Mike's Election Guide (17 page)

Foster ran his campaign on a few key issues, including withdrawing from Iraq, tax breaks for the middle class, and enacting a system of universal healthcare. He also was clearly running a campaign of change with regard to how the Bush administration has handled issues of national security, arguing against giving immunity to telephone companies that spied on American citizens and against warrantless wiretapping.

Oberweis trotted out a traditional GOP platform of less government and more tax breaks, as well as the hot-button issue of illegal immigration. But it wasn’t hot-button enough to persuade voters.

Two months later Republicans witnessed another fissure open up in their formerly rock-solid base. In a Louisiana district that includes Baton Rouge and hadn’t sent a Democrat to the Capitol since 1974, Don Cazayoux pulled off an upset over Republican challenger Woody Jenkins. The seat had been held by 20-year-incumbent Richard Baker, who jumped ship for K Street. Dems didn’t even bother to field a challenger for Baker in 2006.

Cazayoux is pro-gun and anti-abortion, which seems to be the minimum criteria for any Democratic candidate hoping to win in the Deep South. Although he’s a social conservative, Cazayoux toes the Party lines when it comes to education and healthcare. Republicans tried to paint Cazayouz as a tax-happy liberal and linked him to Obama in television ads. But the Southern electorate seems to be wising up to GOP scare tactics.

The final, and perhaps biggest, blow in this Democratic trifecta came when Mississippi’s Travis Childers won a seat vacated by Republican Roger Wicker, who had held the seat since 1995, defeating Greg Davis by 8 percentage points. Bush won 62 percent of the vote in the district in 2004. Childers, a social conservative, is anti-abortion. So was his Republican opponent. Childers is a staunch supporter of gun rights. So was Davis. So what was the difference between the two candidates? Childers opposed the war in Iraq. Davis supported it.

Republicans spent nearly a million dollars on ads tying Childers to Obama and even to Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but the plan seems to have backfired, as it appeared to bring out more black voters than usual. And those votes went Childers’ way. Heck, they even called on their knight in shining armor, Vice President Dick Cheney, to ride into town and give his blessing to Davis. And when things started looking really desperate, they pulled out the nuclear option: First Lady Laura Bush. Not even the former librarian, in a recorded message sent to voters throughout the district, could woo enough Mississippians to vote for Davis.

What happened? According to Jack Bass, who has written extensively on Southern politics, the Democratic victories in the two traditional Republican strongholds in the South “suggest a region in transformation, with dynamic economic growth, an expanded black middle class, the arrival of millions of white migrants, the return of scores of thousands of African-American expatriates, and an emerging native white generation with little or no memory of racial segregation.” Or, more to the point, it suggests BIG TROUBLE for the Republicans, who have for too long relied on racism and religious extremism in the Deep South and elsewhere.

What do Republicans have to say about their situation? Let’s listen in:

Rep. Tom Davis wrote a 20-page memo to his Republican colleagues saying that “the Republican brand is in the trash can . . . if we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf.”

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich: “The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti-Rev. Wright . . . campaign, they are simply going to fail,” Gingrich said. “This model has already been tested with disastrous results.”

And: “Either congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November.”

Suffer might be too polite a word. There’s the potential here for a political bloodbath. Here’s a look at 30 House seats we could possibly win—if we do the work that needs to be done . . .

ALABAMA’S 2ND DISTRICT

Bobby Bright

State Rep. Jay Love is on his way to winning the Republican nomination for Terry Everett’s open seat after a primary battle with State Senator Harri Anne Smith. Before entering politics, Love made his fortune by operating 16 Subway Sandwich franchises, opening his first shop in 1992. He’s now pumped at least $500,000 of his sandwich money into this primary race. Among his legislative accomplishments was the sponsoring of the Unborn Victims of Violence Act and a bill to prevent kids from being exposed to violent or sexually explicit videogames.

Popular Montgomery Mayor
Bobby Bright
is the Democrat running in this district with a 29 percent African-American population. He stands a good chance of snatching yet another “safe” seat away from the Republicans. Bright considers himself a “social conservative,” who’s “pro-life, pro-gun” and “strong on military.” Well, okay, it’s Alabama. Chalk up one sure win for the Dems.

