El cisne negro (68 page)

Stiglitz, Loseph,
Whither Socialism,
Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 1994.

Strawson, Galen,
Mental Reality,
Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 1994 (trad, cast.:
La realidad mental,
Barcelona, Prensa Ibérica, 1997).

—, «
Against Narrativity»
, Ratio, n° 17, 2004, págs. 428-452.

Strogatz, Steven H., Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, with Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering,
Reading, Mass., Addison-Wesley, 1994.

—, «
Exploring Complex Networks»
, Nature, n° 410, 2001, págs. 268-276.

—, Sync: How Order Emerges from Chaos in the Universe, Nature, and Daily Life, Nueva York, Hyperion, 2003.

Suantak, L., F. Bolger y W R. Ferrell, «
The Hard-easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 67,1996, págs. 201-221.

Suddendorf, Thomas, «
Enhanced: Foresight and Evolution of the Human Mind»
, Science, vol. 312, n° 5.776, 2006, págs. 1.006-1.007.

Sullivan, R., A. Timmermann y H. White, «
Data-snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap»
, journal of Finance, n° 54, 1999, págs. 1.647-1.692.

Sunstein, Cass R., Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2002 (trad, cast.:
Riesgo y razón: seguridad, ley y medio ambiente, 2006).

Surowiecky, James,
The Wisdom of Crowds,
Nueva York, Doubleday, 2004.

Sushil, Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer e Ivo Welch, «
A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades
v>, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 100, n° 5, 1992, págs. 992-1.026.

Sutton, J., «
Gibrat's Lcgacy»
, Journal of Economic Literature, n° 35, 1997, págs. 40-59.

Swanson, D. R, «
Fish Oil, Raynaud's Syndrome and Undiscovered Public Knowledge»
, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, vol. 30, n° 1, 1986a, págs. 7-18.

—, «
Undiscovered Public Knowledge»
, Library Quarterly, n° 56, 1986b, págs. 103-118.

—, «
Two Medical Literatures That Are Logically but Not Bibliographically Connected»
, Journal ofthe American Society for Information Science, n° 38, 1987, págs. 228-233.

Swets, J. A., R. M. Dawes y J. Monahan, «
Better Decisions Through Science»
,

Scientific American, octubre de 2000a, págs. 82-87—, «Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions», Psychological Science in the Public Interest, n° 1, 2000b, págs. 1-26.

Szenberg, Michael (comp.),
Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1992.

Tabor,
M.,
Chaos and Integrability in Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction,
Nueva
York,
Wiley, 1989.

Taine, Hippolyte Adolphe,
Les philosophes classiques du XIXe siècle en France
(1868), 9
^a
éd., Paris, Hachette, 1905.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
,
Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options
,
Nueva York, Wiley, 1997.

—,
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
, Nueva York, Random House, 2004a (trad, cast.: ¿Existe la suerte?Engañados por el azar: el papel oculto de la suerte en la vida y en los negocios, Madrid, Paraninfo, 2006).

—, «
These Extreme Exceptions of Commodity Derivatives»
, en Helyette Geman, Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Nueva York, Wiley, 2004b.

—, «
Bleed or Blowup: What Does Empirical Psychology Tell Us About the Preference for Negative Skewness?»
, Journal of Behavioral Finance, vol. 5, n° 1, 2004c, págs. 2-7.

—, «
The Black Swan: Why Don't We Learn That We Don't Learn?»
, documento presentado en el United States Department of Defense Highland Forum, verano de 2004A

—, «
Roots of Unfairness
», Literary
Research/Recherche Littéraire,
vol. 21, n° 41-42, 2004e, págs. 241-254.

—, «
On Skewness in Investment Choices»
, Greenwich
Roundtable
Quarterly, n°2, 2004E

—, «
Fat Tails, Asymmetric Knowledge, and Decision Making: Essay in Honor of Benoît Mandelbrot's 80th Birthday»
, Technical paper series, Wilmott, marzo de 2005, págs. 56-59.

—, «
Homo Ludens and Homo Economicus»
, reseña del libro de Aaron Brown The Poker Face ofWall Street, Nueva York, Wiley, 2006a.

—, «
On Forecasting
», en John Brockman (comp.), In What We Believe But Cannot Prove: Todays Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty,
Nueva York, Harper Perennial, 2006b.

