The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future (49 page)

504
Especially Shanghai, Osaka-Kobe, Lagos, and Manila. Also affected will be Buenos Aires, Chennai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Istanbul, Jakarta, Karachi, Kolkata, Los Angeles, Mumbai, New York, Rio de Janeiro, Shenzhen, and Tokyo.

505
Geological data suggests the WAIS collapsed 400,000 years ago, and perhaps even 14,500 years ago. P. U. Clark et al., “The Last Glacial Maximum,”
Science
325, no. 5941 (August 7, 2009): 710-714, DOI:10.1126/science.1172873. It is also clear the WAIS is currently losing mass, and there is evidence this has been happening for the past 15,000 years in response to rising sea levels initiated by deglaciation in the northern hemisphere. Thus, even limiting greenhouse warming may not lead to the desired stabilization of the ice sheet. J. Oerlemans, “Freezes, Floes, and the Future,
Nature
462 (2009): 572-573, DOI:10.1038/462572a.

506
Sea levels are not the same everywhere but vary owing to water pile-up from currents, gravitational attraction, water temperature, crustal rebound, and other factors. The above-average sea-level rise along the U.S. coastline is shown by J. X. Mitrovica et al., “The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse,”
Science
323, no. 5915 (February 6, 2009): 753, DOI:10.1126/science.1166510; and J. L. Bamber et al., “Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,”
Science
324, no. 5929 (May 15, 2009): 901-903, DOI:10.1126/science.1169335. The latter study also suggests a global average sea-level increase of 3.2 meters for a WAIS collapse, lower than the five-meter estimate by the IPCC AR4.

507
For more, see D. G. Vaughan, R. Arthern, “Why Is It Hard to Predict the Future of Ice Sheets?”
Science
315, no. 5818 (2007): 1503-1504, DOI:10.1126/science.1141111; and R. B. Alley et al., “Understanding Glacier Flow in Changing Times,”
Science
322 (2008): 1061-1062.

508
S. A. Zimov et al., “Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget,”
Science
312, no. 5780 (2006): 1612-1613, DOI:10.1126/science.1128908; E. A. G. Schuur et al., “Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle,”
Bioscience
58, no. 8 (2008): 701-714; C. Tarnocai et al., “Soil Organic Carbon Pools in the Northern Circumpolar Permafrost Region,”
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
23, GB2023 (2009), DOI:10.1029/2008GB003327.

509
For more on the challenges surrounding this problem, see S. E. Trumbore, C. I. Czimczik, “An Uncertain Future for Soil Carbon,”
Science
321 (2008): 1455-1456.

510
By drilling cores to the bottom of peatlands and radiocarbon dating their age, we know that northern peatlands started spreading quickly about 11,700 years ago as the Younger Dryas cold period ended. This methane shows up in ice cores of Greenland and Antarctica. L. C. Smith et al., “Siberian Peatlands a Net Carbon Sink and Global Methane Source since the Early Holocene,”
Science
303 (2004): 353-356; and G. M. MacDonald et al., “Rapid Early Development of Circumarctic Peatlands and Atmospheric CH
₄
and CO
₂
Variations,”
Science
314 (2006): 285-288. Sweden study is E. Dorrepaal et al., “Carbon Respiration from Subsurface Peat Accelerated by Climate Warming in the Subarctic,”
Nature
460 (2009): 616-619, DOI:10.1038/nature08216. The two West Siberia studies are K. E. Frey and L. C. Smith, “Amplified Carbon Release from Vast West Siberian Peatlands by 2100,”
Geophysical Research Letters
32, L09401 (2005), DOI:10.1029/2004GL022025, 2005; and D. W. Beilman et al., “Carbon Accumulation in Peatlands of West Siberia over the Last 2000 Years,”
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
23, GB1012 (2009), DOI:10.1029/2007GB003112. Alaska study is E. A. G. Schuur et al., “The Effect of Permafrost Thaw on Old Carbon Release and Net Carbon Exchange from Tundra,”
Nature
459 (2009): 556-559, DOI:10.1038/nature08031.

