Code Word: Paternity, A Presidential Thriller (6 page)

Chapter 9

 
“Moving right along!” said Dorn, attempting to
lighten the mood. “Aaron, what are your trawls catching?”

Looking, as always, like his valet had
just finished knotting his tie, Director of National Intelligence Hendricks
cleared his throat and began speaking. He seemed to swell, reminding Rick of
one of Maryland’s
red-winged blackbirds in mating season.

“I believe the most significant matter
right now is that no organization has claimed responsibility. The chatter from
low levels of al-Qaeda and Hezbollah is of course elation, but also puzzlement.
Whoever did this is now the biggest dog on the block and must be bursting to
strut. We’re pretty sure it will come out, but it hasn’t yet.”

“What does
Mossad think?” interjected Martin.

Hendricks scowled. “They have no leads
either! Mordacai’s hunch is that the longer there’s no claim, the more it
points to Hezbollah, because they have tight discipline. He doesn’t think
al-Qaeda or others could keep the secret very long.”

 
“OK,” replied Martin. “But as for Mossad’s
theory—remember, Israel
would love to tie this can to Iran’s
tail.”
 

Because he knew Hendricks would never go
beyond generalities in this large group, Rick wanted to move on. “So Ed, what
can you tell us? Any odds that American terrorists did this?”

Attorney General Ed McDonnell stiffened,
struggling to appear cool. He was responsible for the FBI, whose job it was to
find and thwart domestic terrorists. Although they had failed, the FBI director
assured him they hadn’t missed something as glaring as flight lessons.
McDonnell prayed he was right.

He gulped and said, “Mr. President, the
FBI, in close cooperation with the intelligence community, is reviewing the
passenger list for every airline arrival in Las Vegas within the past thirty days, and
the same with the backup copies of all hotel records. They are monitoring all
Internet social media for chatter bearing on the bomber’s identity, such as a
martyr’s farewell. They’re examining the recent activities of every extremist
organization in the country, whatever their credo, and locating all their known
members.

“In addition—”
   

The president held up his hand to end the
man’s agony—it was clear he had no leads. “Ed, I have no doubt you and your
team are doing absolutely everything to get a handle on the bomber! Keep at it
and something will break our way.”

Poor
bastard! Ed doesn’t know about Paternity, and I’m not ready tell him. At least
I can cut him down from the gallows.

Dorn nodded to Secretary of State Anne
Battista. In her official photo there is firmness in her expression that says
“I’ve given up a lot to get here and now that I have, I’m going to make my
mark.” Her blonde hair, just brushing her shoulders, had been carefully tended
to eliminate gray, but she made no effort to disguise the beginning of neck sag
or deep grooves that appeared in her lower cheeks when her face was animated.

Speaking, Battista swept her eyes around
the table. “There are widespread expressions of shock, sympathy, and support,
with some pointed exceptions. We’re not hearing much out of the Middle East, except of course from the Israelis. It’s as
if the Arabs and the Persians are waiting for another shoe to drop. NATO’s
sympathetic but frightened.

 
“As most of you know, President Volkov called
President Martin on the Hotline, and they exchanged reassurances. The Russians
and the Chinese have made statements condemning the attack. The Russian statement
included the threat to retaliate—quote—with the full, repeat the full,
resources of the state if terrorists should be so foolish as to attack Russia in this
manner, unquote.”

“If you nuke me, I’ll nuke you,” said the
treasury secretary.

“Obviously,” said Martin, glaring as if
to say, you interrupted for
that
?

He looked back to the secretary of state.
“Anne, please give us a thumbnail of Asia and
what you’re hearing from the UN.”

“Well, the Chinese, as I said, condemned
the attack, and I had a supportive call from my Chinese counterp
art, Jia . . .
something I thought was odd: he said
he assumed we’d know who did it soon enough. I said I agreed, but, frankly, I
don’t see how.” She shrugged.

Paternity!
Does Jia know about Paternity?
The question speared Rick’s stomach.

Chapter 10

Martin locked eyes with Easterly, who
understood the president’s glance and remained silent.

