Saddam : His Rise and Fall (55 page)

Finally Saddam put in place arrangements for Iraqi loyalists to wage an insurgency campaign in the event of the regime suffering a conventional military defeat. Saddam was reported as having told a meeting of senior Baathists, “The battle with America is inevitable. What is of paramount importance is how to sustain the continuation of war after occupation.”
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To that end Saddam ordered that 30 percent of the country's weaponry be hidden at secret locations, which were to be marked by Iraqi Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) coordinates. These were to include guns, rocket-propelled grenades, antitank weapons and Strella surface-to-air missiles. The only people allowed to know the precise location of the arms caches were Saddam, Qusay, and Abdul Hamoud, Saddam's private secretary. Al-Dabbagh said that Saddam gave explicit orders that the location of the hidden arms should be
kept a strict secret. “Saddam said that if any of these weapons were found by ordinary Iraqi people then the head of the military unit would be hanged immediately.”

With both sides stepping up their military preparations, the main issue facing the United Nations was whether Saddam's noncompliance with Resolution 1441 justified launching military action, and if so was the Security Council obliged to pass a second resolution authorizing the use of force. By early 2003 the inspectors had been working in Iraq for several weeks and, although there was valid criticism about the level of Iraqi cooperation, the inspectors had been unable to uncover any significant evidence that Iraq was engaged in an illicit weapons program. In his State of the Union Address in January 2003, President Bush had stated that significant quantities of chemical and biological weapons were still unaccounted for in Iraq, and also claimed that Saddam was continuing with his efforts to develop nuclear weapons. In early February Colin Powell made a detailed presentation to the UN Security Council at which he spent an hour and a half playing tapes of intercepted Iraqi military communications, showing surveillance photographs of military sites, and recounting information from sources “who risked their lives to let the world know what Saddam Hussein is really up to.” The British government's contribution to the propaganda war was to publish a second intelligence dossier on Saddam's WMD threat, although this was quickly discredited when it emerged that the “intelligence” had in fact been copied off the Internet from the doctoral thesis of an obscure Californian postgraduate student.

Despite the concerted efforts undertaken by the British and American governments to highlight the threat posed by Saddam, they were unable to generate sufficient support at the Security Council for a second resolution that would sanction military action. The British and American position was not helped by Dr. Blix, who, despite his public criticisms of the Iraqis' lack of cooperation with the inspection teams, believed that the inspection process should be given more time, a view that was actively supported by France, Germany, and Russia. Dominique de Villepin, the French foreign minister, had let it be known that France would not support a second resolution that authorized military action. On February 14, when Dr. Blix provided the latest in a series of progress reports to the UN, he declared that Iraq's behavior had improved and, while there were many questions that still needed to be answered about Saddam's WMD capability, he was confident that these could
be resolved if the inspectors were given more time. Much to Washington's irritation, Blix was also openly scornful of Powell's claims about Iraq's WMD programs. Blix stated that the intelligence assumptions were dubious and that in one case—the claim that Iraq was trying to buy uranium from Africa—it was clearly based on forged documents. His colleague, Mohamed ElBaradei, who was investigating Iraq's nuclear program, was even more pointed. “We have to date found no evidence of nuclear activity in Iraq,” he said, and added that given a few more months he could wrap up his investigation.

