Rendezvous with Destiny: Ronald Reagan and the Campaign that Changed America (32 page)

Bush was taking knocks from all sides. Conservative publications such as
Human Events
were leveling Bush. For months, Bill Loeb had been softening up Ambassador Bush in one long account after another in the
Union-Leader
. Lurid stories of power, access, and money used phrases like “Bush has been a loser,” “Texas oil millionaire,”
¹⁹
and Loeb's favorite standby, “elitist preppy.” Loeb also loved to torment Bush over the Trilateral Commission. In response, the Brahmin spluttered, “It just boggles my mind when I pick up newspapers and have allegations that I would belong to some conspiratorial organization. It simply isn't true.”
²⁰

Bush's campaign wasn't paranoid. Everybody on Earth—or at least in New Hampshire—
was
out to get him, or so it seemed to his demoralized supporters. On Monday, Bush said from Houston, “I have been under constant attack in New Hampshire.”
²¹
The Saturday before the primary, Loeb ran an editorial under the heading, “God Had Chosen Reagan to Lead Us.”
²²
Apparently even Heaven was now against Bush, at least according to Loeb.

On the day of the primary, Bush bought a front-page ad in Loeb's paper, trying to soften the hammering he'd been getting from the old yellow journalist. The
Union-Leader
was one of the few papers in America in which front-page ads could still be purchased. Bush attempted some levity: “Sure I have a sense of humor; Bill Loeb's editorials always give me a kick!” It was to no avail. That day three Loeb editorials were headlined “Only a Bush Leaguer,” “George Bush Is a Liberal,” and “George Can Return to China with Ron in the White House.”
²³
Five of the newspaper's front-page stories either assaulted Bush or praised Reagan. A flattering picture of Mrs. Reagan awarding a sled-dog championship also appeared on the front page.

J
IMMY
C
ARTER HAD NOT
put one wet foot in New Hampshire, while Ted Kennedy was sloshing around the state, grubbing for votes. In the warmth of the White House, the president entertained the American Olympic gold medal hockey team.

Joan Kennedy had gained a great deal of confidence on the hustings. Since beating her alcoholism she looked radiant and exuded confidence, even as her husband's campaign was about to be buried under Avalanche Carter. Unfortunately, Mrs. Kennedy was constantly peppered with questions about their personal life and she kept repeating, “The state of our marriage is excellent.”
²⁴

On Monday, February 25, the day before the vote, Reagan put in an eleven-hour day of campaigning and told supporters late that night, “I'm going to sleep well tonight.”
²⁵
He didn't take any chances, though, going out the next day and campaigning right down to the wire. He and Mrs. Reagan returned to their hotel late on Tuesday afternoon and Nancy wryly asked someone whether “they had a good remedy for a tummy ache” because she was headed to their room “to be nervous.”
²⁶

After months of surviving on caffeine, nicotine, and adrenaline, Jerry Carmen likewise had frayed nerves. “The next 22-year-old snot that comes up to me is going to get his face pushed in,” he stormed. He ordered a Reagan advance man out of his offices, threatening to call the police and the
Union-Leader
“to take the picture.”
²⁷
Carmen in calm moments was amiable. When riled, he swore like a longshoreman.

Most in the media thought the Reagans had good reason to be nervous and aggravated. Political observers felt that Bush still had the momentum and that the Nashua debate contretemps had come too late to help Reagan. Characteristic was the piece that E. J. Dionne of the
New York Times
wrote on primary day. Dionne praised Bush's ability to “transcend the factional fights that so roiled” the Republican Party in previous contests, and speculated that “the Reagan camp may be too late” in attempting to regain the offensive.
²⁸

Two of the few journalists who did see movement toward Reagan and away from Bush were Rowly Evans and Bob Novak in their syndicated column, published just one day before the primary. They had hired Carter's pollster, Pat Cad-dell, to do private polling for them. Caddell had gone into the town of Derry to sample GOP opinion. Bush was seen as just too “fuzzy” on the issues, while many liked Reagan and his positions. Of the sixty-two interviewed, fully thirty-nine planned on voting for the Gipper and only twelve for Bush.
²⁹

Some Bush aides fretted for the first time that the Nashua debate may have altered the dynamics of the race. Jim Baker second-guessed himself and said aloud that he wished Bush had met with the other candidates.

