-standing understanding that we would react strongly if the Chinese put vessels in a threatening posture. There’s only one way they could hit us here, Mr. President.”

“What about knocking out our satellites?”

“We’d take out theirs. And we have plenty of redundancy in the system. Ever since that little show they put on when they destroyed that satellite in ‘07, we’ve built that in. They’d have to knock out fifty.”

“What if they did?”

Enderlich shrugged. “They know the Shawcross doctrine. They take out enough satellites to blind us, we nuke ‘em.”

The president looked at the wording of the Chinese statement again. “So you’re saying there’s only one way?”

“That would be just as bad for them,” said Larry Olsen. “They maybe crazy, but they’re not that crazy.”

“One warhead lands here, they get a hundred back,” said Enderlich. “They know that.”

“What if a hundred land here?”

“They still get a hundred back.”

“They’re rational,” said Olsen. “They believe they can absorb more pain than us, which is true, but if the pain is total destruction, that doesn’t matter, does it?”

“Mutually assured destruction,” said Enderlich. “Kept us safe through the Cold War, and at their height the Soviets had five times the number of warheads the Chinese have got pointed at us now.”

“Let’s not make the mistake of fighting the last war,” said Alan Ball.

“Where’s the difference?”

“Different protagonists, Admiral. The Soviet Union had proven itself when the Cold War began. The Chinese haven’t. They’ve been trying to show they’re a military superpower for years. They’re looking for an opportunity.”

“And you think nuking us is the opportunity they want?” Olsen rolled his eyes. “Who’s going to be left alive on their side to see it, Alan?”

“They might not think we’d hit back.”

“They’d be wrong.”

“Sure. They could be. Hitler was. That’s why he invaded Poland, and look what happened to him.”

Enderlich looked at Ball with a smile that was almost condescending. “I thought you didn’t want to fight the last war, Dr. Ball.”

“I’m just saying—”

“Mr. President,” said Olsen. “They’re rational. Right? This is ridiculous.”

“They hit us,” said Enderlich, “that’s the ball game. We know it. They know it. This stuff about taking it out of East Asia, that’s talk.”

“All of this is talk,” said Olsen. “Look at this near miss. Why make a noise about it? Mr. President, they’re not
doing
anything. Why haven’t they attacked Taiwan already? You’re standing firm, that’s why.”

“They have to attack, though, don’t they?” said Benton. “They’re as mobilized as they can be without actually moving. They’ve crossed every limit. They can’t go back without losing face domestically.”

“That’s why I suggest we put the preemptive plan into action,” said Enderlich.

“I’m suggesting something else,” said Benton. “They need a way back. Let’s give them one. We’ve lost sight of what this is about. It’s not about Taiwan, it’s about carbon. Remember? They’ve forgotten it, just like everyone else has. It’s time to remind them.”

“What do you have in mind?” asked Alan Ball.

“We come out and say Taiwan’s open to negotiation. Larry, before you start, hear me out. I issue a public statement. I say we’re sure some kind of arrangement can work. We’re prepared to work with the Chinese government on that—but only after we get agreement on the Carbon Plan. There’s a linkage, right? You said it yourself. Well, I’m going to turn it around. Taiwan doesn’t lead to carbon—carbon leads to Taiwan.”

“You sure that’s a way out for them?” said Olsen skeptically.

“Why not? They can present it any way they like internally. They don’t even have to mention the Carbon Plan as part of the deal in their press. They can show it as us climbing down. I don’t care about that. I don’t mind giving them a cheap victory, if that’s what it’s going to take.”

Jay MacMahon shook his head. “So we’re betraying Taiwan?”

“Call it a betrayal if you like, Jay. I’d call it something else. Taiwan’s been in a situation of limbo since 1949. It’s an anomaly, this entity which we kind of do recognize but kind of don’t. The United States has never guaranteed it. At some point, this was always going to need to be resolved, and the fact that we’ve never committed to a Taiwanese state suggests that it was always going to be resolved by reversion to China. Well, if that was always going to happen, let’s get something back for it. I’ll talk to President Tan again. We’ll help in whatever way we can to smooth the transition. We can use Hong Kong as a model.”