Saddam was reaping the rewards of a skillfully choreographed game he was playing with the inspectors and world opinion. He delivered a steady stream of carefully timed concessions, providing extra ammunition for those who argued that the inspections were working. He agreed to allow the destruction of his al-Samoud missiles, whose range exceeded the permitted distance. He signed a presidential decree, outlawing weapons of mass destruction. He allowed the inspectors to use aerial reconnaissance, safe in the knowledge that his WMD stockpiles had been carefully concealed. He had even acquired a special ground-level radar system to check that the WMD had been properly buried in the desert.
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Saddam invited Tony Benn, the left-wing Labour politician, to Baghdad to interview him for British television in February 2003. Saddam categorically denied any of the allegations being made against him. Asked about Iraq's WMD programs, Saddam said, “There is only one truth and therefore I tell you that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction whatsoever.” And asked about Iraq's links with al-Qaeda, he said, “If we had a relationship with al-Qaeda and we believed in that relationship we wouldn't be ashamed to admit it. Therefore I would like to tell you directly that…we have no relationship with al-Qaeda.” Saddam's tactics proved highly successful in mobilizing public opinion, particularly in the West, against military action. On Saturday February 15 up to 100 million antiwar protestors converged on 600 cities in 60 countries. London saw the biggest demonstration in British history—up to two million people from all parts of the UK taking part in a “stop the war” rally.

Saddam might have been winning the diplomatic war, but it seemed there was little he could do to diminish the resolve of the British and American governments. By this time there were nearly a quarter of a million U.S. troops and British troops either in the Gulf or en route, and with summer approaching, Washington was keen to get on with the invasion. Commanders did not want
their men to have to fight in the searing heat of the Iraqi desert in heavy chemical protection suits if they could help it. On February 24 Britain, backed by the United States and Spain, tabled a draft second resolution stating simply that Iraq had failed to take the final chance that it had been granted. The resolution was almost dead in the water from the moment it was tabled as, of the fifteen members of the Security Council, France, Russia, China, Germany, and Syria had immediately indicated that they would vote against it. Even if the resolution's proposers were able to win over the votes of the other members—Angola, Cameroon, Guinea, Pakistan, Mexico, and Chile—the vote could be blocked by a veto from the Russian or French, who, as permanent members of the UN's Security Council, held the right to veto any resolution. Although both Washington and London embarked on a frantic round of diplomacy to win support for their resolution, the process was effectively made redundant on March 10 when Jacques Chirac, the French president, announced on television that France would definitely veto the resolution. “Regardless of the circumstances, France will vote no because it believes…there are no grounds for waging war.”

The French decision effectively signaled the end of the UN's role in dealing with Saddam, especially as the Russians also indicated that they, too, would apply their veto. A few days later Sir Jeremy Greenstock, the British ambassador to the United Nations, formally withdrew the draft second resolution. In President Bush's eyes, the UN had failed the test. The alternative was to look for a “coalition of the willing.” In a telephone conversation with Blair on March 13, Bush revealed his growing impatience with the delays caused by the UN. Bush pointed out that it was now six months since he had given the UN a chance to deal with Iraq, and he had long ago given up on the need for a second resolution. Consequently he had decided that the war to remove Saddam from office would begin the following week.

In a last-minute attempt to avoid hostilities, Russian president Vladimir Putin dispatched Yevgeny Primakov, the veteran Middle East diplomat, to Baghdad to persuade Saddam to step down. Primakov, who had known Saddam for many years and was guaranteed an audience with the Iraqi president, had made a similar mission prior to the Gulf War. He was received by Saddam at one of his presidential palaces. Primakov later recalled that he told Saddam, “If you love your country and love your people…and if you want to save your people from these sacrifices, you must leave your post of
President of Iraq.” Saddam listened to him, but remained silent for a while. When eventually he spoke he reminded Primakov that during the Gulf War the Russians had tried to talk him into taking action that would prevent war, but the allies still launched their attack. Primakov said that Saddam did not give him a direct answer. “He patted me on the shoulder and walked out.”
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The intelligence report that was handed to President Bush as he was conducting a meeting of his inner cabinet in Washington on the afternoon of Wednesday, March 19, was almost too good to be true. Just hours before the expiration of the forty-eight-hour deadline Bush had given Saddam to leave Iraq, George Tenet, the director of the CIA, informed Bush that he had recently received what was believed to be a trustworthy report from an agent on the ground that Saddam was staying at a bunker under a villa compound in the southern suburbs of Baghdad with his two sons and a number of other key aides. Saddam had already rejected Bush's ultimatum the previous day, appearing in full military dress on Iraqi television for the first time since the Gulf War, telling his Iraqi viewers, “God willing, victory will be yours and your enemy will be repelled because it is on the side of falsehood.” Now Bush had a one-of-a-kind opportunity to deal with Saddam once and for all. If the intelligence was correct, one well-aimed missile would take out Saddam and the entire leadership of the regime. “Let's do it,” Bush, the U.S. commander in chief, said to Tenet. At 8
P.M.
Washington time, at precisely the moment that the deadline expired for Saddam to leave the country, Bush gave the order to attack. The first air-raid sirens were heard in Baghdad half an hour later.