ALASKA’S LONE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Ethan Berkowitz

The Alaska Republican corruption racket is finally going out of business. Senator Ted Stevens and 18-term Republican Representative Don Young are both tainted by a federal corruption investigation, so Alaska Republicans are scrambling to hold on to their long-held seats in Washington. There has even been some infighting among the GOP, as Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell shocked the party by announcing his candidacy for Young’s seat. The primary takes place after this book is published, and polls showed Parnell and Young in a statistical dead heat.

In addition to the FBI corruption investigation, Alaska’s lone representative to the U.S. House is under scrutiny by the Justice Department for changing the wording of a $10-million earmark in a 2005 transportation bill—
after
the bill had already been approved by both houses of Congress but before the President signed it into law. The edit benefited a major donor to Young’s campaign.

The way things look like right now, all Republican challenger Sean Parnell has to do is show up at the congressional primary and he’ll beat the scandal-tainted Young. Parnell is currently serving as Lt. Gov., is a lawyer, and is a staunch social conservative who wants to leave healthcare in the hands of “the market” (translation: apply a little mascara, rouge, and lipstick to our moribund system).

The Democrats are resting their hopes on former state House Minority Leader
Ethan Berkowitz
(he of the famed Fairbanks Berkowitzes, not the lesser-known Nome Berkowitzes). He supports withdrawing the troops from Iraq, saying that “our continued presence [there] isn’t making us any safer.” Unlike most Democrats, but in line with his Alaskan constituents, he supports drilling in ANWR.

ARIZONA’S 1ST DISTRICT

Ann Kirkpatrick

The Republicans are trying to hold on to a seat vacated by Rep. Rick Renzi, who faces 35 counts of corruption in federal courts. The party’s top recruit to succeed Renzi decided to quit the race early, so Republicans have been desperate to find a good candidate to replace the ethically-challenged Renzi.

Sydney Hay is the likely Republican candidate. Hay, a former conservative talk radio host, is the president of the Arizona Mining Association. She says she was “inspired by the Reagan revolution” and is “concerned about the coarsening culture in America.” She opposes a woman’s right to an abortion and supports school voucher programs. Her proposal for addressing the nation’s healthcare crisis is straight out of the health insurance industry’s play book—encouraging investment in health saving accounts, reducing the ability of lawyers to sue, and encouraging healthcare “consumers” to “shop around.”

Democratic candidate
Ann Kirkpatrick
is a former State Representative and has the support of popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano. After earning a law degree, Kirkpatrick became the first female Deputy County Attorney of Coconino County and later became City Attorney of Sedona. She’s a mother, has served her community as a legislator, teacher, and a member of many local organizations such as the United Way of Northern Arizona and the Board of Directors of Big Sisters. Emily’s List quotes her as saying that “Washington needs to start working for people again and focus on what really matters—like preserving our open spaces and way of life, while creating jobs, restoring fiscal responsibility, and improving our schools.” She calls the war in Iraq a “disaster” and says we must make it a top priority to end our involvement in it. She has worked for equal pay for women and minorities, and the Sierra Club has given her an A for her environmental record. She doesn’t run a mining association, but my guess is Ann Kirkpatrick would strip-mine Congress of its BS if she were elected.

CALIFORNIA’S 4TH DISTRICT

Charlie Brown

Republican candidate Tom McClintock has been involved in California politics for several years. He’s currently a State Senator and has made losing bids in the 2003 gubernatorial recall election and the 2006 lieutenant governor campaign. He loves capitalism and wants the rich to keep their money while the country goes broke. His love of money has led him to take advantage of a tax-free per diem entitled to California legislators who live more than 50 miles from the capital. The problem is, McClintock lives only 14 miles from the capital. During his years in elected office in California he’s raked in $306,000 in per diem money.

The issues McClintock is most heavily involved in are economic and tax policies, where he is a “Club for Growth”-certified conservative. He receives A ratings from all of California’s big business, antitax interest groups as well as straight A’s from the California Republican Assembly, who support candidates with “unwavering Republican principles.” He promises to support making the Bush tax cuts for the rich permanent and “reduce the size of the federal government.”

Democratic candidate
Charlie Brown
is a 26-year veteran of the U.S. Air Force and a 22-year member of the Sierra Club. He opposed the Iraq war from the beginning and came close to winning this seat in the 2006 elections. With the retirement of Republican Rep. Doolittle (who is under investigation for his ties to imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff) and a big year for Democrats approaching, he’s in a good position to take this seat for the Democrats.