—, «
Scale Invariance in Practice: Some Patches and Workable Fixes»
, publicación preliminar, 2007.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas y Avital Pilpel, «
I problemi epistemologici del risk management
», en DanielePace (comp.), Economía
del rischio:
Antología di
scrittisu rischio e decisione economica,
Milán, Giufïrè, 2004.

Tashman, Leonard J., «
Out of Sample Tests of Forecasting Accuracy: An Analysis and Review»
, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 16, n° 4, 2000, págs. 437-450.

Teigen, K, H., «
Overestimation of Subjective Probabilities»
, Scandinavian
Journal
of Psychology, n° 15, 1974, págs. 56-62.

Terracciano, A. y otros, «
National Character Does Not Reflect Mean Personality Traits»
, Science, n° 310, 2005, pig. 96,

Tetlock, Philip E., «
Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?»
, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 43, n° 2, 1999, págs. 335-366.

—, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is Iti How Can We Know?,
Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2005.

Thaler, Richard, «
Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice»
, Marketing Science, vol. 4, n° 3, 1985, págs. 199-214.

Thom, René,
Paraboles et
catastrophes,
París, Champs Flammarion, 1980 (trad, cast.:
Parábolas y catástrofes,
Barcelona, Tusquets, 1985).

—,
Prédire n'est pas expliquer,
París, Champs Flammarion, 1993.

Thorley, «
Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume»
, documento de trabajo, Santa Clara University, 1999.

Tilly, Charles,
Why? What Happens When People Give Reasons and Why
, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2006.

Tinbergen, N., «
On Aims and Methods in Ethology»
, Zeitschrififur Tierpsychologie, n° 20, 1963, págs. 410-433.

—, «
On War and Peace in Animals and Man: An Ethologists Approach to the Biology of Aggression»
, Science, n° 160, 1968, págs. 1.411-1.418.

Tobin, James, «
Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk»
, Review of Economic Studies, n° 67, 1958, págs. 65-86.

Triantis, Alexander J. y James E. Hodder, «
Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option»
, Journal of Finance, vol. 45, n° 2, 1990, págs. 549-564.

Trìvers,
Robert,
Natural Selection and Social Theory: Selected Papers of Robert Trivers,
Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002.

Turner, Mark,
The Literary Mind,
Nueva York, Oxford University Press, 1996.

Tversky, A. y D. Kahneman, «
Belief in the Law of Small Numbers»
, Psychology Bulletin, vol. 76, n° 2, 1971, págs. 105-110.

—, «
Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability»
, Cognitive Psychology, n° 5, 1973, págs. 207-232.

—, «
Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases»
, Science, n° 185, 1974, págs. 1.124-1.131.

—, «
Evidential Impact of Base-Rates»
, en D. Kahneman, P. Slovic y A. Tversky (comps.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1982.

—, «
Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment»
, Psychological Review, n° 90, 1983, págs. 293-315.

—, «
Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty»
, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, n° 5, 1992, págs. 297-323.

Tversky, A. y D. J. Koehler, «
Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability»
, Psychological Review, n° 101, 1994, págs. 547-567.

Tyszka, T. y P. Zielonka, «
Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters»
, Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, vol. 3, n° 3, 2002, págs. 152-160.

Uglow, Jenny, The Lunar Men: Five Friends Whose Curiosity Changed the World,
Nueva York, Farrar, Straus
y
Giroux, 2003.

Vale, Nilton Bezerra do, Losé Delfino y Lucio Flávio Bezerra do Vale, «
Serendipity in Medicine and Anesthesiology»
, Revista Brasileira de
Anestesiología,
vol. 55, n° 2, 2005, págs. 224-249.

Van Tongeren, Paul, «
Nietzsche's Greek Measure»
, Journal of Nietzsche Studies, n° 24, 2002, pág. 5.

Vandenbroucke, J. P, «
Evidence-Based Medicine and "Medicine d'Observation"»
, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 49, n° 12, 1996, págs. 1.3351.338.

Varela, Francisco,
Invitation
aux
sciences cognitives, Paris, Champs Flammarion, 1988.