At 3:38
A.M.
local time in Baghdad, two F-117 Stealth bombers of the Eighth “Black Sheep” Fighter Squadron took off from their base in Kuwait. Each aircraft was loaded with two EGBU-27 bunker-buster bombs, each of which weighed two thousand pounds. The pilots of the aircraft had been
informed of the identity of their targets. Stealth fighters operate best under cover of darkness, and the pilots' main concern was to conduct their mission before the sun began to rise over Baghdad. Nearly two hours later, at 5:36
A.M.
, just before sunrise, the two bombers homed in on the building complex south of Baghdad, and dropped all four bombs on the target before returning safely to their base in Kuwait.
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The bombs devastated the complex, and the initial intelligence reports were highly encouraging. Agents working on the ground reported that the complex had been so badly damaged that it was unlikely that anyone inside at the moment the bombs hit their target could have survived. Satellite reconnaissance showed fleets of ambulances making their way to the scene, and analysts used to monitoring how the Iraqi emergency services reacted to various incidents concluded from the high priority being given to the bombing that senior members of the regime must be inside. British intelligence received conflicting reports: one said that Saddam had been killed outright, another that Saddam had been injured so badly that he required a number of blood transfusions, and that one or more of his sons had been killed.
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It was even claimed that a message had been intercepted from one of Saddam's commanders to Moscow pleading with the Russians to send one of their top surgeons to Baghdad to treat Saddam's life-threatening abdominal injuries.
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It is difficult to imagine a more dramatic opening to the military campaign known as Operation Iraqi Freedom than the direct assassination attempt that was made against the Iraqi dictator in his bunker. By launching what President Bush later termed a “decapitation strike” against Saddam and his inner circle, the White House issued a clear signal that the war was being fought for the sole purpose of removing Saddam Hussein and his Baathist regime from power. America's quarrel was not with the Iraqi people, but with the regime that had dominated the country for nearly thirty-five years. Throughout the military campaign U.S. and British commanders were under strict orders to keep civilian casualties to a minimum, and to concentrate their firepower on targets clearly associated with the regime, such as presidential palaces, command and control centers, Baath Party buildings, and military bases.

Any hope that Saddam had been taken out of the military equation quickly receded later that day when a videotape of the Iraqi leader was broadcast on television in Baghdad. Looking disheveled and wearing thick-rimmed reading glasses, Saddam delivered a defiant message to the outside world, but
made only a passing reference to the attack on his headquarters the previous night. “They will face bitter defeat,” he said in a heavy guttural accent. “The criminal little Bush [Saddam used this description to draw an unflattering comparison between the U.S. president and his father] has committed a crime against humanity. We pledge to you in our name and in the name of our leadership and in the name of our heroic army, in the name of Iraq, its civilization and its history, that we will fight the invaders.” Reading from his notes slowly and deliberately, he made a further appeal to the Iraqi people to confront the invading forces. “Draw your sword and be not afraid. Long live Jihad and long live Palestine.”

