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Authors: Vinay Kolhatkar

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Later that day, Olivia attended a function at a retirement village just outside Arlington. She sat around for hours with the senior citizens and the resident doctors and nurses, listening to their worries and their problems, making no promises other than “I’ll do what I can.”

Katrina Marshella, of course, had known that Olivia was coming and made sure that some press corps were around. The photo op was brilliant, but Olivia was genuine, even making notes in her notebook as she buzzed around.

The next day, Olivia was at George Mason University addressing a student antiwar rally in the university lecture hall.

“We need military bases overseas,” she said, “because they protect us from terrorism on home soil. But it is important that we do not become invaders or even begin to be perceived as invaders. You might say it’s too late for that. We are already perceived as invaders.

“That is the fault of the current administration. We are in Bahrain and Qatar and Israel and Brazil at their request. We went back into Saudi Arabia in 2017 at their request. What Colin Spain wants is for these bases to contain forces of the host country and our own so it is no longer seen as an exclusive American force.

“Terrorism did not happen overnight. It was brewing for years…for decades maybe. And it will not go away overnight. But Colin Spain is committed to establishing a government in Syria that will protect the basic human rights of the Syrian people, particularly of the Syrian women, and then making a speedy withdrawal of all our forces. We are neither hawks nor doves. Those labels frankly do not mean much anymore.

“Pakistan is a more complex issue. And, of course, we are opposed to any new involvements, such as Iran, which the Young administration has got almost inexorably involved in and that Vice President Kirby has flirted with.

“It’s a strong and safe America that will be a beacon of hope and freedom around the world.”

Olivia appeared strong and resolute. Her “War and Freedom” address was reported in a good light all around the nation, and she went home to yet another anxiety attack, suffered in the complete privacy of her study.

 

16
New Hampshire

January 27 was the New Hampshire primary for the Democrats, and January 30 was the equivalent day for Republicans.

Olivia knew that New Hampshire had long ceased to be reliably partisan. The state supported Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Republican George Bush in 2000, then Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, New Hampshire supported William Young, the Republican nominee.

Colin Spain and Larry Fox had decided to postpone their announcement that Olivia Allen was the VP nominee until Colin had alerted senior party members. This left Olivia at risk of missing out. However, she was enjoying the campaign and knew she would be better off for just having participated, vice presidential nomination or not.

Olivia had hardly rubbed the sleep off from her eyes. It was four am, and she had been summoned to the campaign office with Larry and Katrina. Colin looked shaken.
It must be an emergency.
Only callers with special codes could pierce urgent texts into a turned-off cell phone. She had two: one from Colin, the other from her staff that said “foreign policy crisis.”

Thankfully, the coffee was brewed strong. As Katrina passed her a mug, Olivia noticed that the other coffee cups on the table were already half-full. She felt a pang of guilt that passed quickly. Larry was addressing the group.

“Iran’s orthodox government of Hassan Nader is backed by the religious clerics, their leader is Ayatollah Rahsani. Nader has ordered a violent crackdown. The Iranian middle class yearns for freedom: freedom of the press; freedom to have free and fair elections.”

“And freedom from religious oppression of women,” Olivia said, trying to belong.

The others seemed to ignore her remark.

“Imran Sharif, the leader of the rebels, is operating out of Turkmenistan. The communist government of Turkmenistan has not only granted him asylum but is reportedly helping him prepare an invasion of Iran from the northeast, via the Caspian Sea,” Larry continued. “The CIA has observed troop movements along the border, but the government of Turkmenistan has steadfastly refused to make any comments.”

“Best to call it a watch and monitor situation. Seek international—” Colin said.

“Cooperation. Indeed. But that’s not all,” Larry said.

Olivia sipped on her strong brew.
What do they stand for, the rebels? Shouldn’t that matter the most?
But she kept quiet.

“China,” Larry said. “Last night, they made five takeover offers. Intel, Google, Exxon-Mobil, Boeing, and Caterpillar—at an aggregate cost of two and half trillion.”

“Surely they know that the provisions of the 2015 Foreign Investment Act make it impossible,” Colin said.

“Except via the Senate approval route,” Olivia piped in, “and they hold about eight trillion of American government debt. Two and a half trillion is less than a third of that. So it is not a game of bluff.”

They ignored her again.

“How will it play to resist China?” Colin said.

Olivia didn’t even hear Larry’s response. Her mind was preoccupied.
It’s not about the right answer. It’s about the answer that sells well. I still have so much to learn.

Back in her room by seven, Olivia caught up on her research.

President William Young had so far been noncommittal. However, the suspicion that Iran was already armed with deployable nuclear weapons created such heightened tension that the UN Security Council had agreed to meet three times within one week.

Shaken by China’s increasing use of its currency reserves to buy U.S. natural gas reserves and exploration technology companies, and relenting to populist pressures, the U.S. had passed the Foreign Investment and Ownership Act in 2015, putting further restrictions on foreign ownership of key assets and requiring Senate approval for takeovers, a law the Young administration had refused to repeal. She knew that.

Mr. Huang No Deng, the Chinese Premier, had announced that the Chinese Central Bank would have no hesitation in dumping U.S. dollars on the foreign exchange market unless they could acquire the U.S. assets they wanted. Such a move, said traders, would be catastrophic.
She was right, after all.

Olivia accompanied the entourage to Colin’s speeches and slipped off occasionally to quietly observe the others on-screen. She knew that unlike the usual hypothetical crises of a presidential campaign, these crises were real, urgent, and monumental.

She observed that Colin Spain’s Middle America catchphrase was supplemented by a genuine desire to restore the American middle class, which had almost disappeared by 2020. His gut reaction was to condemn Turkmenistan and China, refuse China permission to takeover the five targets, and publicly assert that Iran had a right of self-determination in respect of its political sovereignty. Being the quintessential politician that he was, he decided to gauge the public mood and reaction with
vox populi
surveys done by secret staffers before announcing his reactions.

Her study revealed that Sidney Ganon, Spain’s closest rival, was running on a platform of antiwar rhetoric, suggesting a fast withdrawal of U.S. troops in Syria and Pakistan but never allowing himself to be drawn into a deadline or a committed and detailed plan. Ganon only toyed with the idea of nationalizing banks without committing to it. He wanted to destroy “healthcare litigation” to improve the budgetary outlook, but he never got drawn into the specifics of how he would do that and what actual effect it would have on the ability to repay existing government debt. His response to the first crisis should have been obvious given his antiwar rhetoric, but in his first public appearance after the twin crises began, he got confused between Turkey and Turkmenistan and thereafter wished that he had not been born. He wasn’t asked about his opinion on China.

Olivia knew that Casey Rogers was running on a multilateralism slogan, suggesting that America “doing it alone” was the reason for all of America’s woes. Negotiations were his favorite approach to problem solving. A big fan of social justice, Rogers wanted to have everything from gender quotas for company presidents to race quotas for university admissions. Rogers was first out of the blocks saying he would negotiate with the governments of Turkmenistan and China. Pressed for specifics, he replied that he “would let a win/win strategy drive an optimal outcome for all concerned parties.”

After Olivia spent more time with Larry and Katrina studying the Republican candidates, she felt a lot better. They did not seem have an ideologically consistent platform either but at least she felt free to criticize them.

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