Oblivious, Battista continued. “I’d say
the Japanese government is very, very uneasy. Part of it is that some Japanese
think this is karmic payback for Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But the heart
of it is that they realize how we handle this determines whether our nuclear
umbrella over Japan
actually protects them. North Korea
has nuclear weapons and missiles with plenty of range to reach Japan. If our
pledge to protect Tokyo loses credibility in Pyongyang . . .”

She paused, sipping water, then resumed:
“Seoul of
course has a similar worry but is unwilling to say so. The Indians and the
Pakistanis say they’re shocked and horrified and will help us find the
perpetrators. The Indians hint delicately that Pakistani extremists might have
some connection. The Paks are clearly worried that they might be implicated,
because of A. Q. Kahn and because al-Qaeda’s leadership is somewhere in Waziristan. Australia wants to know how to
help. The Indonesians have said nothing official so far.”

Nodding toward the image of the UN
ambassador on the teleconference screen, she continued: “Oscar
tells me that during
this morning’s emergency
meeting of the Security Council all members expressed sympathy and support. The
council unanimously approved a resolution calling on all UN members to render
what assistance they can.”

“What would you
add, Oscar?” said Martin.

All looked at the video screen as
Ambassador Neumann responded. “Among the member nations at large—and UN
officials, including the secretary-general—I feel an atmosphere of watchful
waiting. Will there be another bomb? What will the United States do? Is this the first
domino in a rapid U.S.
decline? What about countries allied with us—are they on the terrorists’ target
list? What about countries we’ve flagged as sponsors of terrorism—are they on
our
target list? What are we going to
ask the UN to do? And last but not least, how much danger are all of
them
in at the UN complex here in New York?”

“Bottom line,” said Battista, “we should
appear injured but unafraid and angry but controlled. A lot of people,
including many Americans, now believe Bush didn’t really give diplomacy a
chance after Nine-eleven, Mr. President. Your administration can do better.”

Eric Easterly considered her words with
invisible amusement.
Right, Anne,
he
thought
, and you just happen to be in
charge of the cabinet department that will have the lead in ‘doing better.’
He saw her young aide scribbling furiously, making sure to record those words
for her boss’ memoir and for her own buddies’ admiration.

Suddenly, Rick felt overwhelmed, drowning
in information. He kicked hard for shore. “Thanks, Anne and Oscar,” he said
briskly. “The UN is going to be an important part of our response.”

Catching the president’s mood, Dorn said,
“OK, Vijay, bring us up to date on the economic impacts and what you’re doing.”

Vijay Ramanna immediately began to speak.
A former Federal Reserve governor, he had been a surprise choice, the first
Indian-American to serve in a cabinet, and Martin had been pleased with the
buzz.

Leaning forward, Ramanna spoke more
loudly than necessary. “Mr. President, the Fed chairman agrees with me that the
stock markets and commodity exchanges should stay closed for a few days in
order to prevent panic selling. There’s the Nine-
eleven
precedent
, so we’re not
getting too much push
back.
But, obviously, we can’t keep the doors shut very long, because that would
create an even bigger panic. We’re watching liquidity closely, but for now we
believe it’s best to leave banks open.”

Martin rubbed tired eyes, trying to
relieve the gritty sensation signaling fatigue.

Ramanna continued: “Right after your
address last night, I took action! Treasury is reaching out to our
international counterparts and also requesting that all major banking centers
report large transactions in which the amounts are unusual.
 
If the bombers bought that weapon, there may
be a money trail leading to the seller or the terrorists.”

“Vijay, how far back are you looking?”
said Vice President Griffith.

“First cut is six months, Mr. Vice
President. That’s just my guess. We’ll adjust when we have more information. My
hunch is that terrorists would use the bomb as soon as possible for their own
security reasons.”

“What does
Justice think, Ed?” said Martin.

“That time window is as good a place to
start as any. I agree with Vijay’s hunch. We’re working with CIA now to locate
known bagmen for al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. At some point renditions
may make sense, so we can question them.”

