The Shelter: Book 1, The Beginning (3 page)

“Okay.”

Turning on the evening news, the talking heads are all saying the same thing, “Greece couldn’t just write off their debt, or could they? They wouldn’t dare write it off. If they did, it would cause the EU to break up, the Euro would collapse. Europe’s dream of a united continent could die because of a handful of selfish Greeks. Surely, cooler heads will prevail to avoid a worldwide monetary crisis.” Every station reported the same story. Every reporter thought the Greeks would use their election to win some concessions from their lenders, then everything would return to normal. The world would move on to the really important stories, Kim Kardashian's new photos.

Lacy asked me, “Honey, do you think they're right? Will Greece screw up the economy in Europe? Why would the Greeks think they can just make their debt go away? Will it impact us?”

“Most of them are socialists, they live on the government dole. They have an entitlement mentality, theirs is worse even than what’s developed here.  They are used to having the government supply them with everything. Many in Europe never even try to find work, they’re happy living on the government dole; that is until the various European governments had to start cutting back on their payments and benefits. The reduction impacted their lifestyles which is what led to the results of last week's election.”

Sipping her wine, Lacy asked, “What happens if the Greeks decide to walk away from their debt?”

“Greece will enter a state of technical bankruptcy, they will have to drop out of the EU and revert to using their own currency which won’t have any external value. Prices for everything in Greece will go up, the lives of the Greeks will be much worse than they were before the election. Store shelves will be empty even worse than they are now. Nothing will be imported because their currency won’t be accepted by other countries. Millions will lose their jobs, Greek unemployment will skyrocket.”

“Then why did they elect a Marxist?”

“Because they’re spoiled children, they only know they don’t like their current situation. They’d have voted for you if you promised them you’d restore their pay, jobs, and pensions. They want things back to the way they used to be. They want their lifestyle back.”

“Well, let’s forget Greece for tonight, let’s talk about our winnings.”

“Honey, what do you want to do with the money?”

“Jay, I want to give some to the girls, some to my family, I want to buy a house, a new car, maybe go on a long vacation. Why don’t you give me a little time, I haven’t had a lot of time to think about what I want since you told me we won.”

“Lacy, do you want to continue to work?”

“I think so, I’d be bored with nothing to do, on the other hand not having to get up early every morning has a lot of appeal. I really don’t know yet. When do we get the money?”

“We have to go to their office in Richmond to get it.”

“Do they give us a single check?”

“We have a choice, either 26 years of payments or a one-time cash payout.”

“I think we should take the one-time payout. No one knows if we’ll be here in 26 years, or if the lottery will be able to pay it out that far in the future. Or what it will be worth if inflation continues to increase.”

“I’m going to call Beth, our accountant in the morning.”

While we’re chatting, the talking heads on the news show a video of the newly elected Greek Prime Minister laying flowers on the World War Two Memorial. I look at Lacy, “Oh, oh, he’s going to stir up problems now.”

“Why? All he did is lay some flowers on a memorial.”

“Honey, the German’s are the leading lenders to the Greeks, the new Prime Minister said he was going to write off the debt, which means he doesn’t plan on paying it back. By laying the flowers on the memorial, he’s telling the Germans he remembers their atrocities from the Second World War. He’s setting up a major confrontation between Greece and Germany. He was a communist in his early days. That may also have something to do with his actions how he acts towards Germany. There was a report on the news today that Greece is going to invoice Germany for damages done to it during World War 2. The damages exceed the amount of loans the Germans have given the Greeks, which has the effect of Greece not having any debt.”

“Will it impact us?”

“My gut says the other European leaders are watching what Greece does. If they see Greece getting away with writing off their debt and not getting penalized, they will do it too. That will cause the EU to break apart. The value of the Euro will collapse and that will cause a massive financial stress around the world. It could even lead the world into a new depression worse than 1929.”

“I didn’t realize one country could cause another worldwide depression. Maybe we should ask the lottery to pay us in gold?”

Smiling, “Not a bad idea, but I don’t think they will.”

The next news report was about the war in the Ukraine. Lacy asks, “Is that still going on?”

I frown, not liking what we’re hearing, “It looks like it's getting worse. Russia is saying they have proof NATO troops are fighting against their army in the Ukraine. If the Russians have proof NATO troops are fighting them, it will give Putin the reason he’s looking for to expand the war and possibly implement sanctions like cutting off natural gas deliveries to Europe. The Europeans depend on Russian gas for their heat. This is a horrible winter, over a hundred thousand could freeze to death without heat. Putin could even declare war against NATO, saying Russia was attacked first. This could be the spark that ignites World War 3.”

“Aren’t we still in NATO?”

“Yes, but we have nothing to worry about. President Obama told us there isn’t any fighting in the Ukraine, so how could the Russians have any proof we had troops there? Don’t you remember, he reminded us just a week ago, the world is more peaceful since he became President?”

“Oh, you mean, just like he told us our health care costs were going to decline $2,500 a year and instead they increased, and we can keep our doctor, which we can’t.”

“But they increased at a slower rate. Doesn’t that count?”

We both laugh while ignoring the news, returning to our chatting about what we are going to do with our new-found winning. 