Saddam's unkempt appearance and rambling manner gave rise to all manner of speculative theories. It was suggested that the tape had been made prior to the attack as a precaution in case anything happened to him, and that the man in the camouflage fatigues and the black beret reading the statement was actually one of Saddam's many doubles. But after careful analysis by a team of CIA experts it was accepted that the tape was genuine, mainly because Saddam looked in such obvious discomfort as he read the script. One U.S. official said Saddam's bloated face was the result of the injuries he had received in the attack on his bunker. Given the great care Saddam normally took in his appearance, it was generally agreed that he would only have allowed himself to be filmed in his reading glasses if his circumstances permitted no other option.

Saddam's survival owed much to the network of heavily fortified bunkers that had been constructed by teams of German and Iraqi engineers during the war with Iran in the 1980s. Some of Saddam's bunkers had been designed by Karl Esser, whose grandmother Anna had helped design the bunker in which Adolf Hitler ended his life in Berlin in 1945. Esser, whose company was based in Munich, revealed that the walls of the main bunker in Baghdad had been built to a thickness of nine feet to withstand an atomic bomb of the size that destroyed Hiroshima during the Second World War. According to Esser, it would take the equivalent of sixteen Tomahawk cruise missiles landing one after the other at exactly the same spot to penetrate the steel-and-concrete protective wall. The electronics in the compound were protected by special insulation to prevent them from being destroyed or interrupted by graphite bombs. There was also an escape tunnel protected by steel doors weighing three tons each that led under the Tigris River.

Saddam had escaped the Allies' initial decapitation strike, but the attack
nevertheless had a profound impact on Saddam's ability to maintain control over Iraq's defensive operations. Saddam had gone into the conflict believing that, ultimately, he would prevail, as he had done during the many other crises that he had faced during the twenty-three years of his presidency. From his point of view, he had won the diplomatic contest against the Americans and the British. The unanimity of the UN Security Council when it passed Resolution 1441 the previous November had been severely fractured. Of the fifteen states that supported the new weapons inspection regime, only three—the United States, Britain, and Spain—supported military action, and of those only America and Britain were prepared to commit themselves fully to the military campaign. In Britain Tony Blair had to endure the indignity of a massive antiwar rebellion by 139 Labour backbenchers during his attempts to win parliamentary approval for military action. Saddam was well aware that the war by no means enjoyed universal popularity, and hoped that he would be able to exploit the international divisions as the war progressed. The big difference between the previous wars that he had fought and this one was that this time his enemies' main objective was to secure his removal from office.

In the opening salvoes of the war, apart from targeting Saddam himself, the Allies fired forty-four cruise missiles at key regime targets in Baghdad, inflicting severe damage on Saddam's command and control infrastructure. The “shock and awe” tactics, as they became known, were designed to use the Allies' overwhelming air superiority to devastating effect. At the outset of the war General Tommy Franks, the jug-eared Texan in overall command at U.S. Central Command (Centcom), promised that Operation Iraqi Freedom would be “characterized by shock, by surprise, by flexibility, by the employment of precise munitions on a scale never seen before, and by the application of overwhelming force.” Certainly, so far as Saddam was concerned, these tactics had an immediate effect on his ability to mastermind the war effort. Soon after the initial attack on Saddam's bunker, staff at Centcom headquarters, having strained, through every sophisticated eavesdropping device at their disposal, to monitor the Iraqi dictator's movements and behavior, came to the conclusion that Saddam had simply disappeared from view. Whatever else Saddam did after that night, he was no longer able to issue orders through Iraq's established communications networks. So far as Centcom commanders were concerned, Saddam ceased to be militarily relevant after the first night of hostilities.
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Operation Iraqi Freedom imitated a pattern similar to that established at the start of Operation Desert Storm twelve years previously, the key difference being that the devastating aerial bombardment was accompanied by a simultaneous ground invasion from the south. Vital Iraqi targets were subjected to a massive aerial bombardment, including army units that had been deployed at key strategic locations throughout the country to tackle the invaders. Compared with the firepower available to the Americans and British, the ill-equipped Iraqi troops were in no position to put up any serious resistance, and as the Allies launched their main ground offensive from Kuwait across Iraq's southern border, they were quickly able to overcome the Iraqi defenses, even though there were areas where some Iraqi units made a heroic effort to withstand the enemy advance. By the second day British Royal Marines had managed to capture the strategically important port of Umm Qasr, at the head of the Shatt al-Arab River, leaving the way open for a direct assault on Basra, Iraq's second largest city. To facilitate the Allies' operational effectiveness, military officials had agreed that the British should be given responsibility for capturing and securing Basra and the surrounding area while the Americans, with their vastly superior strength and firepower, would battle to take control of the rest of the country, including the capital Baghdad. As the British fought to establish control over the main approaches to Basra, the Americans swept north toward Nasiriyah. In fact the American advance was so rapid that by the end of the first week U.S. forces had reached the outskirts of Baghdad. The speed of the advance obliged U.S. commanders to order a temporary halt to allow reinforcements and supplies to catch up.