“Ed, that comes to the NSC before you
grab anyone. I’m probably going to need a lot of convincing. This
administration is
not
going to
waterboard anybody, so I’m not sure that the gain from having them in custody
would be worth the grief we’d get for snatching them.”

Martin was watching th
e vice president’s
reaction, but Griffith’s face remained neutral.
His presence on the ticket was crucial to me
in Pennsylvania and several
other states
,
thought Rick,
but he’s often wrong on
civil liberties and
national security. I’ll bet
he’ll come to me on this before long.

Three hours into the meeting, Rick was
more than ready for a break. “Thanks, Vijay. He glanced at his watch.

“John, are we
done?”

“Yes, Mr.
President.”

Martin rose,
then paused. “No, don’t get up. It’s too crowded in here for that.” The
president examined their faces gravely before continuing: “This is going to
take a long time. Pace yourselves and your people. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
Once in awhile, go home in time to hug your kids and your spouses.

Chapter 11

After a one-hour break, Rick eased into
his chair and looked around the room, less crowded this time. Returning his
gaze, or fiddling with papers and smart phones, were the members of the
National Security Council (NSC), plus CIA Director Scott Hitzleberger and
National Security Advisor John Dorn.

Martin spoke: “The purpose of this
meeting is to discuss a CIA program, the Paternity Project, which only a few
people know about.”
Maybe that will fuzz
it up enough to keep Bruce and Anne from knowing immediately that they’ve been
kept out,
he thought.
“
This is a
technical program—something called nuclear forensics—which could reveal the
origin of the Las Vegas
bomb. Over to you, Aaron and Scott.”

Hendricks began to speak, and Rick let
his mind wander while the DNI repeated what he’d heard from him in January. In
a brief meeting just before this one, Hendricks had listened as Hitzleberger
reported that initial analysis pointed to North Korea. Martin told them not
to reveal it.

So
we are close to having scientific information fingering the country that
enabled terrorists to destroy Las
Vegas,
Rick
thought.
Thank God it’s not China or Russia!

It’s
going to be awkward knowing what country it is but not knowing who the
terrorists are. The existence of this information, right now, is itself a
problem. How long before it
leaks? If I can control it, do I want to
keep it secret or tell the country and the world right away? When do I want the
NSC to know? Pretty soon, because I can’t get the full benefit of these good
minds if I withhold information.

As he had aboard Marine One, Martin felt
events running away from his control. Then his private smart phone vibrated. He
saw it was Ella and, with a gesture to Bart, left the room.

“Rick, Dottie told me you’d gotten a call
from Rog Phelps. My curiosity is killing me!”

“Yep! I think you can imagine what he had
to say, most of it, anyway. I nearly passed him off on Bart, but figured in the
circumstances I ought to at least
listen
to the Democratic party chairman, even if he did try to block our nomination
last year.”

“Let me guess. He was urging prudence,
statesmanship, multilateralism—that sort of thing.”

“That about sums it up. He cautioned me
not to get the country into another preconceived war of choice, as he put it,
which will infuriate the base and drag our party down for years.”

“So after we’ve been attacked and tens of
thousands of Americans murdered, Roger’s main concern is the politics of it!”

“Well, Ella, he’d probably say that’s
because managing the politics is his job and that’s best done unemotionally. I
grant you he’s not very credible to us—he was so wrong about our decision to
run—but his message matters. We don’t want to go off half-cocked, seeing
everything through some familiar framework of us versus them that may not fit
this situation.”

“Look, Rick, we’re not starting from a
clean slate. America
had several deadly enemies
before
Las
Vegas was bombed. Not everybody is innocent until proven guilty—you can’t
disregard what was done and said before Las
Vegas. We weren’t attacked by men from Mars! I’m
betting we’ll find it was a group we already know. When that happens—”

“Ella, when that happens, we will decide
what to do about it.”

“Rick, has it already happened?”

“I’m sorry but I have to go. I ducked out
of an NSC meeting. Love you.”

“Love you, too.”