After exchanging a lot of jokes, I turn serious, “Lacy, I know I’ve asked already asked you, give serious thought to if you still want to work? You don’t have to.”

“What about the insurance?”

“I think we can afford to pay for it until you reach 65 and go on Medicare, which I hope will still be able to support us.”

“I don’t think money’s going to be a problem for a while.”

“Jay, I still can’t believe it’s real.”

“I know, me too.”

“I can’t just quit, it would create a burden on my entire team. Let me have a couple of days to think about it. Although, something is happening at the office.”

“Lacy, what do you mean something is happening at the office?”

“The big report we spent all day working on had to do with our financial future given the rapid decrease in the cost of oil. We bleeding cash like there’s no tomorrow.”

“Bad enough to cause layoffs?”

“That’s my feeling. I heard a rumor that some staff are going to be released this Friday.”

“Do you think you’re on the list?”

“I don’t think so. But these days, no one is really safe. I guess we don’t have to worry about it now.”

We both laugh.

After cleaning up from dinner, we sit in the family room watching television. Lacy puts on her programs while I surf the web and look at various posts on different forums I belong to. Many posters are very nervous about the implications of the Greek election and their new Prime Minister. I open a note file to start listing items we ought to purchase, now that we can afford it. We can finally afford to increase our supplies. We’ve been preppers for a couple years, we had three to four months of food, water and medications stored. We also have a couple of ARs, shotguns, and handguns, in addition to twelve thousand rounds of ammo. We have first aid kits and portable stoves for cooking. I also have six extra propane tanks which we could use for heat, light or cooking on our BBQ grill. Three hours later, Lacy asks if I want to join her upstairs, saying she’s tired.

“Sure thing, be right there, just shutting down, I hadn’t noticed how quickly time slipped by.”

Turning off the light, I quickly fell asleep thinking about the prize and what to do with it.

Chapter 2

While we slept, the leaders in Europe were panicking over the Greek election results. The existing Greek Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras tended his resignation, saying, he didn’t think there was any reason why the people’s choice shouldn’t take office immediately. The Leaders of Spain, Italy, Belgium, Austria and Portugal held a secret conference call to discuss the financial situation. Mariano Rajoy, the President of Spain, started off the discussion by asking the others, “If Greece can write off her debt, why can’t we? Why do they get a chance of starting over and getting out from under the punishing payments and the restrictive controls the Germans have placed on all of us? I say if Tsipras gets away with restructuring or writing off any part of Greece’s debt we all should get the same or a better deal. We’ve been making our interest payments while the Greeks haven’t. I for one, am not going to explain to the Spanish people that the Greeks got a better deal than we did. I’m not going to accept any change in the terms of their loans without a better option for the Spanish people.”

Charles Michel, the leader of Belgium, says, “I agree with you. The people of Belgium also won’t accept they have to tighten their belts even more than they currently are, so the Greeks have an easier time of it. If Merkel gives the Greeks any relief from the agreed to spending controls, we should all stop making interest payments. Merkel controls all of the banks. I suggest we line up support from every member of the Union to pressure Merkel into giving all of us a better deal. If Merkel sees we’re united behind Tsipras, she may blink. Tsipras is going to have to move very quickly to fulfill his campaign promises to the people who elected him. Does anyone think he’ll succeed where we’ve all failed?”

Matteo Renzi, the leader of Italy, says, “I’ve spoken to him during the campaign. I asked him how he plans to succeed when we’ve all failed to win modifications in the restrictions on our government spending. He said if the banks and Merkel don’t accept his changes, he’s serious about pulling Greece out of the EU and a return to using the Greek Drachma. He also said he’s got a surprise for Germany. He’s going to bill Germany for damage done to Greece in the Second World War.”

Werner Faymann, the leader of Austria replies, “Does he realize if Greece leaves the Union, others will follow. Our dream of a united Europe will come to an end because some fat, lazy Greeks wanted more. He’ll hurt all of our people if he withdraws Greece from the Union. He’ll take the Union down and all of us with it if he follows through with his threats. He could start another worldwide depression. His little stunt of threatening to bill Germany for damages done seventy years ago is a joke.”

Mariano Rajoy sighs, “I think the Union is coming apart anyway. If Greece stays in the union, it will only delay the unenviable. Germany lost the First and Second World Wars, but now Merkel controls the banks who in turn controls the Union. She may have lost the military side of the battle, but she won the war. She indirectly rules all of us. She mandates what and how we spend.”

Matteo Renzi asks, “Mariano, do you really believe the Union is doomed?”

“Yes, I do. All of our economies are weak, our people demand jobs and a brighter future for their children. When we tied ourselves together, we became only as strong our weakest member. Unfortunately, we have too many weak members. We have been at each other’s throats for hundreds of years. In the last one hundred years Germany tried twice to conquer all of us, now because their leader controls the banks, she, they
have
conquered us. Our people resent it. I don’t see Merkel accepting any changes to the bailout package she backed for Greece, that'll force Tsipras to pull Greece out of the Union. Which one of us will be next? When the Union implodes how will Merkel get her banks repaid? She’s not going to pay them back from the Germany’s operating funds. Our people are tired of austerity programs, our people are burned-out being told they have to accept less and less. I think Tsipras might be onto something. If all of us unite, Merkel can’t stop us.”