The first balloting on Tuesday, February 26, came in from Dixville Notch, whose two dozen cranky citizens voted—as was their peculiar custom every four years since 1960—beginning one minute after midnight. The tiny village was located high in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, only twenty miles from the Canadian border, and one had to question the sanity of these people going out in the subfreezing temperatures of midnight, deep into the February winter. For the other three years and 364 days, no one thought of Dixville Notch, but for one day—well, for a few hours on the morning of the New Hampshire primary—everybody following the results knew about Dixville Notch. Indeed, there were three times as many reporters on hand in the little town as there were people voting. Cameras whirred as the people went into the flag-covered voting booth in the Balsams Hotel.
³⁰

Reagan had lost to Ford in Dixville Notch four years earlier. When the ballots were counted this time around, Reagan initially won with six votes, followed by Bush with five votes, and Baker with four. Then a miscount was discovered and one vote was taken away from Reagan, so he and Bush tied in the metropolis of Dixville Notch.
³¹
When the reporters interrupted their late-night drinking in Manchester and Concord to learn of Bush's tie with Reagan there, it indicated to them that he hadn't been sufficiently damaged in Nashua and that the primary would be close, just as they had all written.

On the Democratic side, Carter won Dixville again, just as he had four years earlier, beating Kennedy in a landslide, three votes to two.
³²

O
N THE DAY OF
the New Hampshire primary, the ever-rumpled Carmen, who had slept only a few hours, said that the past week had been “the first good week we've had since Iowa,” but that “Bush is widely regarded to be slightly ahead of Reagan.” Indeed, yet another ballyhooed weekend poll had Bush up over Reagan by 6 points in the Granite State.
³³

Bush's people had to the end been pushing the envelope, suggesting to the media that when “the Ambassador” won New Hampshire, the other candidates, low on money, would collapse, including Reagan. More clear-thinking operatives not associated with any campaign said, “That's the kind of stuff, late at night, it's fun to drink and dream about.”
³⁴
Still, a new poll covering four southern states—South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Alabama—had Bush leading Reagan, 42–36, and reporters drew the obvious conclusions.
³⁵

Some Reagan boosters, fearing a loss in New Hampshire, were already making their rearguard, “we'll come back in the South and the West” argument they'd made four years earlier. But that was the last war, and the critical mistake too
many make in politics and warfare is to fight the previous war instead of the one in front of them.

Fortunately for the Reagan backers, Bush rushed out a radio commercial giving his side, yet again, of the Nashua story. The Reagan folks chuckled to themselves, as Bush was just keeping the story alive. They surmised that the contretemps must have hurt Bush worse than his people were letting on. Reaganites got a hold of the script for the commercial and distributed it far and wide. They were delighted to keep the story going.

O
UTSIDE OF
D
IXVILLE
N
OTCH
, the New Hampshire polls opened at 6
A.M.
and would not close until 7
P.M.
or 8
P.M.
, depending on the town. Though it was cold and windy, the skies were clear in most parts of the state. Turnout in the major cities started slowly, but picked up as the day went along.

New Hampshire had held its first primary in 1916, but it wasn't until 1952 that its presidential primary became the major proving ground for presidential candidates. Since then, no candidate had won the presidency without first winning New Hampshire's primary.
³⁶

While most towns still used paper ballots (aside from a few that were trying out a newfangled punch-style voting machine), a significant change had occurred since 1976. Previously, New Hampshire voters had picked the delegates associated with each candidate, but this time they voted for the candidates themselves.

