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Authors: Michael Dobbs

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'Steady on, steady on. We've got a clear majority and won many more seats than the main opposition party. Not too bad after so many years in office
...'
He rehearsed the official creed.

'But not really full of promise for the next election, is it? Even some of your own supporters have described your programme for the next five years as being "more of the same". "Steady as she sinks", I think one of your opponents called it. And you may remember I came to one of your election rallies. You were speaking a great deal about new energy, new ideas and new enterprise. The whole thrust of what you were saying was that there would be change—and some new players.'

She paused, but Urquhart didn't seem keen to respond. 'Your own election address -
’I
have it here
...'
She fished a glossy folded leaflet from a wad of papers which were stuffed into her shoulder bag. Urquhart stared at her intently. 'It speaks about "the exciting years ahead". All this is about as exciting as last week's newspapers.'

‘I
think that's a little harsh

protested Urquhart, knowing he should be protesting more. He had no enthusiasm
for inventing excuses, and he suspected that it showed.

‘L
et me ask you bluntly, Mr Urquhart. Do you really think that this is the best the Prime Minister could do?'

Urquhart did not answer directly but raised his glass slowly to his lips, without for a moment taking his eyes off her. They both knew that they were role playing, but neither was yet clear quite how this theatre piece would finish.

Urquhart savoured the fine Islay malt around his tongue, and let it warm him inside before replying. 'Mattie, how on earth do you expect me to reply to a question like that? You know as Chief Whip I am totally loyal to the Prime Minister and his shuffle - or rather non-shuffle

There was an edge of sarcasm in his voice.

'Yes,
but what about Francis Urquhart, a man who is very ambitious for his party and is desperately anxious for its success. Does he support it?'

There was no reply.

'Mr Urquhart, in my piece tomorrow I shall faithfully record your public loyalty to the reshuffle and your justification of it. I know you would not wish to see anything appear in the press which even remotely hinted that you were not happy with events. But I remind you we are speaking on lobby terms. I sense that you are not content with what is happening. I want to know. You want to ensure that it doesn't get back to my colleagues, or to your colleagues, or become common Westminster gossip. I give you my word on that. This is just for me, because it might be important in the months ahead. And by the way, no one else knows I came to see you tonight

Mattie was offering a deal. In exchange for Urquhart's real views she would ensure that nothing she wrote could ever be traced back to its source.

U
rquhart toyed in his mind with a variety of stilettos, wondering which one to throw first. 'Very well, Mattie, let me explain the real story to you. It's really very simple. The Prime Minister has to keep the lid firmly closed on the pressure cooker in order to contain the ambition of some of his colleagues. Those ambitions have grown since the poor election result and, if he were to release the pressure now, there would be the danger of the entire Government getting plastered all over the kitchen ceiling.'

'Are you telling me that there is a lot of rivalry and dissent within the Cabinet?'

‘L
et me put it this way.' He paused to consider his words carefully before continuing in a slow, deliberate voice. 'Some elements of the Party are deeply distressed. They believed the PM came dangerously close to throwing away the last election, and they don't see him as having the stamina or authority to last all the way through for another four or five years. So they are
thinking
of what life might be like in another eighteen months or two years, and what position they want to be in if there happened to be a leadership race. The game has suddenly become a very different one since Thursday
and Henry Collingridge is no longer playing with a full team behind him. It could get very unsettling.'

'So why doesn't he get rid of the troublesome ones?'

'Because he can't risk having several former Cabinet Ministers rampaging all over the backbenches when he has got a majority of only 24 which could disappear at the first parliamentary cock-up. He has to keep everything as quiet and as low key as possible. He can't even move the Awkward Brigade to new Cabinet posts because every time you get a new Minister in a new Department they get a rush of enthusiasm and want to make their mark, while you gentlefolk of the press give them a honeymoon period and plenty of personal publicity. Their views suddenly take on a renewed importance for the leader writers, and all of a sudden we find that they are not simply doing their Ministerial jobs but also promoting themselves for a leadership race. The whole of Government business is thrown into chaos because everyone is looking over their shoulders at their colleagues rather than training their sights on the Opposition. Government becomes confused, the Prime Minister becomes even more unpopular - and suddenly we are confronted with a real leadership race.'

'So everyone simply has to remain where they are. Do you think that's a sound strategy?'

He took a deep mouthful of whisky. 'If I were the captain of the
Titanic
and I saw a bloody great iceberg dead ahead, I don't think I would be saying "steady as she goes". I'd want a change of course.'

Did you tell this to the Prime Minister this afternoon?'

'Mattie, you take me too far!' he chuckled in protest. 'While I respect your professional integrity and I am thoroughly enjoying our conversation, I think I would be offering you too much temptation if I started divulging the details of private discussions. That's a shooting offence!'

Mattie had not moved from the edge of her chair. She understood very clearly the significance of his words, and was determined to gather more. 'Well, let me ask you about Lord Williams. He was with the PM an extraordinarily long time this 'afternoon if all they were deciding was to do nothing

Urquhart had been toying with this specific stiletto for several minutes. Now he threw it with deadly accuracy. 'Have you heard the phrase, "Beware of an old man in a hurry"?'

‘Y
ou surely can't imagine that he believes he could become Party Leader. Not from the Lords!'

'No, even he's not that egotistical. But he still has a couple of years left, and like so many elder statesmen would like to make sure that the leadership found its way into suitable hands

'Whose hands?'