Although Saddam was no longer in a position to direct Iraqi resistance to the invasion, he was still able to follow developments on the battlefield and to keep in touch with his senior aides in Baghdad. After the opening night attack on his bunker Saddam had resumed his peripatetic existence of moving from one safe house to another, accompanied only by a few bodyguards and occasionally by either Uday or Qusay. Just as he had done during the Gulf War, Saddam traveled in ordinary civilian cars, and not even his closest advisers would know where he was staying from one night to the next. The devastating attack on his bunker had demonstrated the effectiveness of the Americans' ability to track his movements. It also raised the question in his mind that there might be a spy operating in the senior ranks of the Baath Party who was providing the Allies with information about his movements and whereabouts.

If Saddam's own involvement in the conflict was impeded by the limits imposed on his movements, there were still a significant number of operational Baath Party loyalists to ensure that the plans drawn up by Saddam and Qusay for defending the regime were enforced. Once American and British troops had broken through Iraq's southern defenses, they were overwhelmed by the huge numbers of Iraqi military personnel offering to surrender. Having fought in two disastrous wars on behalf of Saddam, it soon became apparent that the majority of ordinary Iraqi soldiers—most of them unwilling conscripts—had no desire to fight another hopeless war on behalf of Saddam's morally bankrupt regime.

Prior to the war American and British politicians had predicted that the Iraqi people would rise up and greet them as liberators once the military offensive commenced. In many respects this was more wishful thinking than a realistic expectation, particularly in southern Iraq where the predominant Shiite Muslim community had neither forgotten nor forgiven the shameful way that they were abandoned to Saddam's henchmen at the end of the Gulf War. Even so, Baathist loyalists were eager to stop both Iraqi soldiers from deserting and local Shiite leaders from encouraging a revolt against Saddam's rule. Before the war Saddam had taken the precaution of positioning trusted and well-armed Baathist officials at key Iraqi towns and cities. Apart from preventing civilians from surrendering, they were ordered to ensure that ordinary Iraqis were located close to potential military targets, such as Baath Party buildings and military compounds, so that in the event of Allied air strikes there would be high civilian casualties. If that were to happen, then Saddam believed that he could rely on the antiwar movement to mobilize an international outcry over the injustice of the war.

Baath officials and the Fedayeen were under instructions to maintain the campaign of intimidation against Iraqi civilians. Just as Vichy troops succeeded in terrorizing the French during the last days of the Second World War, so Saddam's execution squads were active throughout the country during the early stages of the Allied invasion, killing suspected traitors and deserters
pour encourager les autres
. In Basra seven Baath Party officials were executed in public for failing to set a good enough example in confronting the coalition forces, and a tribal leader was shot for suspected treachery. Baathist diehards opened fire with machine guns on hundreds of Iraqi civilians who had ventured outside the city walls in search of food. In the northern city of Kirkuk fifty-one Iraqis were reported to have been executed in the
last week of March on suspicion of having links with Iraqi opposition groups based in nearby Kurdistan. Even as Saddam's regime collapsed around him, there was no letup in the bloodletting.