Varían, Hal R., «Differences of Opinion in Financial Markets», en Courtenay C. Stone (comp.), Financial Risk: Theory Evidence and Implications: Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Economie Policy Confederal of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. louis
, Boston, Kitiwer Academic Publishers, 1989.

Véhel,
Jacques
Lévy y
Christian Walter,
Les marchés fractals: Efficience, ruptures, et tendances sur les marchés financiers,
París,
PUF,
2002.

Veyne, Paul, Comment on écrit l'histoire,
Paris, Editions
du
Seuil,
1971 (trad, cast.:
Cómo se escribe la historia: Foucault revoluciona la historia,
Madrid,
Alianza, 1994).

—,
LEmpire
gréco-romain,
París, Editions du Seuil, 2005.

Vogelstein, Bert, David Lane y Arnold J. Levine, «
Surfing the P53 Network»
, Nature, n° 408, 2000, págs. 307-310.

Voit, Johannes,
The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets
, Heidelberg, Springer, 2001.

Von Mises, R.,
Wabrscheinlichkeh, Statistik undWahrheit
, Berlin, Springer, 1928.

Von Plato, Jan,
Creating Modern Probability,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994.

Von Winterfeldt, D. y W. Edwards,
Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research,
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1986.

Wagenaar, Willern y Gideon B. Keren, «
Calibration of Probability Assessments by Professional Blackjack Dealers, Statistical Experts, and Lay People»
, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, n° 36, 1985, págs, 406-416.

—, «
Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Racings ofExperts»
, en Erik Holinagel, Giuseppe Mancini y David D. Woods (comps.), Intelligent Design Support in Process Environments, Berlin, Springer, 1986.

Waller, John, Fabulous Science: Fact and Fiction in the History of Scientific Discovery,
Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002.

Wallerstein, Immanuel, «
Braudel and Interscience: A Preacher to Empty Pews?»
, documento presentado en las 5th Journées Braudeliennes, Binghamton, NY, Binghamton University, 1999.

Wallsten, T. S., D. V. Budescu, I. Erev y A. Diederich, «Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimâtes», Journal
of Behavioral Decision Making,
n° 10, 1997, págs. 243-268.

Wason, P. C., «
On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task»
, Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, n° 12, I960, págs. 129-140.

Watts, D. J., Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age,
Nueva York, W. W. Norton and Company, 2003 (trad, cast.:
Seis grados de separación: la ciencia de las redes en la era del acceso,
Barcelona, Paidós, 2006).

Watts, D. J. y S. H. Strogatz, «
Collective Dynamics of "Small-world" Networks»
, Nature, n° 393, 1998, págs. 440-442.

Watts, Duncan, «
A Simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks»
, Proceedings of the
National
Academy of Sciences, vol. 99, n° 9, 2002, págs. 5.766-5.771.

Wegner, Daniel M.,
The Illusion of Conscious Will,
Cambridge, Mass., The MIT Press, 2002.

Weinberg, Steven, «
Facing Up: Science and Its Cultural Adversaries»
, documento de trabajo, Harvard University, 2001.

Weintraub, Roy E., How Economics Became a Mathematical Science, Durham, N.C., Duke University Press, 2002.

Wells, G. L. y J. H. Harvey, «
Do People Use Consensus Information in Making Causal Attributions?»
, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, n° 35, 1977, págs. 279-293.

Weron, R., «
Levy-Stable Distributions Revisited: Tail Index > 2 Does Not Exclude the Levy-Stable Regime»
, International Journal of Modern Physics, vol. 12, n° 2, 2001, págs. 209-223,

Wheatcroft, Andrew, Infidels: A History of Conflict Between Christendom and Islam
, Nueva "fork, Random House, 2003.

White, John,
Rejection,
Reading, Mass., Addison-Wesley, 1982.

Whitehead, Alfred North,
Science and the Modern World,
Nueva York, The Free Press, 1925.

Williams, Mark A., Simon A. Moss, John L. Bradshaw y Nicole J. Rinehart, «
Brief Report: Random Number Generation in Autism»
, Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, vol. 32, n° 1, 2002, pigs. 43-47.

Williams, Robert J. y Dennis Connolly, «
Does Learning About the Mathematics of Gambling Change Gambling Behavior?»
, Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, vol. 20, n° 1, 2006, pags. 62-68.