Ella put her phone down and exhaled, her
cheeks puffing as if blowing out a candle.
The
murder of Las Vegas
gets to me. Evil threatens my family and my people again. I’ve seen a society
destroyed by the failure of good men to defeat evil men. It’s not the same for
Rick . . . He’s put those scenes of Las
Vegas away in a box. I want them on the table, in
front of him like they’re in front of me. I’ve got to get him out of his
head!

Rick slid back into his seat knowing Ella
realized he had ducked her question, but not ready for the conversation they
would have if she knew what the spooks had told him. While he was away Scott
Hitzleberger had taken over from Hendricks.

“At several points in the process of
turning fissionable material into a bomb, the uranium or plutonium acquires
characteristics, or tags if you will, that are unique to the particular
manufacturing process. Uranium ore contains impurities—we call them trace
elements—indicating where it was mined. Ore
is crushed and mixed with acid, creating uranium oxide. To get the high
concentration of U-235 required for a nuclear explosion, uranium oxide gas is
spun through centrifuges. Then the U-235 is recovered as a solid that is
compacted and machined into two or more pieces of uranium the right shape and
size to produce a nuclear explosion if brought together.”

Hitzleberger’s hands mimicked squeezing
an object.

“This manufacturing process causes the
uranium in
a
bomb to have a distinctive mix of
isotopes—U-238, -235, -232 if it’s reprocessed fuel—plus traces of the
impurities in the ore. When a nuke detonates, only about one percent of the
bomb material is actually consumed. I know that’s amazing, but we have data
from sixty-plus bomb tests in the Pacific and in Nevada. We know exactly what happens when a
nuclear weapon explodes, as do the other major nuclear powers: Britain, France,
Russia and China.”

The CIA director paused for a swallow of
coffee from a paper cup bearing the presidential seal, then resumed.

 
“So, ninety-nine percent of the bomb is among
the debris and fallout of the explosion and—again because of many tests—the
techniques for collecting and analyzing the debris are well understood. Another
amazing but well-documented fact is that the isotopic composition of the
uranium debris is virtually identical to its pre-explosion state. In addition,
trace elements of the uranium ore’s impurities can be detected.

“Plutonium is created by nuclear
reactors, using various methods. For now I’ll just say this makes the tags on
debris of a plutonium weapon more distinct and easier to match than those of a
uranium bomb.

“Bottom line: every nuke has a signature.

“For both types of weapons the
identification technique is conceptually like fingerprinting, or identification
from iris patterns. It’s not especially demanding scientifically, once the data
have been collected . . . and the Paternity Project has been collecting that
data for more than thirty years.

 
“Questions when you are ready, Mr. President.”
Hitzleberger sat down.

Griffith
ignored his president and spoke, drawing
several expressions of disbelief: “So tell us: who are the bastards that
provided the bomb?”

 
Wat
ching Martin
,
Hitzleberger followed instructions. “We’re still running tests and collecting
additional samples. One thing we learned right away: it was a plutonium
weapon.”

Rick said, “Bruce, once we have the
report, naturally we’ll all want to concentrate on what to do next. But right
now, I need your help digging into the credibility of Paternity. With all due
respect to Aaron and Scott, who weren’t involved, I remember when the Agency
said finding Saddam’s WMD would be a slam dunk. We need to consider a huge
issue: What reliance are we going to place on the results when we get them? And
how will we convince others?”

Battista cleared her throat, something
that Dorn always felt was contrived and annoying, then spoke. “Science is all
about challenge. One lab produces a result and other labs rush to see whether
they get the same result, independently. Scientists argue ferociously before
they accept someone’s hypothesis. Think global warming. If we present this as a
purely scientific judgment, no matter how strong the evidence, we’re going to
get a lot of pushback! So, we should also be asking what other information
would point to the bomb’s origin.”

She’s
right
, Dorn thought;
despite
her affectations she has a
top-notch mind
. He said, “Well, we should certainly do what any good
detective does: see who had motive and opportunity. Also, the old cui bono
question—who benefits?”