511
In other words a large generation of parents born when fertility was still high. Population momentum also works in reverse—for example, elderly countries would continue to shrink even if fertility were increased, owing to a small generation of parents born when fertility was low.

512
As a percentage of GNP, over the period 1880-1913 national investment and national savings were more strongly correlated in the industrialized countries than they were in 1999, meaning that investment today relies more on domestic saving and less on foreign investment than it did in 1913. Pp. 89-90 and Figure 3.3, P. Knox et al.,
The Geography of the World Economy,
4th ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 437 pp.

513
Just before World War I broke out, merchandise trade averaged 12% of gross national output for industrialized nations, a level not attained again until the 1970s. P. 32, M. B. Steger,
Globalization: A Very Short Introduction
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 147 pp.

514
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2008), 99 pp.

515
“Green with Envy: The Tension between Free Trade and Capping Emissions,”
The Economist,
November 21, 2009.

516
Nataliya Ryzhova and Grigory Ioffe document hyberbolic assertions ranging from ten to twelve million Chinese already inside Russia to predictions of forty million by the year 2020. Russian migration scholars estimate a current figure of only four hundred thousand Chinese. N. Ryzhova, G. Ioffe, “Trans-border Exchange between Russia and China: The Case of Blagoveshchensk and Heihe,”
Eurasian Geography and Economics
50, no. 3 (2009): 348-364, DOI:10.2747/1539-7216.50.3.348.

517
Ryzhova and Ioffe note thirty-four thousand Chinese labor migrants in Amur Oblast versus an official statistic of just 435. Ibid.

518
B. Lo, “The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership: Russia’s Evolving China Policy,”
International Affairs
80, no. 2 (2004): 295-309. This contested island was finally ceded to China in 1991.

519
W-J Kim, “Cooperation and Conflict among Provinces: The Three Northeastern Provinces of China, the Russian Far East, and Sinuiju, North Korea,”
Issues & Studies
44, no. 3 (September 2008): 205-227. “Development of Trade and Economic Collaboration between China and Primorye Discussed in Vladivostok,”
http://vladivostoktimes.ru/show/?id=48916&p=
(accessed March 11, 2010).

520
In 2004 Turkey signed a deal to send water by supertanker to Israel. The program has since struggled off and on, but Israel has floated the idea of a water pipeline from Turkey. C. Recknagel, “Can ‘Wet’ Countries Export Water to ‘Dry’ Ones?” Radio Free Europe, March 21, 2009,
www.rferl.org/Content/Can_Wet_Countries_Export_Water_To_Dry_Ones/1514322.html
.

521
As of 2009 the eastern route is mostly done, the central route is anticipated for 2014, and the controversial western route through mountains slated for completion in 2050. S. Oster, “China Slows Water Project,”
The Wall Street Journal,
December 31, 2008.

522
P. Annin,
The Great Lakes Water Wars
(Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2006), 303 pp.

523
Québec premier Robert Bourassa and future prime minister John Turner. R. MacGregor, “A Visionary’s Epiphany about Water,”
The Globe and Mail,
October 5, 2009,
www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-visionarys-epiphany-about-water/article1311853/
. See also pp. 60-63, P. Annin,
The Great Lakes Water Wars
(Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2006), 303 pp.

524
Modeling studies suggest that the GRAND Canal project would delay spring ice-out on Hudson Bay as much as a month each year, causing colder, wetter conditions locally during the peak of the growing season, a change in coastal flora, the retreat of forests from the coast, and the growth of permafrost. W. R. Rouse, M-K Woo, J. S. Price, “Damming James Bay: 1. Potential Impacts on Coastal Climate and the Water Balance,”
The Canadian Geographer
36, no. 1 (1992): 2-7.

525
F. Pierre Gingras, “Northern Waters: A Realistic, Sustainable and Profitable Plan to Exploit Quebec’s Blue Gold,” Montreal Economic Institute, Economic Notes (special edition, July 2009),
www.iedm.org/uploaded/pdf/juillet09_en.pdf
.

