The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future (40 page)

170
Energy Technology Perspectives—Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2006), 479 pp.; and Table 2.5,
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
(OECD/International Energy Agency, 2008), 643 pp.

171
“Explosive Growth: LNG Expands in Australia,”
The Economist,
November 21, 2009, 66-67.

172
“BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009,” 45 pp.,
www.bp.com/statisticalreview
(accessed November 28, 2009).

173
More precisely, 150 times current annual production for hard coal, and over 200 times annual production for lignite. T. Thielemann, S. Schmidt, J. P. Gerling, “Lignite and Hard Coal: Energy Suppliers for World Needs until the Year 2100—An Outlook,”
International Journal of Coal Geology
72 (2007): 1-14.

174
Equivalent to five hundred 500-megawatt coal-fired power plants. J. Deutch, E. J. Moniz, I. Green et al,
The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained World
(Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007), 105 pp.

175
Fischer-Tropsch technology is one way to do this. Ibid
.

176
L. C. Smith, G. A. Olyphant, “Within-Storm Variations in Runoff and Sediment Export from a Rapidly Eroding Coal-Refuse Deposit,”
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
19 (1994): 369-375.

177
C. Gautier,
Oil, Water, and Climate: An Introduction
(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008), 366 pp.

178
T. Thielemann, S. Schmidt, J. P. Gerling, “Lignite and Hard Coal: Energy Suppliers for World Needs until the Year 2100—An Outlook,”
International Journal of Coal Geology
72 (2007): 1-14.

179
J. Deutch, E. J. Moniz, I. Green et al,
The Future of Coal: Options for a Carbon-Constrained World
(Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007), 105 pp.

180
“Trouble in Store,”
The Economist,
March 7, 2009, 74-75.

181
Iowa weather events reconstructed from personal interview with State Climatologist Harry Hillaker in Des Moines, July 16, 2008; also a written summary he prepared in December 2008; also press releases from the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

182
“FEMA, Iowans Mark Six Month Anniversary of Historic Disaster,” Federal Emergency Management Agency, Press Release Number 1763-222, November 26, 2008.

183
“Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship Officials Brief Rebuild Iowa Commission on Damage to Conservation Practices from Flooding,” press release, Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, July 31, 2008.

184
D. Heldt, “University of Iowa’s New Flood Damage Estimate: $743 million,”
The Gazette,
March 13, 2009.

185
California Fire Siege 2007: An Overview
, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, 108 pp.,
http://www.fire.ca.gov/index.php
(accessed March 22, 2009).

186
Executive Order S-06-08, signed June 4, 2008, by Arnold Schwarzenegger, governor of the State of California.

187
Proclamation, “State of Emergency—Water Shortage,” issued February 27, 2009, by Arnold Schwarzenegger, governor of the State of California.

188
J. McKinley, “Severe Drought Adds to Hardships in California,”
The New York Times,
February 22, 2009. The Central Valley has 4.7 million acres.

189
L. Copeland, “Drought Spreading in Southeast,”
USA Today,
February 12, 2008; D. Chapman, “Water Fight May Ripple in Georgia,”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution,
August 24, 2008.

190
D. W. Stahle et al., “Early Twenty-first-Century Drought in Mexico,”
Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union
90, no. 11 (March 17, 2009).

191
Drought data from the University College London Global Drought Monitor,
http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html
(accessed March 25, 2009).

192
UN Food and Agricultural Organization Global Information and Early Warning System (FAO/GIEWS), Crop Prospects and Food Situation, no. 2, April 2008. Updates posted bimonthly at
http://www.fao.org/giews/english/
.

193
Severe drought hit 9.5 million hectares of winter wheat in Henan, Anhai, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu provinces. UN FAO/GIEWS Global Watch, January 4, 2009.

194
“1,500 Farmers Commit Mass Suicide in India,”
Belfast Telegraph,
April 15, 2009.

195
Global flood inventory data downloaded from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory,
www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/
(accessed March 25, 2009) indicate 4,553 fatalities and 17,487,312 people displaced between January 3 and November 4, 2008.

196
Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture
(London: Earthscan, and Colombo: International Water Management Institute, 2007), 665 pp.

197
I. A. Shiklomanov, “World Fresh Water Resources,” in P. H. Gleick, ed.,
Water in Crisis
(New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), 13-24. Note: It is necessary to cite all of I. A. Shiklomanov’s initials because he also produced two famous geoscientist sons—Alexander Igor and Nikolai Igor—leading to three Shiklomanovs in overlapping fields, creating much confusion for everyone.

198
Average annual water withdrawal estimated at 3,800 km
³
. O. Taikan, S. Kanael, “Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources,”
Science
313, no. 5790 (2006): 1068- 1072. For definitions of withdrawal vs. consumption, see note 227.

199
Global water withdrawal is thought to be about 3,800 km
³
per year and global artificial storage capacity is about 7,200 km
³
. Ibid. For definitions, see note 225.

200
Table 2, “Food and Water,”
World Resources 2008 Data Tables
(Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute, 2008).