Griffith
said, “I’m betting this weapon changed
hands for money, a lot of money. If we follow the money, it will lead to
somebody. If money confirms science, we’re looking better.”

“So there may be some other indicators,
beyond Paternity,” said Martin. “But let’s focus for a moment on the scientific
case.” He shifted his gaze to Hitzleberger as he spoke. “Scott, let’s start
with reproducibility.”

“Sir, we’re addressing that right now.
We’ve got several teams working independently with the samples and the
database.”

“Yeah, that’s good, but I meant
non-government labs. How much sample material do you have? Enough to make some
broadly available to the scientific community? If not that, then, say, to three
or four other governments?”

“Sir, there’s plenty of material within
the fallout area. And airborne particles will circle the world up in the
troposphere in quantities suitable for sampling for at least twenty days.”

“So that means,” said Battista, “we don’t
have to provide samples. Others can collect them independently.”
 

 
“That’s right, Anne,” said Hendricks. “And
that’s exactly how it used to work. We’d do a test, or the Russians or the
Chinese would, and the others would launch collection aircraft. American
engineers became expert at deducing the power and even the designs of others’
nukes. I’m sure the Russians, Brits, French, and probably the Chinese did, too.
Since the end of atmospheric testing, in the sixties, most of those other
sampling organizations have probably been disbanded, but the knowledge is there
to reconstitute them quickly.”

Griffith
leaned forward. “OK, that raises a
potential problem. Is this analysis demanding scientifically? I mean, suppose,
say, the French scientists don’t have good enough equipment, you know, not as
sensitive maybe, so they get different results?”

After a glance at Hendricks, Hitzleberger
responded. “The main scientific technique is spectroscopy, which is widely used
in industry and science. I don’t think that will be an issue.”
 
I know
what
will
be an issue,
Hitzleberger
thought
, and I’m not goin’ there!

But Easterly did: “Analyzing a sample is
only half the process. They’ve got to have something for comparison, and unless
it’s the same as our standard, there won’t be a match. Scott, can we reproduce
our standards, or let others use them?”

To Hitzleberger’s enormous relief,
Hendricks stepped in. “No, Eric, we can’t! The samples came into our possession
by extremely sensitive collection methods and through irreplaceable sources.
They’re items like copies of reactor operating records and tiny amounts of
reactor fuel. To be used authoritatively, each must be identified as to time
and place obtained. That information will compromise our sources.

“Let me make a point: Paternity isn’t
static. As current nuclear powers develop new weapons and others, like Iran, edge closer—Iran may have untested weapons
now—we require new samples. For example, Pakistan’s current warheads use
uranium. If they go to plutonium, we need to update our sample library. We
can’t keep Paternity ready if we reveal our sources and methods.”

The room was silent, all aware that
Hendricks would not be moved on this, except by the president, who said nothing.

Understanding the president’s silence,
Dorn moved them to a different question. “There’s more to the sources than
their identity. There’s the question of reliability. I remember some Iraqi
scientist, who was the main source of information tying Saddam to an active
biological weapons program, turned out to be bogus. How are we gonna handle the
reliability issue?”

“We point to three instances when
Paternity was validated,” replied the DNI. “In 1998 the Paks tested six weapons
underground. A plume of debris escaped, and we flew a U-2 collection aircraft
through it. Analysis demonstrated, to President Clinton’s satisfaction, that
some of the HEU in those warheads was of Chinese origin and identified the
specific facility that produced it. He had Madeline Albright call in the
Chinese Ambassador and read the riot act, backing it up with specifics. We
learned a couple of years later that the Chinese halted all nuclear cooperation
with the Paks.

“When the North Koreans announced in 2006
they had tested a nuclear weapon underground we collected a sample the same
way. Their bomb was plutonium and we got an exact match to the reactor fuel
reprocessing facility at Yongbyon. Incidentally, we also determined that the
weapon didn’t work well; the yield was very low, probably because they didn’t
have a good understanding of beryllium tamping. We repeated that analysis when
they tested again, in 2009.”