526
P. Micklin, “‘Project of the Century’: The Siberian Water Transfer Scheme,” paper prepared for Engineering Earth; the Impacts of Megaengineering Projects, University of Kentucky, July 21-24, 2008.

527
In 2004. “Luzhkov Wants to Reverse a River,”
The Moscow Times,
December 10, 2002; N. N. Mikheyev, “
Voda bez granits
(Water without Limits),”
Melioratsiya i vodnoye khozyaystvo
1 (2002):32-34; see also F. Pearce, “Russia Reviving Massive River Diversion Plan,”
New Scientist,
February 9, 2009,
www.newscientist.com/article/dn4637-russia-reviving-massive-river-diversion-plan.html?full=true
.; and P. Micklin, “The Aral Sea Crisis and Its Future: An Assessment in 2006,”
Eurasian Geography and Economics
47, no. 5 (2006): 546-567, DOI:10.2747/1538-7216.47.5.546.

528
The Ob’, Yenisei, and Lena rivers dump significant amounts of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, much of which freezes into sea ice, then eventually flushes out through Fram Strait or the Canadian Archipelago toward the North Atlantic, where it melts, freshening ocean surface waters and thus impeding deepwater sinking of the thermohaline circulation.

529
The European Space Agency’s first CryoSat satellite cost about €140 million but was destroyed in a 2005 launch failure; a follow-up CryoSat-2 was built and launched successfully in April 2010. NASA launched its first ICESat in 2003 and is building two more ice-seeking satellites, ICESat-II and DESDynI, slated for launch around 2015; a total capital investment of USD $2 billion seems likely for these three satellite missions. For more background, see
Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond
, Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future (Washington, D.C.: National Research Council, 2007), ISBN: 978-0-309-10387-9, 456 pp.

530
This paragraph refers to details presented earlier in the book, including U.S. naval exercises off Alaska’s North Slope, Norway’s recent purchase of five Aegis-armed frigates and nearly fifty F-35 fighter jets, and Samsung’s pursuit of a polar tanker vessel to transport liquefied natural gas from Arctic waters. The total amount received by the U.S. Minerals Management Service from energy companies for an Arctic offshore lease sale totaled USD $2.7 billion in 2008.

531
Arctic Council,
AMSA, Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009
: 77-79.

532
From GIS analysis of global map data I calculate the following in square kilometers for the world’s planetary surface area, land extent, ice-free land extent, and ice-free/permafrost-free land extent, respectively. World: 508,779,504 km
²
, 147,263,072 km
²
, 132,801,596 km
²
and 109,508,640 km
²
, respectively. North of 45° N: 74,697,936 km
²
, 40,364, 452 km
²
, 38,212,960 km
²
, and 17,100,072 km
²
. North of Arctic Circle: 21,239,512 km
²
, 7,930,424 km
²
, 6,159,648 km
²
, and 271,632 km
²
. By all measures, we see the Arctic proper (between 66.55º and 90º N latitude) is truly a tiny place.

533
This particular geographic definition of the “Arctic,” proposed in the 2004 Arctic Human Development Report, encompasses all of Alaska; Canada north of 60° N latitude together with northern Québec and Labrador; all of Greenland and the Faroe Islands; Iceland; the northernmost counties of Norway, Sweden, and Finland; and in Russia the Murmansk Oblast, the Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets, Taimyr, and Chukotka autonomous okrugs, Vorkuta City in the Komi Republic, Noril’sk and Igarka in Krasnoyarsky Kray, and parts of the Sakha Republic lying closest to the Arctic Circle. Pp. 17-18,
Arctic Human Development Report
(Akureyri, Iceland: Stefansson Arctic Institute, 2004), 242 pp.

534
USA North, defined as states touching or lying north of 45° N latitude. Alaska, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin all graze the 45th parallel and are contained within a NORC country as per the “North” definition in Chapter 1. Excluding New York State would lower the NORC totals to $5.944 trillion GDP, 31,837,087 km
²
land area, and 235,059,000 people.