201
Based on 2010 and 2050 population projections for Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. United Nations,
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision
,
http://esa.un.org/unpp/
.

202
The Central Arizona Project.

203
R. G. Glennon,
Water Follies
(Washington, D.C.: Island Press, USA, 2002), 314 pp.

204
Note that in the United States, however, the trend over the last ~40 years has been declining total water consumption (not just per capita), owing to declining industrial use, as well as more efficient agricultural practices, appliances, low flush toilets, and higher density housing.

205
C. J. Vörösmarty, P. Green, J. Salisbury, R. B. Lammers, “Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth,”
Science
289, no. 5477 (2000): 284-288. The study identifies “severe” water stress as areas where the ratio of human water withdrawal to available river discharge is 0.4 or higher. The described three maps are found in Figure 3 of this paper. They are slightly deceptive in places like the western United States, where the source areas of water (e.g., mountain snowpack) differ from where the water is used (e.g., Tucson, Los Angeles, etc).

206
E.g., “Impending global-scale changes in population and economic development,” the authors conclude, “will dictate the future . . . to a much greater degree than will changes in mean climate.” Ibid.

207
Piped, protected wells or springs, rainwater cisterns, or boreholes.

208
Ethiopians (22%), Somalians (29%), Afghanis and Papua New Guineans (39%), Cambodians (41%), Chadians (42%), Equatorial Guineans and Mozambicans (43%). Data Table 3, P. H. Gleick et al.,
The World’s Water 2008-2009
(Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2009), 432 pp.

209
J. Bartram, K. Lewis, R. Lenton, A. Wright, “Focusing on Improved Water and Sanitation for Health,”
The Lancet
365, no. 9461 (2005): 810-812.

210
M. Barlow,
Blue Gold: The Fight to Stop the Corporate Theft of the World’s Water
(New York: The New Press, 2003), 296 pp.;
Blue Covenant: The Global Water Crisis and the Coming Battle for the Right to Water
(New York: The New Press, 2007), 196 pp.

211
Mission statement of the World Water Council,
www.world
watercouncil.org
(accessed April 5, 2009).

212
A good account of these battles is the award-winning documentary
Flow
(2008),
www.flowthefilm.com
.

213
P. 189, UN World Water Assessment Programme
, The United Nations World Water Development Report 3: Water in a Changing World
(Paris: UNESCO, and London: Earthscan, 2009), 318 pp.

214
Virtually all countries negotiate water-sharing agreements for transboundary rivers crossing their borders. For emerging ideas on how satellites could change the game, see D. E. Alsdorf et al., “Measuring Surface Water from Space,”
Reviews of Geophysics
45, no. 2, article no. RG2002 (2007); D. E. Alsdorf et al., “Measuring global oceans and terrestrial freshwater from space,”
Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union
88, no. 24 (2007): 253; F. Hossain, “Introduction to the Featured Series on Satellites and Transboundary Water: Emerging Ideas,”
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
45, no. 3 (2009): 551-552; S. Biancamaria et al., “Preliminary Characterization of SWOT Hydrology Error Budget and Global Capabilities,”
IEEE JSTARS
3, no. 1 (2010): 6-19.

215
The Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite will also measure oceans. It is a joint venture between the space agencies of the United States and France (NASA and CNES).For more, see
http://swot.jpl.nasa.gov/index.cfm
.

216
E.g., global topography data from SRTM (
http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/
) and ASTER (
http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp
); global image data from Landsat (
http://www.landcover.org/index.shtml
); and many others.

217
D. Ignatius, “The Climate-Change Precipice,”
The Washington Post,
March 2, 2007; F. Al-Obaid, “Water Scarcity and Resource War,”
Kuwait Times,
March 9, 2008; H. A. Amery, “Water Wars in the Middle East: A Looming Threat,
The Geographical Journal
168, no. 4 (2002): 313-23; N. L. Poff et al., “River Flows and Water Wars: Emerging Science for Environmental Decision Making,”
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1,
no. 6 (2003): 298-306; and others.

218
P. 19, UN World Water Assessment Programme,
The United Nations World Water Development Report 3: Water in a Changing World
(Paris: UNESCO, and London: Earthscan, 2009), 318 pp.

219
P. 163, M. Klare,
Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict
(New York: Holt Paperbacks, 2002), 304 pp.

220
Ibid., p. 139.

221
Between 1948 and 1999 there were 1,831 interactions between countries over water resources, ranging from verbal exchanges to written agreements to military activity. Of these, 67% were cooperative, 28% conflictive, and 5% neutral or insignificant. There were no formal declarations of war made specifically over water. W. Barnaby, “Do Nations Go to War over Water?”
Nature
458 (2009): 282-283; other material drawn from S. Yoffe et al.,
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
39 (2003): 1109-1126; A. T. Wolf, “Shared Waters: Conflict and Cooperation,”
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
32 (2007): 241-69.

222
See
http://biblio.pacinst.org/conflict/
and
http://worldwater.org/conflictchronology.pdf
and
http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/
.