“Yeah. That worked,” muttered Olsen. “Mr. President, this is a hell of a change in policy.”

“It’s a hell of a different world we’re living in, Larry. It’s a different one than the one I thought I was living in when I took office.”

There was silence.

“Umm. . . Mr. President?” It was Oliver Wu. “What you said, that only works if they see the whole picture, if they accept the way you’re trying to connect the issues.”

“That’s exactly what I’m doing.”

“I guess so. But they might not accept that.”

“I’m not sure I know what you mean, but... so they reject it. So what? What’s the downside?”

“The downside is you make it worse. What you’re doing is, you’re implicitly recognizing they have a right to Taiwan, but now you’re dictating to them when they can have it. If they choose to interpret it like that, it’s more Western colonial imposition. It’s an insult.”

“It’s a way out.”

“It can also be seen as an insult.”

The president looked around. There was an exasperated, confused shaking of heads.

“Mr. President,” said Olsen, “all I can say is, if we do this, we’re the ones who are blinking. We’re the ones backing down. And we don’t need to. What we’re doing is working.”

“They’re not moving their forces, sir,” said MacMahon. “I agree with Larry.”

“Maybe they’re still preparing,” said Ball.

Enderlich shook his head. “They’re ready. We know their numbers.”

“We need to stand firm,” said Olsen. “Keep our forces in position, ready to fight. If we’re ready to fight, we won’t have to.”

“And what if we have to fight?” said Benton.

“Then we will,” said MacMahon.

The president nodded. “I’ve had the statement drawn up.”

Ben Hoffman got up and handed out a set of papers.

“What is this?” said Olsen. “Who have you been consulting?” He started to read his copy. “You’re really going to put this out?”

“They need a way out and this is going to give it to them without any bloodshed,” said Benton.

“Except the bloodshed when they take over twenty-six million people on Taiwan,” muttered MacMahon.

“Who said there’ll be bloodshed?”

“They’re not exactly best friends, Beijing and Taipei.”

“Well, frankly, I’ll take my chances with that. Any day of the week, I’ll trade whatever happens there for the welfare of millions of Americans whose lives are going to be destroyed if we can’t get agreement on Carbon.”

“And what if—”

“I’ve said this is it!” Benton slammed the table. “There are a thousand what-ifs. I’ve decided this is what I’m going to do. I’m going to call President Tan and let him know, and then Jodie’s putting this statement out. Now I want you all to look at it and tell me if you think we need to change anything.”

“I just think this is the biggest mistake we can make,” said Larry Olsen.

“Noted.” Joe Benton looked around at the others to see if they had anything to add. “Okay. I know you’ll all do your best to support it.”

Three hours later, the statement was issued. Overnight, an American F-42 was blown out of the sky over the South China Sea. The Chinese authorities claimed the plane had entered Chinese airspace and failed to turn back after repeated warnings. They described it as aggression amounting to an act of war.

No one knew whether that was Beijing’s response to Benton’s statement or the lucky shot of a trigger-happy pilot.

~ * ~

Thursday, October 27

Family Residence, The White House

Joe Benton sat on the edge of the bed. He was haggard, exhausted. He felt as if he hadn’t slept in a month. He stared at the floor, at his feet in their blue slippers.

He could feel himself being dragged into war. It seemed inexorable. It was like a nightmare, a closed, stifling nightmare world of briefings and intelligence and speculation and escalating incidents with the Chinese that somehow he couldn’t bring to an end. What did they want? No matter what he did, what he said, they wouldn’t stop. UN Secretary-General Nleki had offered to mediate, but China refused to recognize the right of the UN to involve itself in events concerning Taiwan. The Chinese had said they would boycott a Security Council debate that was scheduled for Friday. At home, everywhere Benton looked, there was division and acrimony. In Congress, in the press, among his own advisors. On Capitol Hill, there was talk of a Democrat-backed resolution urging restraint on the president and a Republican-backed resolution demanding defense of Taiwan. Half the media seemed to be consumed by war lust, as if Taiwan was the fifty-first state. The other half excoriated him for even having troops in the region.