The afternoon of the primary, the
Telegraph
ran a lead editorial praising not Reagan but John Sears for his “masterful stroke” at the debates. Calling him “skillful” and a “genius,” the paper noted that Sears was “extremely fortunate in having an easily programmable candidate.”
³⁷
To little surprise, the
Telegraph
endorsed Bush over Reagan.
³⁸

The paper also reported that GOP pollsters said the race would be tight. This was the common refrain coming from the media. The previous day the
Washington Post
ran a story headlined “Bush, Reagan Even as New Hampshire Finish Line Nears.”
³⁹
Even as of Tuesday afternoon the Associated Press was releasing stories quoting experts saying that the Republican race was too close to call.

It was not even close.

Reagan romped in New Hampshire. It was a completely unexpected blowout, 50 to 23 percent. Turnout was huge among Republicans: more than 145,000 people.
⁴⁰
In 1976, the turnout had been 111,000 for the GOP primary.

All were stunned at the margin of victory, including Reagan himself, his men, Bush, Bush's men, and the media. Dick Wirthlin's tracking polls had shown Reagan edging into a tie with Bush with less than a week to go and then going
into a slight lead over the weekend, but even the esteemed pollster was taken aback at the Reagan landslide.
⁴¹
Dixville Notch had created an aura of suspense for the day, but late-deciding GOP voters—who made up about a third of those who went to the polls—went heavily for Reagan, by better than a 5–1 margin. Reagan won in almost every category, except among the affluent; Bush took those voters. Reagan won almost 2–1 among those making less than $10,000 per year.
⁴²
He won among blue-collar voters, 51–20 percent, and among white-collar voters, 39–15. He won 2–1 in the rural areas and 3–1 in the towns.
⁴³
Reagan even got a respectful number of self-identified moderate voters; most of the Ford vote from 1976, which Bush had hoped to claim, went heavily for the Gipper. Reagan of course won among voters who believed the GOP should pursue a conservative course. Overall Reagan took all ten counties in New Hampshire and eleven of thirteen cities. Loeb delivered for Reagan as he got a skyscraping 75 percent of the Manchester vote. The Gipper also took Concord, seat of the state's small liberal populace. And as a bonus, he took Nashua.
⁴⁴
“Every single thing broke our way, everything,” Carmen fondly remembered.
⁴⁵

“This is the first and it sure is the best!” an ebullient Reagan told the overflow crowd at the Holiday Inn in Manchester. Even in victory, Carmen was unrelenting with Bush: “I think George Bush is mortally wounded and not just in New Hampshire.… The silk stocking got a setback tonight.” Hundreds had descended upon the overstuffed hotel. The
Washington Post
noted that the combined Lexington and Concord rooms were filled with “beer-drinking blue-collar supporters.”
⁴⁶
The victory rally was thick with smoke, heat, people, booze, polyester, and joy. The city's fire marshal had to close the hall, it was so crowded. Carmen had picked the too-small room without consulting with Reagan's advance men, Jim Hooley and Rick Ahearn, and they were fit to be tied. As a result, many of Reagan's supporters could not take part in the victory celebration.
⁴⁷

The Californian told his joyous supporters, “This is the way I want to continue campaigning, meeting the people of this country as I was able to meet you.”
⁴⁸
Reagan's supporters were even more jubilant than the Gipper himself. A truck driver, Ray Caron of Manchester, had driven Reagan voters to the polls all day. Caron said, “He's the only guy for us working people.”
⁴⁹

Reagan couldn't resist taking a poke at Bush, saying that “the man who was supposed to be an alternative … is not really the alternative at all.”
⁵⁰
Nancy was beaming as Ronnie told the crowd, “I suppose you suspect that we're very happy! Well, we are!”
⁵¹

Reagan got thirteen delegates in New Hampshire to Bush's five, Baker's two, and Anderson's two. In terms of overall delegates selected, Bush and Reagan were
tied at twenty-two apiece, but the win had been so dramatic and the comeback so complete that Reagan was firmly reinstalled as the frontrunner.
⁵²

As Reagan departed the room around 10:30, he and Mrs. Reagan happened upon a young woman who went batty when she saw the former movie star. “Oh, what a wonderful face! I wish now I hadn't voted for Carter.”
⁵³