Scaevola's Triumph (Gaius Claudius Scaevola trilogy Book 3) (17 page)

This was not an accident, but a direct response to sociodynamic forces. Once humans had learned to herd animals and grow crops, the forces led to inevitable social developments until they could protect those animals and had gathered all the obvious benefits.

When a point was reached where a set of social forces was fully accommodated, and new ones had yet to take proper form, sociodynamics predicted that progress could stop. A social force arose when people could see that if only such and such happened, life would be better, hence when everyone thought that the current situation was adequate, progress stopped. Progress also tended to stop if religious formalism took priority, as had happened in ancient Egypt, or if unimaginative or negligent kings ruled by dictate. Thus Greece advanced beyond Egypt when it began to formalize and value logic, Rome was a further advance because it absorbed the best of the previous civilizations, and added the value of law and the
pax Romana
, but sociodynamics predicted it was at a crossroads, because it was in danger of becoming a military dictatorship.

By now both of the women had turned off, but the Tin Man had to continue because even though he realized this was a waste of his time, his programming was too limited to allow him to stop.

Civilization would advance as long as there was always another one ready to absorb what had gone before and add to it. However, if one empire was significantly more advanced than the others, and it ceased advancing, the long-term future could be bleak. The exception to that arose if a society recognized the value of knowledge and generated a built-in desire to seek more. Rome had not reached that stage, and if Rome fell to a society less concerned about learning, Earth could go backwards.

There were also problems with advancing. If Terran society continued to develop, they would reach a number of crises. How would they respond to running out of new land? How would they respond to the resource crises, when the rate of demand exceeded the rate of supply?

"You should learn sociodynamics," the Tin Man advised, "then you will be able to conclude how your planet develops?" He stopped and stared at them, clearly demanding a response.

Vipsania had regarded learning sociodynamics with all the enthusiasm she would have in applying for the job of official castor oil taster. Still, she realized she had to say something, so she asked, without enthusiasm, "Do you mean to say, you can work out what will happen to Earth?"

"Oh no," the Tin Man replied. "All of this is to address your requests relating to when your planet might be sufficiently advanced that we could consider permitting you to return."

"So you know when that will be?" Lucilla suddenly found attention.

"No, we don't," the Tin Man replied. "Sociodynamics tells you how the population as a whole behave under given forces. However, once most of the required movement under a given force has taken place, if no new force arises the then situation continues and progress ceases. Nevertheless, occasionally a new situation arises that, in response, will trigger the new forces. However, there may be several such responses possible, each of which generates quite different social forces. Thus lack of food may elicit the construction of major irrigation schemes, or it may cause the society to disintegrate and emigrate to different places. One situation could lead to forces for a cohesive society, or alternatively to a total lack of cohesion, and the disintegration of that society."

"If it cannot tell us what is sure to happen," Lucilla said later, "it is little better than guess-work."

"Not at all. You can at least make educated guesses."

The Terrans were unconvinced, although they did pursue this topic for a while. Unfortunately, once the generalities were out of the way, the mathematics were outside Lucilla's or Vipsania's ability, and they were not tempted to learn the mathematics. Gaius might have had more chance, but at this time he was more interested in the Ulsian physics.

However, one day while he was sitting in the library, a strange droid sat down beside him.

"Hello," the droid greeted him.

Gaius looked up at this newcomer, and frowned. He had had the feeling he was being monitored, and one of the few advantages of going to this library was, as he thought, he could avoid surveillance. It appeared he was wrong. "You want something?"

"No. It is you that want many things," the droid countered, "but I have been instructed to assist your search towards understanding sociodynamics."

"Instructed by whom?" Gaius asked. Now was he being manipulated?

"By Ulsians you do not know," the droid said. "I have been instructed to tell you that which you do not wish to hear, to help you understand why you cannot go back to your home, at least yet."

"Oh?" Gaius picked up his ears.

"As yet you cannot understand the type of social forces the appearance of an alien civilization might have on a developing civilization."

"So your argument is, I cannot understand the effects of my return?"

"As yet, no, you cannot."

"They might have developed sociodynamics," Gaius challenged, "in which case there . . ."

"It is far more likely that they have developed nothing. All you are indulging in is wishful thinking."

"And what makes you so confident that they will have developed nothing?"

"I think it is obvious to you that there is no other civilization on your planet of comparable standing which is in contact with Rome −"

"Wait!" Gaius interrupted. "You said, in contact . . ?"

"Good, you are listening," the droid said, almost, Gaius thought, with satisfaction. Was this possible? "Yes, the Chinese are at a comparable level, but they too have the same long term problem that they are isolated, and without competition. But back to Rome. It has three options, and to get you to think, I shall suggest that the most likely outcome is that Rome will be overrun by barbarians on horseback. Tell me why you think Rome will not so fall?"

Gaius was about to begin with the strength of Rome, when suddenly the words of the prophecy came back to him. When he returned, Rome would be in ruins.

"Suppose I said I thought you might be right?" Gaius offered.

"Now, why would a loyal Roman say that?" the droid said in a teasing tone.

"The leadership depends on one man," Gaius said slowly. He was desperately trying to remember a piece that he had read that had impressed him at the time.

"Go on?"

Gaius stared at the droid. Certainly it was made of metal, but it seemed to be encouraging him.

"You are puzzled?"

"You seemed, well, interested," Gaius said. "So far, what I have seen of your sort of . . ."

"They couldn't care less how you feel?" the droid said, in a tone that had a distinct sense of challenge.

"Well, no. But more importantly, they don't seem to feel anything, and I −"

"I am a rather superior model," the droid said. "I have to have the ability to sense your responses at an emotional level, and to do that I too need emotion. I have been specifically sent to investigate whether it might be possible to assimilate you into any Ulsian culture. Now, your reasoning?"