If not him, then one of his acolytes

'Like who?'

'Do you have no thoughts of your own?' 'You mean Michael Samuel

Urquhart smiled as he heard the stiletto thud home.
‘I
think I've said enough. We must call this conversation to a halt

Mattie nodded reluctantly, and remained silent, pondering the pieces of the political jigsaw which now lay in front of her. Without further discussion Urquhart guided his guest downstairs, and they were shaking hands by the front door before she spoke again.

‘Y
ou've been very helpful, Mr Urquhart But one last question. If there were a leadership election, would you be part of it?'

'Good night, Mattie

Urquhart said, and closed the front door firmly behind her.

Daily Telegraph.
Monday 14th June. Page 1.

In a move which startled most observers, the Prime Minister yesterday announced that there were to be no immediate Cabinet changes following the election. After conferring for several hours with his Party

Chairman, Lord Williams, and also with the Chief Whip Francis Urquhart, Mr Collingridge issued a 'steady as she goes' message to his Party.

Downing Street sources said it was intended that the Government would be able to pursue their programme as quickly and as effectively as possible by leaving all Cabinet Ministers in place. However, senior Westminster sources last night expressed astonishment at the decision. It was seen in some quarters as betraying the weakness of the Prime Minister's position after the decimation of his parliamentary majority and criticisms of what was seen as a lacklustre campaign, for which both he and the Party Chairman are being blamed.

There was speculation last night that the Prime Minister was unlikely to fight another election, and that some senior Ministers were already manoeuvring for position in the event of an early leadership contest. One Cabinet Minister compared the Prime Minister to 'the captain of the
Titanic
as it was entering the ice pack'.

The decision not to make any Cabinet changes, the first time since the war that an election has not been followed by some senior reshuffle, was interpreted as being the most effective way for Collingridge to keep the simmering rivalries of some of his Cabinet colleagues under control.

Last night, the Chief Whip defended the decision as being 'the best means of getting on with the job'. However, speculation is already beginning as to who might be the likely contenders in the event of a leadership race.

Lord Williams described any suggestion of an imminent leadership election as 'nonsense'. He said, 'The Prime Minister has gained for the Party an historic fourth election victory, and we are in excellent shape.' However, the position of the Party

Chairman would be crucial during a leadership race, and Williams is known to be very close to Michael Samuel, the Environment Secretary, who could be one of the contenders.

Opposition spokesmen were quick to pounce on what they saw as indecisiveness on the part of the Prime Minister. Claiming that he had been greatly heartened by the gains his Party had made last Thursday, the Opposition Leader said: The fires of discontent are glowing within the Government. I don't think Mr Collingridge has the strength or the support to put them out.
I am already looking forward to the next election
...'

TUESDAY 22
nd
JUNE

Roger O'Neill sat back comfortably in the arms of one of the large leather armchairs which surround the snooker tables in the back room at White's Club. When the tables are not in use, the seats which are spread around the games room offer a quiet and confidential spot for members to take their guests. He had been delighted, and not a little astonished, to receive the invitation from the Chief Whip to dine at his prestigious club in St James's. Urquhart had never shown much warmth towards O'Neill in the past, and O'Neill had been more used to a cold and condescending gaze down Urquhart's aquiline nose, rather like a well-fed bird eyeing future prey, than an invitation 'to celebrate the splendid work which you have done for us all throughout the campaign'.

O'Neill, hypertense as always, had tried to calm his nerves with a couple of mighty vodka-tonics before he arrived, but they had not been necessary. Urquhart's cosy manner, two bottles of Chateau Talbot '78 and the large cognacs which Urquhart was even now ordering from the bar suggested that O'Neill had at last been able to break through the barriers which some traditionalists within the party leadership still erected against the likes of O'Neill and his 'marketing johnnies with their vulgar cars'. Even as O'Neill derided the traditionalists and their narrow jealousies, he desperately wanted their acceptance, and now he felt guilty for having misjudged Urquhart so badly. He beamed broadly as his host returned from the bar with two crystal glasses on a silver tray. O'Neill stubbed out his cigarette in preparation for the Havana which he hoped would be following.

'Tell me, Roger, what are your plans now the election is over? Are you going to stay on with the Party? We can't afford to lose good men like you.'

O'Neill flashed yet another winning smile and assured his host that he would stay on as long as the Prime Minister wanted him.

'But how can you afford to, Roger? May I be brutally honest with you? I know just how little the Party pays its employees, and money is always so short after an election. It's going to be tough for the next couple of years. Your salary will probably get frozen and your budget cut. Aren't you tempted by some of the more handsome offers you must be getting from outside?'

'Well, it's not always easy, Francis, as you've already guessed. It's not so much the salary, you understand. I work in politics because I'm fascinated by it and love to play a part. But it would be a tragedy if the budget gets cut.'

His smile faded as he contemplated the prospect and began to fidget nervously with his glass. 'We should start working for the next election now, not in three years' time when it may be too late. Particularly with all these rumours flooding around about splits within the Party and who is to blame for the loss of seats. We need some strong and positive publicity, and I need a budget to create it.'

'The Chairman receptive to all this?' Urquhart raised an enquiring eyebrow.

'Are Chairmen ever?'

'Perhaps, Roger, there is something I can do about that. I would like to be able to help you very much, because I think you've done such excellent work. Ill go in to bat with the Chairman about your budget, if you want. But there is something I must ask you first. And I must be blunt.'

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