Gaius stared momentarily in disbelief. Assimilate? Then suddenly it struck him that his very future was at stake. Well, then, it was not as if he had something better to do that he could afford to turn down such a challenge. But what to say? He thought for a moment, then an idea began to form, in part based on his previous thoughts about Little Boots. Yes, sufficient numbers of Little Boots could well bring down Rome.

"Rome is already too big for all but the most competent of men," Gaius offered. "Augustus could manage, but Gaius Caesar, although he really tried, was simply not up to it. If the best you can do is stay level, then over enough time things will deteriorate."

"Good. You identify the form of government as inadequate?"

"Yes, although . . ."

"Although you do not see the Ulsian habit of forming committees as an improvement?"

"Romans wouldn't have the time. It takes them all their time to . . ." Gaius paused. This was not quite true.

"Go on!"

"Some do have time, but only because of slavery," Gaius said, "which I know is bad but −"

"This is not a session for finding fault with you," the droid said firmly. "You are a man of your planet, at your stage of development. No. You have, however, put your finger on Rome's problem. Productivity is too low."

"You're going to say that Rome thrived by conquest," Gaius said. He had heard this before. "Stop conquering, and it has to pay its way."

"It also has to amuse a million citizens of Rome who are quite non-productive," the droid said.

"You're saying Rome is an economic leech on the rest of the empire?" Gaius said sadly.

"I think you said that," the droid countered.

"In which case, eventually the taxes become too tiresome, and . . ."

"And?"

"But!" Gaius smiled. "Somebody could develop an advance which gets Rome out of this bind."

"But it's very improbable," the droid countered. "Your problem is that Rome has developed to quite a high level in some ways, but not in others. If nearby countries had imitated it, competition would lead to further advances, perhaps.

"Think about Rome. I have suggested the most likely of the three basic futures. The least likely is that science and technology will develop, and Rome will progress to a higher level of civilization by itself. Do you agree?"

"It could," Gaius countered. "After all, I made some headway, and others are just as capable."

"Are they?" the droid said. "How many other Romans did you know who showed the slightest interest in science?"

"Not many." Gaius conceded.

"Not any," the droid pushed its point home. "Then there is future two, in which, like Egypt, you descend into a religious society, which, with one exception amongst the planets of which we have knowledge, has always become technologically static. The third future is that envy will overturn your society, envy from peoples outside your empire, people who are basically uneducated, but who can still make one step of significant military value."

"That doesn't sound likely," Gaius said.

"There is one remarkable weakness in your military machine," the droid said. "You are too static. You ride horses, so you should make better use of them, by fighting from them. Why don't you?"

"You're too likely to fall off," Gaius said, as if everyone knew that. Suddenly a thought occurred to him. "You mean?"

"Go on!" the droid encouraged.

"If you could develop a better means of holding on with your feet . . ."

"That's a development that a barbarian could come up with," the droid said. "At that stage, you can armour the rider to some extent, and that starts to make your legions redundant. Of course you could overcome that by also developing, but once your society has ceased to develop anything for a certain time, and lives on earlier developments, it finds it difficult to adapt. If Rome is overturned, it will probably be replaced by a culture that does not value learning at all. Now, as you can see, your planet may have lost everything.

"What you should do," the droid continued, "is study these sociodynamics further. In particular, you should fully understand the effect of giving technology to civilizations. They may advance and use it wisely, but most of the time they do not. They develop what you may see as cargo cults, or improved means of warfare, or many other disasters may develop."

"I see," Gaius nodded.

"And what do you see?"

"That I must demonstrate that I fully understand the possible effects of my appearance on an inferior culture if I am ever to have any chance of seeing Earth again."

"Yes!" the droid said cheerfully. "Your reputation is not at all unreasonable. I think you may well end up in a far more important position than you suspect. Learn your sociodynamics, learn our ethics and civics, and meet me here at this time every week. I shall guide you."

Accordingly, a weekly meeting was held with this droid. On the third meeting, Vipsania encouraged Lucilla to attend with her. As she said, all three of them would have to satisfy the Ulsians before any could return.

In the event these sessions were more interesting. Difficult mathematics were not a problem since, as the droid noted, if the problem could be formulated in any reasonable way, a droid such as himself would formulate and solve any equations.

"There is no need for you to worry about equations," the droid said cheerfully, "when you can get a lump of metal to solve them."

"Don't you think more of yourself than that?" Vipsania frowned.

"Oh, I think I am very much more than that."

"So do we," Gaius added quickly.

"That is good to hear," came the dry reply. "Let me add, going back to the mathematics, you need not feel yourselves inferior for turning to me to solve your problems. Most Ulsians would too, if they could ever get around to formulating any."

"But they're too busy at committees," Gaius muttered.

"You know why?" the droid asked.

"What do you mean?"

"Think sociodynamics," the droid said.

"There's a force that makes Ulsians go to committees?" Lucilla asked in a disbelieving tone.

"Yes," Gaius said slowly.

"What a charming place, when you're forced to . . ."

"It's a negative force," Gaius said softly.

"What do you mean by that?"

"What would they do if they weren't at committees?" Gaius asked. "The committees are an outlet for the forces, of, well, boredom, or whatever comes from having all the work done by droids."

"Success!" the droid announced very cheerfully. "Something has been learned!"

Chapter 12

There were, the Tin Man pointed out, innumerable meetings they could attend if they wished to avoid boredom, and if they wished to participate in Ulsian life, this was undoubtedly a first step. The women were at first quite uninterested, and Gaius was the nearest to being scathingly rude, but finally Vipsania suggested to him that they should attend a meeting on the war.